Jordan Thompson and Rafael Nadal will face off in the quarter of the Brisbane International for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 8:00 pm on PAT RAFTER ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.177
Jordan Thompson -> 4.95
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Jordan Thompson vs. Rafael Nadal
This will be the 3rd time that Jordan Thompson and Rafael Nadal clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Nadal won 6-2 6-2 6-2 in the 1st round in at the French Open back in 2022.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson – French Open 23-May-2022
Jordan Thompson
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32-21 | 23-11 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-28 | 22-15 | 0-3 | 7-4 | 12-6 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-26 | 18-14 | 2-6 | 8-1 | 12-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 23-25 | 10-11 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 9-5 | 2-2 |
| 2020 | 12-13 | 6-6 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 55, the Australian got to the quarter after beating Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 6-2 and Ugo Humbert w/o.
In the 2nd round, Jordan defeated Humbert (w/o). During the match, Thompson and Humbert scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 55 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Jordan was not very aggressive to strike just winners.
Talking about the service games, Thompson was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults. Jordan Thompson conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of his first serves in, win 0% (0) of the points behind his 1st serve and 0% (0) on the 2nd serve.
Thompson has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (341-230). 1-0 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Thompson has a compiled 193-124 match record in the last years on hard.
Thompson has an overall 1-0 win-loss record in 2024, 1-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Brisbane
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-7 | 2-1 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 672, Rafael reached the quarter after beating Dominic Thiem 7-5 6-1 and Jason Murray Kubler 6-1 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Rafael had a good straight sets win against Murray Kubler (6-1 6-2). During the match Nadal scored 58 points vs Murray Kubler’s 34. Nadal was pretty aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, Nadal managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Rafael Nadal was very efficient on serve to win 80% (24/30) of his 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Murray Kubler 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rafael hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 62% of the points he played.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 2-0 win-loss record in 2024, 2-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Thompson | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 34 |
| Pts | 60-40 | 119-73 |
| Total Points | 100 | 192 |
| Winners | 23 | 52 |
| %Winners | 38% | 44% |
Thompson played 1 match while Nadal competed in 2 matches. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Thompson has played 2 set(s) less than Nadal (2 vs 4). Therefore, Thompson played 17 games less than Nadal. The Australian scored 23 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard bagged 52 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Thompson | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 28/46 | 61/92 |
| %1st in | 61% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 23/28 | 52/61 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 85% |
| 2nd pts | 11/18 | 22/31 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 71% |
Thompson recorded 7 aces . Nadal bagged 7 aces (3.5 per match). Thompson won 82% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Nadal won 85% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 71% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Thompson | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 7 |
| Converted | 4/8 | 7/12 |
| % Converted | 50% | 58% |
| Conceded | 1 | 4 |
| Saved | 0 | 4 |
| % Saved | 0% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
The Australian broke his opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. Rafael broke his opponents 7 times with a 58% conversion rate. Nadal was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 4 break points.
| Thompson | ||||
| R1 Vukic |
R2 Humbert |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | – | 17 | |
| pts | 60-40 | – | 60-40 | |
| Total points | 100 | – | 100 | |
| Winners | 23 | – | 23 | |
| %Winners | 38% | – | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 7 | – | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | – | 1 | |
| 1st in | 28/46 | – | 28/46 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | – | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 23/28 | – | 23/28 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | – | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/18 | – | 11/18 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | – | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | – | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | – | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | 50% | – | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | – | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | – | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | – | 1 | |
| Nadal | ||||
| R1 Thiem |
R2 Murray Kubler |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 15 | 34 | |
| pts | 61-39 | 58-34 | 119-73 | |
| Total points | 100 | 92 | 192 | |
| Winners | 28 | 24 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 41% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 31/46 | 30/46 | 61/92 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 65% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 28/31 | 24/30 | 52/61 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 80% | 85% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/15 | 10/16 | 22/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 80% | 63% | 71% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/6 | 7/12 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 67% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 4/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WLLWWWWWLW
LWLWWWWLLW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Jordan ThompsonThompson (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rinky HijikataHijikata – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – James DuckworthDuckworth (0-0) – H2H and prediction
