Alex De Minaur and Novak Djokovic will square off in the final of the China Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on Court 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.5
Alex De Minaur -> 2.57
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic
This will be the 5th time that Alex De Minaur and Novak Djokovic fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Djokovic (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Djokovic won 1-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 in the 4th round in at the Wimbledon back in 2025.
Highlights Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur – Wimbledon 07-July-2025
Alex De Minaur
40 - 18win/loss
9
5
WWWWWWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40-18 | 19-9 | 7-6 | 6-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, the Australian got to the final after beating Mariano Navone 7-6(4) 6-2, Quentin Halys 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5, Andrey Rublev 1-6 6-2 6-3 and Hubert Hurkacz 6-4 3-2 ret..
In the semifinal against Hurkacz, De Minaur had a free pass after Hurkacz retired on a 6-4 3-2 . scoreline.
De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (403-227). 19-9 on hard in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, De Minaur has a composed 199-97 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 6-3 6-2.
The Australian has an aggregate 40-18 win-loss record in 2026, 19-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2025. See his history.
Novak Djokovic
18 - 7win/loss
11
1
WWWWLLLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18-7 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 39-11 | 21-7 | 9-3 | 4-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-9 | 15-5 | 16-3 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, the Serbian reached the final after defeating Nuno Borges 6-3 7-6(2), Bu Yunchaokete 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2, Alexander Zverev 4-6 6-4 6-4 and Daniil Medvedev 7-5 5-3 def..
In the semifinal, Novak had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (7-5 5-3 def.). During the match Djokovic scored 90 points vs Medvedev’s 76. Novak was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Djokovic bagged 3 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Novak Djokovic lost the serve twice and he saved 16 break points. Furthermore, Djokovic put 64% of his first serves in, winning 71% (41/58) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (13/33) on the 2nd serve. Novak broke Medvedev 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Novak has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
ATP Beijing - Novak Djokovic's projected path
Novak’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in at the Australian Open and Beijing.
Novak has an overall 18-7 win-loss record in 2026, 11-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, he won this tournament 6 times in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 94 | 103 |
| Pts | 334-291 | 366-310 |
| Total Points | 625 | 676 |
| Winners | 138 | 178 |
| %Winners | 41% | 49% |
Both De Minaur and Djokovic played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur lost 2 sets, while Novak Djokovic dropped 2 sets. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Djokovic have played the same amount of sets 11. However, De Minaur played 9 games less than Djokovic. The Australian scored 138 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Novak bagged 178 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 30 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 196/304 | 231/346 |
| %1st in | 64% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 138/196 | 178/231 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 62/108 | 62/115 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 54% |
De Minaur recorded 20 aces (5 per match). Djokovic bagged 30 aces (7.5 per match). De Minaur won 70% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Djokovic won 77% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 10 |
| Converted | 13/34 | 10/24 |
| % Converted | 38% | 42% |
| Conceded | 32 | 32 |
| Saved | 24 | 27 |
| % Saved | 75% | 84% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 5 |
Alex broke his opponents 13 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. The Serbian broke his opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Djokovic conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 84% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||||
| R1 Navone |
R2 Halys |
1/4 Rublev |
1/2 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-2 | 3-6 7-65 7-5 | 1-6 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 3-2 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 34 | 24 | 15 | 94 | |
| pts | 80-61 | 111-111 | 82-74 | 61-45 | 334-291 | |
| Total points | 141 | 222 | 156 | 106 | 625 | |
| Winners | 31 | 47 | 36 | 24 | 138 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% | 44% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 44/74 | 69/107 | 53/78 | 30/45 | 196/304 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 64% | 68% | 67% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 31/44 | 47/69 | 36/53 | 24/30 | 138/196 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 68% | 68% | 80% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/30 | 21/38 | 13/25 | 9/15 | 62/108 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 55% | 52% | 60% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | 4/11 | 3/9 | 13/34 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | 36% | 33% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 32 | |
| Saved | 9/10 | 3/6 | 9/12 | 3/4 | 24 | |
| Saved % | 90% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| Djokovic | ||||||
| R1 Borges |
R2 Yunchaokete |
1/4 Zverev |
1/2 Medvedev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-62 | 4-6 7-62 6-2 | 4-6 6-4 6-4 | 7-5 5-3 def. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 31 | 30 | 20 | 103 | |
| pts | 74-59 | 107-90 | 95-85 | 90-76 | 366-310 | |
| Total points | 133 | 197 | 180 | 166 | 676 | |
| Winners | 42 | 42 | 53 | 41 | 178 | |
| %Winners | 57% | 39% | 56% | 46% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 30 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 48/68 | 60/97 | 65/90 | 58/91 | 231/346 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 62% | 72% | 64% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 42/48 | 42/60 | 53/65 | 41/58 | 178/231 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 70% | 82% | 71% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | 27/37 | 13/25 | 13/33 | 62/115 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 73% | 52% | 39% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Converted | 1/2 | 3/7 | 2/5 | 4/10 | 10/24 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 43% | 40% | 40% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 32 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 6/8 | 3/4 | 16/18 | 27 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 75% | 89% | 85% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (3-1) – H2H and prediction
