Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka will clash against each other in the 4th round of the China Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on Court 2. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.65
Naomi Osaka -> 2.22
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka
This will be the 8th time that Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka square off. The head to head is 4-3 for Muchova (see full H2H stats), but Osaka has a winning record of 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Muchova won 7-6(4) 6-4 in the quarter in at the Wimbledon back in July 2026.
Highlights Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka – Wimbledon 07-July-2026
Karolina Muchova
41 - 10win/loss
8
6
WWWWLWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41-10 | 22-5 | 6-3 | 2-0 | 11-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 26-17 | 23-13 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Karolina got to the 4th round after beating Katie Boulter 7-6(3) 6-1 and Liudmila Samsonova 4-6 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round against Samsonova, The Czech recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 6-2). During the match, Muchova scored 96 points vs Samsonova’s 82. The Czech was extremely aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about the service games, Muchova recorded 14 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Karolina Muchova was extremely efficient on serve to win 74% (42/57) of her 1st serve and 58% (15/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Muchova broke Samsonova 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Czech has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 57% of the points she played.
WTA Beijing - Karolina Muchova's projected path
Muchova has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 68% of her matches (254-117). 22-5 on hard in 2026. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Muchova has a composed 140-56 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Doha where she defeated Victoria Mboko in the final 6-4 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she beat Naomi Osaka in the final 6-1 1-0 ret..
Muchova has an overall 41-10 win-loss record in 2026, 22-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2024. See her history.
Naomi Osaka
30 - 11win/loss
17
1
WWLWWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-11 | 15-6 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 35-15 | 24-9 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 22-18 | 13-10 | 5-5 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 14-9 | 13-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Naomi reached the 4th round after beating Maria Timofeeva 6-3 3-6 6-3 and Sara Bejlek 7-6(4) 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Naomi had a good straight sets win against Bejlek (7-64 6-4). During the match Osaka scored 90 points vs Bejlek’s 80. Naomi was pretty aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about serving, Osaka was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Naomi Osaka lost the serve twice and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Osaka put 69% of her first serves in, winning 77% (46/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (10/27) on the 2nd serve. Osaka broke Bejlek 3 times after converting 27% of her break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Naomi has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
WTA Beijing - Naomi Osaka's projected path
The Japanese’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Bad Homburg.
Osaka has an aggregate 30-11 win-loss record in 2026, 15-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, she won this tournament once in 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 48 | 50 |
| Pts | 164-126 | 182-162 |
| Total Points | 290 | 344 |
| Winners | 64 | 89 |
| %Winners | 39% | 49% |
Both Muchova and Osaka played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Karolina Muchova dropped 1 set, while Naomi Osaka conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Muchova and Osaka have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Muchova played 2 games less than Osaka. The Czech scored 64 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese managed to score 89 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 19 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 9.5 | 1 |
| 1st in | 84/135 | 120/185 |
| %1st in | 62% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 64/84 | 89/120 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 32/51 | 28/65 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 43% |
Muchova bagged 19 aces (9.5 per match). Osaka managed to score 2 aces (1 per match). Muchova won 76% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Muchova | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 7 |
| Converted | 7/13 | 7/19 |
| % Converted | 54% | 37% |
| Conceded | 8 | 19 |
| Saved | 5 | 14 |
| % Saved | 63% | 74% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 |
Muchova broke her opponents 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. The Czech surrendered her serve 3 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. Osaka broke her opponents 7 times with a 37% conversion rate. Naomi conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded.
| Muchova | ||||
| R2 Boulter |
R3 Samsonova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-1 | 4-6 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 28 | 48 | |
| pts | 68-44 | 96-82 | 164-126 | |
| Total points | 112 | 178 | 290 | |
| Winners | 22 | 42 | 64 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 44% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 14 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 27/52 | 57/83 | 84/135 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 69% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 22/27 | 42/57 | 64/84 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 74% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/25 | 15/26 | 32/51 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 58% | 63% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 4/9 | 7/13 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 44% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 71% | 36% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Osaka | ||||
| R2 Timofeeva |
R3 Bejlek |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | 7-64 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 23 | 50 | |
| pts | 92-82 | 90-80 | 182-162 | |
| Total points | 174 | 170 | 344 | |
| Winners | 43 | 46 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 51% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 60/98 | 60/87 | 120/185 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 69% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 43/60 | 46/60 | 89/120 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 77% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/38 | 10/27 | 28/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 37% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 3/11 | 7/19 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 27% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 9 | 19 | |
| Saved | 7/10 | 7/9 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 70% | 78% | 74% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Ann LiLi – Belinda BencicBencic (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Donna VekicVekic (4-6 7-60 6-2) – See score progression
- Iva JovicJovic – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (7-63 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Alina CharaevaCharaeva – Sonay KartalKartal (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (4-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Daria SnigurSnigur – Taylah PrestonPreston (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Viktorija GolubicGolubic (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Sinja KrausKraus – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Sara BejlekBejlek (7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Polina KudermetovaKudermetova (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Nikola BartunkovaBartunkova – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Alina CharaevaCharaeva – Sonay KartalKartal (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (7-6(3) 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Ann LiLi – Belinda BencicBencic (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Iva JovicJovic – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Donna VekicVekic (4-6 7-6(0) 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Elise MertensMertens (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alina CharaevaCharaeva – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Daria SnigurSnigur – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (4-3) – H2H and prediction
- Sinja KrausKraus – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
