Frances Tiafoe and Andrea Pellegrino will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:00 pm on BNP PARIBAS ARENA. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Frances Tiafoe who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Frances Tiafoe is the pick to win this match.
Frances Tiafoe -> 1.49
Andrea Pellegrino -> 2.61
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Frances Tiafoe vs. Andrea Pellegrino
There is no head to head record between Frances Tiafoe and Andrea Pellegrino since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Frances Tiafoe
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42-17 | 25-10 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 26-23 | 13-13 | 11-7 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-27 | 21-13 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-21 | 21-10 | 8-4 | 4-5 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-25 | 19-11 | 8-6 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, Tiafoe got to the 3rd round after defeating Ignacio Buse 6-7(5) 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Buse, Tiafoe recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 6-3 6-2). During the match, Tiafoe scored 106 points vs Buse’s 88. Francis was very aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about the service games, Tiafoe recorded 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Frances Tiafoe lost the serve 4 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Tiafoe put 57% of his first serves in, winning 68% (39/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (23/43) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Buse 7 times after converting 54% of his break points (7/13).
ATP Rome - Frances Tiafoe's projected path
Tiafoe has winning record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (299-227). 3-1 on clay in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Tiafoe has a composed 66-49 match record in the last years on clay.
Tiafoe’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Acapulco.
Tiafoe has an aggregate 18-8 win-loss record in 2026, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Andrea Pellegrino
16 - 11win/loss
144
109
LWLLWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30-22 | 1-3 | 28-18 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 37-24 | 0-2 | 37-18 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-30 | 0-2 | 24-26 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-29 | 2-2 | 28-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-28 | 0-3 | 27-20 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 155, Andrea reached the 3rd round after defeating Hugo Gaston 6-1 6-3, Martin Landaluce 6-3 2-6 6-2, Luca Nardi 4-6 6-3 6-3 and Arthur Fils 4-0 ret..
In the 2nd round against Fils, the Italian had a free pass after Fils retired on a 4-0 . scoreline.
Andrea has an overall 16-11 win-loss record in 2026, 16-10 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Tiafoe | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 30 | 73 |
| Pts | 106-88 | 262-208 |
| Total Points | 194 | 470 |
| Winners | 39 | 95 |
| %Winners | 37% | 36% |
Tiafoe played 1 match while Pellegrino competed in 4 matches. Pellegrino started his run from the qualifications while Tiafoe had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Frances Tiafoe lost 1 set, while Andrea Pellegrino dropped 2 sets. Tiafoe has played 7 set(s) less than Pellegrino (3 vs 10). Therefore, Tiafoe played 43 games less than Pellegrino. The American scored 39 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian managed to score 95 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Tiafoe | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 2.3 |
| 1st in | 57/100 | 130/227 |
| %1st in | 57% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 39/57 | 95/130 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 23/43 | 54/97 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 56% |
Tiafoe scored 2 aces . Pellegrino recorded 9 aces (2.3 per match). Tiafoe won 68% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Pellegrino won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Tiafoe | Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 16 |
| Converted | 7/13 | 16/34 |
| % Converted | 54% | 47% |
| Conceded | 5 | 15 |
| Saved | 1 | 9 |
| % Saved | 20% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 6 |
Tiafoe broke his opponent 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. Francis dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 20% of the break points that he conceded. Andrea broke his opponents 16 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Tiafoe | |||
| R2 Buse |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |
| pts | 106-88 | 106-88 | |
| Total points | 194 | 194 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 57/100 | 57/100 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 39/57 | 39/57 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/43 | 23/43 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/13 | 7/13 | |
| Converted % | 54% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 1/5 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 20% | 20% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
| Pellegrino | ||||||
| Q1 Gaston |
Q3 Landaluce |
R1 Nardi |
R2 Fils |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-3 2-6 6-2 | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | 4-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 25 | 28 | 4 | 73 | |
| pts | 59-41 | 89-78 | 96-84 | 18-5 | 262-208 | |
| Total points | 100 | 167 | 180 | 23 | 470 | |
| Winners | 23 | 32 | 35 | 5 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 36% | 36% | 28% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 30/46 | 44/81 | 49/90 | 7/10 | 130/227 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 54% | 54% | 70% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 32/44 | 35/49 | 5/7 | 95/130 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 73% | 71% | 71% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 18/37 | 24/41 | 3/3 | 54/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 49% | 59% | 100% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/11 | 4/11 | 2/3 | 16/34 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 45% | 36% | 67% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 15 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 6/9 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 67% | 50% | – | 167% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
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- Dino PrizmicPrizmic – Ugo HumbertHumbert (6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Luciano DarderiDarderi – Tommy PaulPaul (3-6 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (5-7 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alexander BlockxBlockx (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mariano NavoneNavone – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Thiago Agustin TiranteAgustin Tirante (2-1) – H2H and prediction
