Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will play each other in the final of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 18th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.83
Jannik Sinner -> 2.03
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 18th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner fight against each other. The head to head is 11-6 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on clay.
The last time that they played, Sinner won 7-6(4) 7-5 in the final in Nitto atp finals back in 2025.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz – Nitto atp finals 16-November-2025
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26-4 | 21-3 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Spaniard got to the final after beating Sebastian Baez 6-1 6-3, Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1 4-6 6-3, Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-0 and Valentin Vacherot 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Vacherot (6-4 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 59 points vs Vacherot’s 51. Alcaraz was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz recorded 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 81% (25/31) of his 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Carlos broke Vacherot 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Carlos Alcaraz's projected path
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 9 years having won 81% of his matches (379-87). 4-0 on clay in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an overall167-36 record in the last 9 years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where he defeated Novak Djokovic in the final 2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5 and in Doha where he overcame Arthur Fils in the final 6-2 6-1.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 21-2 win-loss record in 2026, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44-3 | 19-2 | 18-1 | 0-0 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 58-6 | 24-3 | 11-2 | 15-0 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Italian got to the final after defeating Ugo Humbert 6-3 6-0, Tomas Machac 6-1 6-7(3) 6-3, Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-4 and Alexander Zverev 6-1 6-4.
In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Zverev (6-1 6-4). During the match Sinner scored 60 points vs Zverev’s 33. Jannik was quite aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Sinner scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jannik Sinner was quite effective on serve to win 87% (20/23) of his 1st serve and 75% (12/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jannik was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Zverev 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jannik has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 60% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Jannik Sinner's projected path
His best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 7-6(6) 7-6(4) and in Miami where he beat Jiri Lehecka in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Italian has an aggregate 23-2 win-loss record in 2026, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023 and 2024. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 77 | 80 |
| Pts | 281-214 | 272-182 |
| Total Points | 495 | 454 |
| Winners | 107 | 98 |
| %Winners | 38% | 36% |
Both Alcaraz and Sinner played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Jannik Sinner dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Sinner have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Alcaraz played 3 games less than Sinner. Carlos scored 107 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Jannik made 98 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 146/229 | 122/208 |
| %1st in | 64% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 107/146 | 98/122 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 45/83 | 55/86 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 64% |
Alcaraz bagged 17 aces (4.3 per match). Sinner blasted 14 aces (3.5 per match). Alcaraz won 73% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 18 |
| Converted | 19/36 | 18/28 |
| % Converted | 53% | 64% |
| Conceded | 10 | 5 |
| Saved | 5 | 3 |
| % Saved | 50% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 |
Carlos broke his opponents 19 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Jannik broke his opponents 18 times with a 64% conversion rate. Sinner conceded his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R2 Baez |
R3 Etcheverry |
1/4 Bublik |
1/2 Vacherot |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-0 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 26 | 15 | 20 | 77 | |
| pts | 65-42 | 98-83 | 59-38 | 59-51 | 281-214 | |
| Total points | 107 | 181 | 97 | 110 | 495 | |
| Winners | 25 | 40 | 17 | 25 | 107 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 41% | 29% | 42% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 30/45 | 60/89 | 25/44 | 31/51 | 146/229 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | 57% | 61% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 25/30 | 40/60 | 17/25 | 25/31 | 107/146 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 67% | 68% | 81% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/15 | 16/29 | 11/19 | 12/20 | 45/83 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 55% | 58% | 60% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/12 | 6/10 | 3/4 | 19/36 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 42% | 60% | 75% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 4/6 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 67% | 50% | 0% | 29% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Sinner | ||||||
| R2 Humbert |
R3 Machac |
1/4 Auger-Aliassime |
1/2 Zverev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-1 6-73 6-3 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 29 | 19 | 17 | 80 | |
| pts | 55-29 | 92-72 | 65-48 | 60-33 | 272-182 | |
| Total points | 84 | 164 | 113 | 93 | 454 | |
| Winners | 21 | 31 | 26 | 20 | 98 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 34% | 40% | 33% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 23/37 | 43/75 | 33/57 | 23/39 | 122/208 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 57% | 58% | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 21/23 | 31/43 | 26/33 | 20/23 | 98/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 91% | 72% | 79% | 87% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/14 | 19/32 | 17/24 | 12/16 | 55/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 59% | 71% | 75% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 7/11 | 2/5 | 4/4 | 18/28 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 64% | 40% | 100% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 100% | – | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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