Carlos Alcaraz and Valentin Vacherot will square off in the semifinal of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:30 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.065
Valentin Vacherot -> 8.6
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At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot
There is no head to head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Valentin Vacherot since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26-4 | 21-3 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Alcaraz got to the semifinal after beating Sebastian Baez 6-1 6-3, Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1 4-6 6-3 and Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-0.
In the quarter, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Bublik (6-3 6-0). During the match, Alcaraz scored 59 points vs Bublik’s 38. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz fired 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 57% of his first serves in, winning 68% (17/25) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the 2nd serve. Carlos broke Bublik 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 1 set in this event to win 58% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Carlos Alcaraz's projected path
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 9 years having won 81% of his matches (378-87). 3-0 on clay in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has a composed166-36 win-loss record in the last 9 years on clay.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final 2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5 and in Doha where he defeated Arthur Fils in the final 6-2 6-1.
Carlos has a compiled 20-2 win-loss record in 2026, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Valentin Vacherot
14 - 7win/loss
21
16
LWWLLLLWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18-14 | 10-10 | 6-4 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 45-24 | 18-9 | 24-12 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-13 | 19-3 | 15-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-32 | 6-4 | 49-25 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-22 | 27-12 | 18-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 23 (career-high), Vacherot got to the semifinal after defeating Juan Manuel Cerundolo 5-7 6-2 6-1, Lorenzo Musetti 7-6(6) 7-5, Hubert Hurkacz 6-7(4) 6-3 6-4 and Alex De Minaur 6-4 3-6 6-3.
In the quarter, Vacherot defeated De Minaur (6-4 3-6 6-3). During the match Vacherot scored 95 points vs De Minaur’s 89. Vacherot was pretty aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Vacherot recorded 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Valentin Vacherot lost the serve 3 times and he saved 14 break points. Furthermore, Vacherot put 58% of his first serves in, winning 73% (41/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (17/41) on the 2nd serve. Valentin broke De Minaur 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Valentin has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Valentin Vacherot's projected path
The Monegasque has an overall 14-7 win-loss record in 2026, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2025. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 57 | 112 |
| Pts | 222-163 | 397-350 |
| Total Points | 385 | 747 |
| Winners | 82 | 172 |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% |
Alcaraz played 3 matches while Vacherot competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz lost 1 set, while Valentin Vacherot lost 3 sets. Alcaraz has played 4 set(s) less than Vacherot (7 vs 11). Therefore, Alcaraz played 55 games less than Vacherot. Carlos scored 82 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Monegasque bagged 172 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 20 |
| Avg per match | 4.7 | 5 |
| 1st in | 115/178 | 231/376 |
| %1st in | 65% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 82/115 | 172/231 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 33/63 | 67/145 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 46% |
Alcaraz managed to score 14 aces (4.7 per match). Vacherot scored 20 aces (5 per match). Alcaraz won 71% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Vacherot won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 17 |
| Converted | 16/32 | 17/45 |
| % Converted | 50% | 38% |
| Conceded | 9 | 43 |
| Saved | 5 | 33 |
| % Saved | 56% | 77% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 10 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 16 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Spaniard surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. Valentin broke his opponents 17 times with a 38% conversion rate. Vacherot conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||
| R2 Baez |
R3 Etcheverry |
1/4 Bublik |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | 6-3 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 26 | 15 | 57 | |
| pts | 65-42 | 98-83 | 59-38 | 222-163 | |
| Total points | 107 | 181 | 97 | 385 | |
| Winners | 25 | 40 | 17 | 82 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 41% | 29% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 30/45 | 60/89 | 25/44 | 115/178 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | 57% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 25/30 | 40/60 | 17/25 | 82/115 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 67% | 68% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/15 | 16/29 | 11/19 | 33/63 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 55% | 58% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/12 | 6/10 | 16/32 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 42% | 60% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 4/6 | 1/2 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 67% | 50% | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Vacherot | ||||||
| R1 Manuel |
R2 Musetti |
R3 Hurkacz |
1/4 De Minaur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-2 6-1 | 7-66 7-5 | 6-74 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 25 | 32 | 28 | 112 | |
| pts | 101-80 | 89-77 | 112-104 | 95-89 | 397-350 | |
| Total points | 181 | 166 | 216 | 184 | 747 | |
| Winners | 40 | 34 | 57 | 41 | 172 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 38% | 51% | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 55/88 | 43/71 | 77/120 | 56/97 | 231/376 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 61% | 64% | 58% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 40/55 | 34/43 | 57/77 | 41/56 | 172/231 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 79% | 74% | 73% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | 15/28 | 19/43 | 17/41 | 67/145 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 54% | 44% | 41% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 6/18 | 3/9 | 4/8 | 4/10 | 17/45 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | 50% | 40% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 43 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 3/5 | 11/13 | 14/17 | 33 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 60% | 85% | 82% | 97% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Joao FonsecaFonseca (7-5 6-73 6-3) – See score progression
- Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz – Julian Cash/Lloyd GlasspoolCash/Lloyd Glasspool (6-4 7-61) – See score progression
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Alexander BublikBublik (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Hugo Nys/Edouard Roger-VasselinNys/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Harri Heliovaara/Henry PattenHeliovaara/Henry Patten (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Guido Andreozzi/Manuel GuinardAndreozzi/Manuel Guinard – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (6-4 4-6 10-8) – See score progression
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Christian Harrison/Neal SkupskiHarrison/Neal Skupski (6-4 3-6 11-9) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Alexander BublikBublik (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Joao FonsecaFonseca (7-5 6-7(3) 6-3) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jannik SinnerSinner (4-8) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Valentin VacherotVacherot (0-0) – H2H and prediction
