Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik will fight against each other in the quarter of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:00 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.061
Alexander Bublik -> 8.9
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik
There is no head to head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26-4 | 21-3 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Alcaraz reached the quarter after defeating Sebastian Baez 6-1 6-3 and Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1 4-6 6-3.
In the 3rd round, The Spaniard defeated Etcheverry (6-1 4-6 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 98 points vs Etcheverry’s 83. Alcaraz was extremely aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz fired 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 67% of his first serves in, winning 67% (40/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Etcheverry 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Carlos Alcaraz's projected path
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 9 years having won 81% of his matches (377-87). 2-0 on clay in 2026. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a compiled165-36 record in the last 9 years on clay.
His best result of the season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5 and in Doha where he overcame Arthur Fils in the final 6-2 6-1.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 19-2 win-loss record in 2026, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Alexander Bublik
15 - 6win/loss
17
10
LWWLWWWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28-18 | 11-5 | 8-8 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 48-24 | 12-11 | 23-6 | 8-6 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-25 | 10-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Alexander reached the quarter after beating Gael Monfils 6-4 6-4 and Jiri Lehecka 6-2 7-5.
In the 3rd round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Lehecka (6-2 7-5). During the match Bublik scored 66 points vs Lehecka’s 50. Alexander was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Bublik fired 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Alexander Bublik was very efficient on serve to win 89% (32/36) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Kazakhstani broke Lehecka 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alexander hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Alexander Bublik's projected path
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Hong Kong where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 7-6(2) 6-3.
Bublik has a compiled 15-6 win-loss record in 2026, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 42 | 40 |
| Pts | 163-125 | 129-104 |
| Total Points | 288 | 233 |
| Winners | 65 | 56 |
| %Winners | 40% | 43% |
Both Alcaraz and Bublik played 2 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set while Alexander Bublik hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Bublik (5 vs 4). Therefore, Alcaraz played 2 games more than Bublik. Alcaraz scored 65 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Alexander struck 56 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 90/134 | 71/104 |
| %1st in | 67% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 65/90 | 56/71 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 22/44 | 21/33 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 64% |
Alcaraz blasted 11 aces (5.5 per match). Bublik made 9 aces (4.5 per match). Alcaraz won 72% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 6 |
| Converted | 10/22 | 6/14 |
| % Converted | 45% | 43% |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 |
| Saved | 4 | 0 |
| % Saved | 57% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 10 times with a 45% conversion rate. Carlos conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Bublik broke his opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Alexander conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||
| R2 Baez |
R3 Etcheverry |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 26 | 42 | |
| pts | 65-42 | 98-83 | 163-125 | |
| Total points | 107 | 181 | 288 | |
| Winners | 25 | 40 | 65 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 30/45 | 60/89 | 90/134 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 25/30 | 40/60 | 65/90 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 67% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/15 | 16/29 | 22/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 55% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/12 | 10/22 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 42% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 7 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 4/6 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 67% | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bublik | ||||
| R2 Monfils |
R3 Lehecka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | 40 | |
| pts | 63-54 | 66-50 | 129-104 | |
| Total points | 117 | 116 | 233 | |
| Winners | 24 | 32 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 48% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 35/53 | 36/51 | 71/104 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 71% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 24/35 | 32/36 | 56/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 89% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/18 | 8/15 | 21/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 72% | 53% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | 6/14 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Joao FonsecaFonseca – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (6-1 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Alexander BlockxBlockx (7-5 7-64) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Zizou BergsBergs (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Casper RuudRuud (7-5 2-2 ret.) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Tomas MachacMachac (6-1 6-73 6-3) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (6-1 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Alexander BlockxBlockx (7-5 7-6(4)) – See score progression
- Joao FonsecaFonseca – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Zizou BergsBergs (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Casper RuudRuud (7-5 2-2 ret.) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Tomas MachacMachac (6-1 6-7(3) 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Jannik SinnerSinner (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Alexander BublikBublik (0-0) – H2H and prediction
