Cristian Garin and Matteo Arnaldi will play each other in the 1st round of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 4:00 pm on COURT EA DE MASSY. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Cristian Garin who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Cristian Garin is the pick to win this match.
Cristian Garin -> 1.7
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.15
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Cristian Garin vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This will be the 2nd time that Cristian Garin and Matteo Arnaldi face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Arnaldi (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Arnaldi won 2-6 6-4 6-3 in the Rubber 1 in Davis Cup, Group A, Bologna back in 2023.
Cristian Garin
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11-17 | 2-6 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 49-22 | 6-6 | 39-13 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 21-24 | 3-6 | 13-14 | 1-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-25 | 22-12 | 18-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-23 | 4-5 | 9-11 | 1-4 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 100, Garin reached the 1st round after defeating Jesper De Jong 7-5 1-6 6-1 and Nikoloz Basilashvili 7-5 6-0.
In the qualifications, Garin had a good straight sets win against Basilashvili (7-5 6-0). During the match, Garin scored 67 points vs Basilashvili’s 50. Christian was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Garin fired 8 aces and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Cristian Garin lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Garin put 68% of his first serves in, winning 66% (27/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the 2nd serve. Garin broke Basilashvili 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Chilean started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points he played.
ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Cristian Garin's projected path
Garin has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (280-203). 3-2 on clay in 2026. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Garin has an overall 177-102 record in the last years on clay.
The Chilean has an aggregate 3-7 win-loss record in 2026, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20-17 | 4-8 | 14-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2025 | 23-26 | 11-14 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 107, Matteo got to the 1st round after beating Vit Kopriva 2-6 6-3 6-2 and Alexandre Muller 6-1 6-7(4) 6-4.
Matteo has an overall 2-5 win-loss record in 2026, 1-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024 and 2025. See his history.
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H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Garin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 44 | 25 |
| Pts | 144-115 | 80-67 |
| Total Points | 259 | 147 |
| Winners | 56 | 22 |
| %Winners | 39% | 28% |
Garin played 2 matches while Arnaldi competed in 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Cristian Garin lost 1 set, while Matteo Arnaldi conceded 1 set. Garin has played 2 sets more than Arnaldi (5 vs 3). Therefore, Garin played 19 games more than Arnaldi. Christian scored 56 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo made 22 winners (28%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Garin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 5.5 | 0 |
| 1st in | 78/126 | 32/75 |
| %1st in | 62% | 43% |
| 1st pts | 56/78 | 22/32 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 29/48 | 24/43 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 56% |
Garin struck 11 aces (5.5 per match). Arnaldi didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Garin won 72% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Garin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 5 |
| Converted | 8/14 | 5/10 |
| % Converted | 57% | 50% |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 |
| Saved | 6 | 1 |
| % Saved | 67% | 20% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 |
Christian broke his opponents 8 times with a 57% conversion rate. Garin surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Matteo broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 20% of the break points that he conceded.
| Garin | ||||
| Q1 De |
Q3 Basilashvili |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 1-6 6-1 | 7-5 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 18 | 44 | |
| pts | 77-65 | 67-50 | 144-115 | |
| Total points | 142 | 117 | 259 | |
| Winners | 29 | 27 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 40% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 8 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 37/66 | 41/60 | 78/126 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 68% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 29/37 | 27/41 | 56/78 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 66% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/29 | 11/19 | 29/48 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 58% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 5/10 | 8/14 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 50% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 6/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 86% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||
| Q1 Kopriva |
Q3 Muller |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-1 6-74 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 30 | 55 | |
| pts | 80-67 | – | 80-67 | |
| Total points | 147 | 0 | 147 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | ||
| %Winners | 28% | 0% | 28% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | ||
| 1st in | 32/75 | / | 32/75 | |
| % 1st in | 43% | 0% | 43% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | / | 22/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 0% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/43 | / | 24/43 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 0% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | ||
| Converted | 5/10 | / | 5/10 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 0% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | ||
| Saved | 1/5 | 0/ | 1 | |
| Saved % | 20% | – | 10% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | ||
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (6-77 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-2 4-6 7-60) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
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- Christian GarinGarin – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
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- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Casper RuudRuud (1-0) – H2H and prediction
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- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Emilio NavaNava (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Terence AtmaneAtmane – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Francisco ComesanaComesana (0-0) – H2H and prediction
