Luca Castelnuovo and Ye Cong Mo will face off in the qualifications of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 11:30 am on COURT 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luca Castelnuovo who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Luca Castelnuovo is the pick to win this match.
Luca Castelnuovo -> 1.533
Ye Cong Mo -> 2.375
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Prediction and head to head Luca Castelnuovo vs. Ye Cong Mo
This will be the 2nd time that Luca Castelnuovo and Ye Cong Mo square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Castelnuovo (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Castelnuovo won 6-4 6-1 in the semifinal in M15 Shanghai back in 2023.
Luca Castelnuovo
32 - 18win/loss
413
400
LLWLWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43-23 | 32-18 | 3-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-21 | 25-20 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-23 | 22-15 | 4-3 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 2022 | 9-16 | 8-7 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| 2021 | 21-30 | 9-10 | 11-18 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 486, Castelnuovo reached the qualifications after defeating Yuichiro Inui 6-1 4-6 6-1.
In the qualifications, Luca defeated Inui (6-1 4-6 6-1). During the match, Castelnuovo scored 90 points vs Inui’s 70. The Swiss was extremely aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Regarding the service games, Castelnuovo blasted 11 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Luca Castelnuovo lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Castelnuovo put 55% of his first serves in, winning 83% (34/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (14/34) on the 2nd serve. Luca broke Inui 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Castelnuovo has good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 52% of his matches (226-206). 21-14 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Castelnuovo has an aggregate 136-124 match record in the last years on hard.
Luca’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M15 Kayseri,M25 Luzhou and M15 Maanshan.
Castelnuovo has an aggregate 32-18 win-loss record in 2025, 21-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Ye Cong Mo
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-23 | 24-20 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-24 | 22-22 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-20 | 36-18 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-9 | 29-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 718, Cong got to the qualifications after defeating Xing Dao Chen 6-4 7-5.
In the qualifications, Cong had a good straight sets win against Dao Chen (6-4 7-5). During the match Cong scored 67 points vs Dao Chen’s 56. Ye was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Cong managed to score 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Ye Cong Mo was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (30/40) of his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Cong was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Dao Chen 4 times.
The Chinese’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in M25 Shenzhen and M15 Wuning.
Ye has a composed 20-17 win-loss record in 2025, 16-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Castelnuovo | Cong |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 24 | 22 |
| Pts | 90-70 | 67-56 |
| Total Points | 160 | 123 |
| Winners | 34 | 30 |
| %Winners | 38% | 45% |
Both Castelnuovo and Cong played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Luca Castelnuovo surrendered 1 set while Ye Cong Mo hasn’t dropped a set so far. Castelnuovo has played 1 set more than Cong (3 vs 2). Therefore, Castelnuovo played 2 games more than Cong. Luca scored 34 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Cong bagged 30 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Castelnuovo | Cong |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 11 | 5 |
| 1st in | 41/75 | 40/67 |
| %1st in | 55% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 34/41 | 30/40 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 14/34 | 15/27 |
| %2nd pts | 41% | 56% |
Castelnuovo managed to score 11 aces . Cong scored 5 aces . Castelnuovo won 83% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 41% of the points. On the other side, Cong won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Castelnuovo | Cong |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 4 |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/4 |
| % Converted | 46% | 100% |
| Conceded | 10 | 7 |
| Saved | 8 | 5 |
| % Saved | 80% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
Luca broke his opponent 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. Castelnuovo surrendered his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. The Chinese broke his opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Chinese conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Castelnuovo | |||
| Q1 Inui |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 4-6 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 24 | |
| pts | 90-70 | 90-70 | |
| Total points | 160 | 160 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 11 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 41/75 | 41/75 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 34/41 | 34/41 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/34 | 14/34 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 41% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 6/13 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Cong | |||
| Q1 Dao Chen |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 67-56 | 67-56 | |
| Total points | 123 | 123 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 40/67 | 40/67 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 30/40 | 30/40 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/27 | 15/27 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/4 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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