Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will square off in the quarter of the Cincinnati Open for the 12th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:30 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.53
Elena Rybakina -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 12th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina face off. The head to head is 7-4 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-3 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6) in the quarter in Berlin back in June 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Berlin 20-June-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
50 - 9win/loss
1
1
LWWWWLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the quarter after beating Marketa Vondrousova 7-5 6-1, Emma Raducanu 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(5) and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-1 7-5.
In the 4th round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Bouzas Maneiro (6-1 7-5). During the match, Sabalenka scored 71 points vs Bouzas Maneiro’s 51. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka fired 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 52% of her first serves in, winning 73% (27/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (17/34) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Bouzas Maneiro 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 53% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a marvellous win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of her matches (424-177). 26-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed 253-96 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).
Aryna has a compiled 50-9 win-loss record in 2025, 26-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Elena Rybakina
40 - 15win/loss
5
3
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59-19 | 37-13 | 9-3 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, the Kazakhstani got to the quarter after defeating Renata Zarazua 4-6 6-0 7-5, Elise Mertens 4-6 6-3 7-5 and Madison Keys 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2.
In the 4th round against Keys, Elena recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-73 6-4 6-2). During the match Rybakina scored 106 points vs Keys’s 89. The Kazakhstani was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Rybakina bagged 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Elena Rybakina was extremely effective on serve to win 71% (35/49) of her 1st serve and 60% (27/45) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve 3 times. Rybakina broke Keys 6 times after converting 43% of her break points (6/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Kazakhstani has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Strasbourg where she overcame Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-7(2) 6-1.
The Kazakhstani has an overall 40-15 win-loss record in 2025, 24-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 74 | 90 |
| Pts | 265-237 | 319-270 |
| Total Points | 502 | 589 |
| Winners | 110 | 123 |
| %Winners | 42% | 39% |
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Elena Rybakina dropped 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Rybakina (7 vs 9). Therefore, Sabalenka played 16 games less than Rybakina. The Belarussian scored 110 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani fired 123 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 16 | 31 |
| Avg per match | 5.3 | 10.3 |
| 1st in | 152/267 | 155/296 |
| %1st in | 57% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 110/152 | 123/155 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 60/115 | 73/141 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 52% |
Sabalenka fired 16 aces (5.3 per match). Rybakina managed to score 31 aces (10.3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 79% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 13 |
| Converted | 10/18 | 13/38 |
| % Converted | 56% | 34% |
| Conceded | 25 | 23 |
| Saved | 20 | 17 |
| % Saved | 80% | 74% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 6 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 10 times with a 56% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 5 times and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded. The Kazakhstani broke her opponents 13 times with a 34% conversion rate. Elena conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Vondrousova |
R3 Raducanu |
R4 Bouzas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 | 7-63 4-6 7-65 | 6-1 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 36 | 19 | 74 | |
| pts | 72-61 | 122-125 | 71-51 | 265-237 | |
| Total points | 133 | 247 | 122 | 502 | |
| Winners | 32 | 51 | 27 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 42% | 38% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 50/83 | 65/113 | 37/71 | 152/267 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 58% | 52% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 32/50 | 51/65 | 27/37 | 110/152 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 78% | 73% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/33 | 23/48 | 17/34 | 60/115 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 48% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 2/8 | 5/7 | 10/18 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 25% | 71% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 7 | 6 | 25 | |
| Saved | 12/12 | 4/7 | 4/6 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 57% | 67% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Rybakina | |||||
| R2 Zarazua |
R3 Mertens |
R4 Keys |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-0 7-5 | 4-6 6-3 7-5 | 6-73 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 31 | 31 | 90 | |
| pts | 114-95 | 99-86 | 106-89 | 319-270 | |
| Total points | 209 | 185 | 195 | 589 | |
| Winners | 40 | 48 | 35 | 123 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 48% | 33% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 14 | 11 | 6 | 31 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 10 | 2 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 50/103 | 56/99 | 49/94 | 155/296 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 57% | 52% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 40/50 | 48/56 | 35/49 | 123/155 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 86% | 71% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/53 | 19/43 | 27/45 | 73/141 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 44% | 60% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/16 | 3/8 | 6/14 | 13/38 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 38% | 43% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 6 | 9 | 23 | |
| Saved | 7/8 | 4/6 | 6/9 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 88% | 67% | 67% | 74% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin RoutliffeDabrowski/Erin Routliffe – Caty Mcnally/Linda NoskovaMcnally/Linda Noskova (6-2 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elias YmerYmer – Kimmer CoppejansCoppejans (7-65 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Sumit NagalNagal – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (7-5 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Federico GaioGaio – Manuel GuinardGuinard (6-1 2-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Mohamed SafwatSafwat (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Magda LinetteLinette (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (7-4) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction
