Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev will play each other in the quarter of the Cincinnati Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 3:00 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.22
Andrey Rublev -> 4.3
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev
This will be the 5th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Alcaraz won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4 in the 4th round in at the Wimbledon back in July 2025.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev – Wimbledon 06-July-2025
Carlos Alcaraz
51 - 6win/loss
1
1
LWWWWLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz reached the quarter after beating Damir Dzumhur 6-1 2-6 6-3, Hamad Medjedovic 6-4 6-4 and Luca Nardi 6-1 6-4.
In the 4th round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-1 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 65 points vs Nardi’s 47. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz bagged 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was quite efficient on serve to win 83% (25/30) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Nardi 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has lost 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (338-82). 13-4 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a compiled110-29 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 51-6 win-loss record in 2025, 13-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Andrey Rublev
29 - 18win/loss
16
5
LWWLLLLLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34-25 | 16-13 | 8-6 | 6-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Rublev reached the quarter after defeating Learner Tien 7-6(4) 6-3, Alexei Popyrin 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5 and Francisco Comesana 6-2 6-3.
In the 4th round, Andrey had a good straight sets win against Comesana (6-2 6-3). During the match Rublev scored 59 points vs Comesana’s 40. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Rublev struck 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Andrey Rublev lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 68% of his first serves in, winning 81% (26/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (6/15) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Comesana 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rublev has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Doha where he beat Jack Draper in the final 7-5 5-7 6-1.
The Russian has an overall 29-18 win-loss record in 2025, 13-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Cincinnati
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 77 |
| Pts | 222-182 | 270-221 |
| Total Points | 404 | 491 |
| Winners | 81 | 114 |
| %Winners | 36% | 42% |
Both Alcaraz and Rublev played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Andrey Rublev dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Rublev have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Alcaraz played 16 games less than Rublev. The Spaniard scored 81 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Rublev made 114 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 38 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 12.7 |
| 1st in | 107/176 | 141/238 |
| %1st in | 61% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 81/107 | 114/141 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 39/69 | 54/97 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 56% |
Alcaraz recorded 21 aces (7 per match). Rublev struck 38 aces (12.7 per match). Alcaraz won 76% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Rublev won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 9 |
| Converted | 12/28 | 9/22 |
| % Converted | 43% | 41% |
| Conceded | 7 | 12 |
| Saved | 2 | 9 |
| % Saved | 29% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 3 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 12 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 29% of the break points that he conceded. Andrey broke his opponents 9 times with a 41% conversion rate. Rublev conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||
| R2 Dzumhur |
R3 Medjedovic |
R4 Nardi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 2-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 20 | 17 | 61 | |
| pts | 83-73 | 74-62 | 65-47 | 222-182 | |
| Total points | 156 | 136 | 112 | 404 | |
| Winners | 30 | 26 | 25 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 35% | 38% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 12 | 2 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 44/73 | 33/57 | 30/46 | 107/176 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 58% | 65% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 30/44 | 26/33 | 25/30 | 81/107 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 79% | 83% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/29 | 15/24 | 9/16 | 39/69 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 63% | 56% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 3/7 | 4/11 | 12/28 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 43% | 36% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Saved | 0/3 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Rublev | |||||
| R2 Tien |
R3 Popyrin |
R4 Comesana |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-3 | 6-75 7-65 7-5 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 38 | 17 | 77 | |
| pts | 79-62 | 132-119 | 59-40 | 270-221 | |
| Total points | 141 | 251 | 99 | 491 | |
| Winners | 34 | 54 | 26 | 114 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 41% | 44% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 12 | 18 | 8 | 38 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 9 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 40/67 | 69/124 | 32/47 | 141/238 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 56% | 68% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 34/40 | 54/69 | 26/32 | 114/141 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 78% | 81% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/27 | 33/55 | 6/15 | 54/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 60% | 40% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 2/8 | 5/8 | 9/22 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 25% | 63% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 6 | 2 | 12 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 5/6 | 1/2 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 83% | 50% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWWLLLLLWW Tennis Scores in Cincinnati
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrey RublevRublev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Terence AtmaneAtmane – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
