Madison Keys and Karolina Muchova will square off in the 4th round of the Omnium Banque Nationale for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 12:30 pm on ROGERS. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.62
Karolina Muchova -> 2.3
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Karolina Muchova
This will be the 2nd time that Madison Keys and Karolina Muchova play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Keys won 6-4 7-6(5) in the 1st round in Beijing back in 2019.
Madison Keys
34 - 10win/loss
7
5
LLLLWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37-15 | 24-6 | 9-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Madison reached the 4th round after defeating Laura Siegemund 6-2 6-1 and Caty McNally 2-6 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round against McNally, Madison recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 99 points vs McNally’s 93. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about the service games, Keys scored 3 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 68% of her first serves in, winning 67% (42/63) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (13/29) on the 2nd serve. The American broke McNally 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys has conceded 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (261-133). 21-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Keys has a compiled 154-76 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.
The American has a compiled 34-10 win-loss record in 2025, 21-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Toronto
Karolina Muchova
15 - 10win/loss
19
8
LWWLWLWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-17 | 23-13 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 21-7 | 15-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-13 | 28-9 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-9 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Muchova reached the 4th round after defeating Antonia Ruzic 7-5 7-5 and Belinda Bencic 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3.
In the 3rd round against Bencic, The Czech recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 6-2 6-3). During the match Muchova scored 111 points vs Bencic’s 104. Karolina was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Muchova fired 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova lost the serve once and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 59% of her first serves in, winning 68% (45/66) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (24/45) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Bencic 5 times after converting 33% of her break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Czech has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Muchova’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.
Muchova has an overall 15-10 win-loss record in 2025, 12-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Toronto
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 41 | 54 |
| Pts | 151-123 | 192-177 |
| Total Points | 274 | 369 |
| Winners | 67 | 80 |
| %Winners | 44% | 42% |
Both Keys and Muchova played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys dropped 1 set, while Karolina Muchova dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Keys and Muchova have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Keys played 13 games less than Muchova. The American scored 67 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech managed to score 80 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 5 |
| 1st in | 99/139 | 119/194 |
| %1st in | 71% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 67/99 | 80/119 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 18/40 | 40/75 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 53% |
Keys scored 6 aces (3 per match). Muchova struck 10 aces (5 per match). Keys won 68% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 67% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 9 |
| Converted | 9/18 | 9/21 |
| % Converted | 50% | 43% |
| Conceded | 11 | 18 |
| Saved | 7 | 15 |
| % Saved | 64% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 |
Keys broke her opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Keys surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. Muchova conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | ||||
| R2 Siegemund |
R3 McNally |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 2-6 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 26 | 41 | |
| pts | 52-30 | 99-93 | 151-123 | |
| Total points | 82 | 192 | 274 | |
| Winners | 25 | 42 | 67 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 42% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 36/47 | 63/92 | 99/139 | |
| % 1st in | 77% | 68% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 25/36 | 42/63 | 67/99 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 67% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/11 | 13/29 | 18/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 4/13 | 9/18 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 31% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 4/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 57% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Muchova | ||||
| R2 Ruzic |
R3 Bencic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-5 | 6-72 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 30 | 54 | |
| pts | 81-73 | 111-104 | 192-177 | |
| Total points | 154 | 215 | 369 | |
| Winners | 35 | 45 | 80 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 41% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 53/83 | 66/111 | 119/194 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 59% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 35/53 | 45/66 | 80/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 68% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 24/45 | 40/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 5/15 | 9/21 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 33% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 11 | 18 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 10/11 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 91% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWWLWWW
LWWLWLWLWW Tennis Scores in Montreal
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Mccartney KesslerKessler (5-7 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elena RybakinaElena – Dayana YastremskaDayana (5-7 6-2 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Cori GauffGauff – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lin ZhuZhu – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Clara TausonTauson – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-3) – H2H and prediction
