Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas will play each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Stefanos Tsitsipas who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Stefanos Tsitsipas is the pick to win this match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas -> 1.9
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.9
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
This will be the 7th time that Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas face off. The head to head is 5-1 for Tsitsipas (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Musetti won 1-6 6-3 6-4 in the quarter in Monte carlo back in April 2025.
Highlights Lorenzo Musetti vs Stefanos Tsitsipas – Monte carlo 11-April-2025
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45-22 | 18-11 | 19-4 | 8-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11 (career-high), Musetti reached the 3rd round after beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(3) 6-2.
In the 2nd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Etcheverry (7-63 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 70 points vs Etcheverry’s 57. Lorenzo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Regarding the service games, Musetti scored just 1 ace in the encounter and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Lorenzo Musetti was quite effective on serve to win 71% (29/41) of his 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Italian broke Etcheverry 3 times after converting 23% of his break points (3/13).
Musetti has a winning win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 58% of his matches (233-166). 7-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has a compiled126-67 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Lorenzo’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Carlo.
Lorenzo has a composed 13-5 win-loss record in 2025, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Stefanos Tsitsipas
16 - 8win/loss
34
3
LWLWLLWLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-18 | 12-10 | 7-5 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-22 | 13-11 | 22-6 | 8-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-24 | 19-9 | 17-5 | 11-6 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 61-24 | 18-8 | 17-4 | 18-9 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-19 | 26-8 | 23-5 | 6-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 18, Stefanos reached the 3rd round after defeating Jan-Lennard Struff 3-6 6-4 6-3.
In the 2nd round against Struff, Tsitsipas recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-3). During the match Tsitsipas scored 94 points vs Struff’s 91. Stefanos was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Tsitsipas managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Stefanos Tsitsipas lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Tsitsipas put 63% of his first serves in, winning 75% (45/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (14/36) on the 2nd serve. Stefanos broke Struff 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
His best result of the season was winning the title in Dubai where he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 6-3 6-3.
The Greek has a compiled 16-8 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2019. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 21 | 28 |
| Pts | 70-57 | 94-91 |
| Total Points | 127 | 185 |
| Winners | 29 | 45 |
| %Winners | 41% | 48% |
Both Musetti and Tsitsipas played 1 match. At the moment, Stefanos Tsitsipas surrendered 1 set while Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t dropped a set so far. Musetti has played 1 set(s) less than Tsitsipas (2 vs 3). Therefore, Musetti played 7 games less than Tsitsipas. Musetti scored 29 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Stefanos fired 45 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 6 |
| 1st in | 41/58 | 60/96 |
| %1st in | 71% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 29/41 | 45/60 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 12/17 | 14/36 |
| %2nd pts | 71% | 39% |
Musetti struck 1 ace . Tsitsipas also fired 6 aces . Musetti won 71% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 71% of the points. On the other side, Tsitsipas won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 39% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 4 |
| Converted | 3/13 | 4/8 |
| % Converted | 23% | 50% |
| Conceded | 1 | 7 |
| Saved | 0 | 4 |
| % Saved | 0% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 |
The Italian broke his opponent 3 times with a 23% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. Tsitsipas broke his opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Greek conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | |||
| R2 Etcheverry |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 70-57 | 70-57 | |
| Total points | 127 | 127 | |
| Winners | 29 | 29 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 41/58 | 41/58 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 29/41 | 29/41 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/17 | 12/17 | |
| % 2nd pts | 71% | 71% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/13 | 3/13 | |
| Converted % | 23% | 23% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Tsitsipas | |||
| R2 Struff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 28 | |
| pts | 94-91 | 94-91 | |
| Total points | 185 | 185 | |
| Winners | 45 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 60/96 | 60/96 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 45/60 | 45/60 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/36 | 14/36 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 39% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWLLW
LWLWLLWLLL Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-63 7-60) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction
