Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic will play each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 3:00 pm on STADIUM 2. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Belinda Bencic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Belinda Bencic is the pick to win this match.
Belinda Bencic -> 1.9
Madison Keys -> 1.9
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Belinda Bencic
This will be the 5th time that Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic face off. The head to head is 2-2 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Bencic won 6-4 6-4 in the 3rd round in Charleston back in 2022.
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-1 | 17-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5 (career-high), Keys got to the quarter after beating Unknown Player bye, Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-0, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-7(8) 6-4 and Donna Vekic 4-6 7-6(7) 6-3.
In the 4th round against Vekic, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-67 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 104 points vs Vekic’s 97. The American was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Regarding the service games, Keys fired 7 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 66% of her first serves in, winning 68% (41/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Vekic 4 times after converting 33% of her break points (4/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (244-124). 17-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Keys has a composed 150-74 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.
The American has a compiled 17-1 win-loss record in 2025, 17-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Belinda Bencic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-4 | 17-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 31-13 | 24-10 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-18 | 13-9 | 13-4 | 10-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 22-9 | 5-5 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 58, the Swiss got to the quarter after beating Tatjana Maria 6-1 6-1, Amanda Anisimova 6-4 6-7(3) 6-1, Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-4 and Cori Gauff 3-6 6-3 6-4.
In the 4th round against Gauff, Belinda recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Bencic and Gauff scored the same amount of points (88). However, the world no. 5 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Bencic was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Bencic wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Belinda Bencic lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Bencic put 73% of her first serves in, winning 69% (45/65) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Belinda broke Gauff 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Bencic has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Abu Dhabi where she overcame Ashlyn Krueger in the final 4-6 6-1 6-1.
Belinda has a composed 17-4 win-loss record in 2025, 17-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 78 | 92 |
| Pts | 295-255 | 318-257 |
| Total Points | 550 | 575 |
| Winners | 115 | 127 |
| %Winners | 39% | 40% |
Keys played 3 matches while Bencic competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys conceded 2 sets, while Belinda Bencic surrendered 2 sets. Keys has played 2 set(s) less than Bencic (8 vs 10). Therefore, Keys played 14 games less than Bencic. Madison scored 115 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Belinda struck 127 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 158/263 | 184/286 |
| %1st in | 60% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 115/158 | 127/184 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 49/105 | 51/102 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 50% |
Keys blasted 12 aces (4 per match). Bencic blasted 5 aces (1.3 per match). Keys won 73% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Bencic won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 21 |
| Converted | 16/37 | 21/37 |
| % Converted | 43% | 57% |
| Conceded | 26 | 19 |
| Saved | 19 | 9 |
| % Saved | 73% | 47% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 10 |
Madison broke her opponents 16 times with a 43% conversion rate. Keys lost her serve 7 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded. Belinda broke her opponents 21 times with a 57% conversion rate. Bencic conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 47% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | |||||
| R2 Potapova |
R3 Mertens |
R4 Vekic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-2 6-78 6-4 | 4-6 7-67 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 31 | 32 | 78 | |
| pts | 63-35 | 128-123 | 104-97 | 295-255 | |
| Total points | 98 | 251 | 201 | 550 | |
| Winners | 17 | 57 | 41 | 115 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 45% | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 12 | 4 | 20 | |
| 1st in | 22/44 | 76/128 | 60/91 | 158/263 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 59% | 66% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 17/22 | 57/76 | 41/60 | 115/158 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 75% | 68% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/22 | 17/52 | 18/31 | 49/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 33% | 58% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 6/16 | 4/12 | 16/37 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 38% | 33% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 15 | 5 | 26 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 12/15 | 2/5 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 80% | 40% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| Bencic | ||||||
| R1 Maria |
R2 Anisimova |
R3 Shnaider |
R4 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 | 6-4 6-73 6-1 | 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 30 | 20 | 28 | 92 | |
| pts | 55-25 | 103-88 | 72-56 | 88-88 | 318-257 | |
| Total points | 80 | 191 | 128 | 176 | 575 | |
| Winners | 20 | 35 | 27 | 45 | 127 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 34% | 38% | 51% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 24/39 | 57/96 | 38/62 | 65/89 | 184/286 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 59% | 61% | 73% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 20/24 | 35/57 | 27/38 | 45/65 | 127/184 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 61% | 71% | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 22/39 | 8/24 | 12/24 | 51/102 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 56% | 33% | 50% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 7/13 | 6/11 | 3/5 | 21/37 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 54% | 55% | 60% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 19 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/10 | 3/7 | 0/2 | 9 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 43% | 0% | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
WWWWLWWWWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Timea Babos/Nicole MelicharBabos/Nicole Melichar (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Tereza Mihalikova/Olivia NichollsMihalikova/Olivia Nicholls – Anna Kalinskaya/Caty McNallyKalinskaya/Caty McNally (6-4 7-61) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Su-Wei Hsieh/Shuai ZhangHsieh/Shuai Zhang – Jelena Ostapenko/Ellen PerezOstapenko/Ellen Perez (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Giovanni FonioFonio – Bogdan Ionut ApostolIonut Apostol (6-2 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Thomas FancuttFancutt – Maxime ChazalChazal (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Matheus Pucinelle De AlmeidaPucinelle De Almeida – Alexander IgoshinIgoshin (6-4 2-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Albert Alcaraz IvorraAlcaraz Ivorra – Alexandar LazarovLazarov (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Madison KeysKeys (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-6) – H2H and prediction
