Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov will clash against each other in the 3^rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.176
Denis Shapovalov -> 4.95

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov

This will be the 2^nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 6-1 6-4 6-2 in the 3^rd round in at the French Open back in 2023.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov – French Open 02-June-2023

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 3, Carlos got to the 3^rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Halys (6-4 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 54 points vs Halys’s 43. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz blasted 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was very effective on serve to win 95% (20/21) of his 1st serve and 63% (17/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carlos broke Halys 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (299-80). 7-2 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a compiled104-29 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2.

Alcaraz has a composed 12-2 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Denis Shapovalov

Ranked no. 28, Shapovalov got to the 3^rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Adam Walton 6-3 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Shapovalov had a good straight sets win against Walton (6-3 6-2). During the match Shapovalov scored 66 points vs Walton’s 50. The Canadian was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about serving, Shapovalov bagged 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Denis Shapovalov lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 61% of his first serves in, winning 69% (29/42) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (11/27) on the 2nd serve. Shapovalov broke Walton 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3.

The Canadian has a composed 11-4 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2019. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Shapovalov
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	17
Pts	54-43	66-50
Total Points	97	116
Winners	20	29
%Winners	37%	44%

Both Alcaraz and Shapovalov played 1 match. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Shapovalov have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Alcaraz played 1 game more than Shapovalov. Alcaraz scored 20 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Canadian fired 29 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Shapovalov
Aces	7	2
Avg per match	7	2
1st in	21/48	42/69
%1st in	44%	61%
1st pts	20/21	29/42
%1st pts	95%	69%
2nd pts	17/27	11/27
%2nd pts	63%	41%

Alcaraz made 7 aces . Shapovalov blasted 2 aces . Alcaraz won 95% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 69% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 41% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Shapovalov
Won	3	5
Converted	3/5	5/6
% Converted	60%	83%
Conceded	1	10
Saved	1	8
% Saved	100%	80%
Times Broken	0	2

Carlos broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. Carlos was rock solid on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 1 break points. Denis broke his opponent 5 times with a 83% conversion rate. The Canadian conceded his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R2 Halys	Total
Score	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	18
pts	54-43	54-43
Total points	97	97
Winners	20	20
%Winners	37%	37%
SERVE
Aces	7	7
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	21/48	21/48
% 1st in	44%	44%
1st pts	20/21	20/21
% 1st pts	95%	95%
2nd pts	17/27	17/27
% 2nd pts	63%	63%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/5	3/5
Converted %	60%	60%
Conceded	1	1
Saved	1/1	1
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Shapovalov
	R2 Walton	Total
Score	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
pts	66-50	66-50
Total points	116	116
Winners	29	29
%Winners	44%	44%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	42/69	42/69
% 1st in	61%	61%
1st pts	29/42	29/42
% 1st pts	69%	69%
2nd pts	11/27	11/27
% 2nd pts	41%	41%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/6	5/6
Converted %	83%	83%
Conceded	10	10
Saved	8/10	8
Saved %	80%	80%
Times Broken	2	2

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Tommy PaulPaul – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marcos GironGiron – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (5-7 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard (7-6³ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (2-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Holger RuneHolger – Ugo HumbertUgo (5-7 6-4 7-5) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gael MonfilsMonfils (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (3-0) – H2H and prediction