Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will clash against each other in the final of the Australian Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.27
Madison Keys -> 3.92
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 6th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-3 in the 4th round in Beijing back in 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys – Beijing 02-October-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the final after defeating Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5, Clara Tauson 7-6(5) 6-4, Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3 and Paula Badosa 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Badosa (6-4 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 68 points vs Badosa’s 53. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka made 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Aryna Sabalenka was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (24/31) of her 1st serve and 61% (11/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Sabalenka broke Badosa 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a terrific match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (385-168). 11-0 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate 238-92 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.
The Belarussian has a composed 11-0 win-loss record in 2025, 11-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37-15 | 24-6 | 9-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Madison reached the final after beating Ann Li 6-4 7-5, Elena Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1) 2-6 7-5, Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-4, Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3, Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4 and Iga Swiatek 5-7 6-1 7-6(8).
In the semifinal against Swiatek, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-1 7-68). During the match Keys scored 111 points vs Swiatek’s 100. Madison was exceptionally aggressive to blast 47 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys scored 7 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 6 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 69% of her first serves in, winning 64% (47/73) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (11/33) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Swiatek 8 times after converting 50% of her break points (8/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1.
The American has an aggregate 13-1 win-loss record in 2025, 13-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2015 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 13 | 16 |
| Tot Games | 119 | 160 |
| Pts | 442-355 | 529-492 |
| Total Points | 797 | 1021 |
| Winners | 172 | 237 |
| %Winners | 39% | 45% |
Both Sabalenka and Keys played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Madison Keys lost 4 sets. Sabalenka has played 3 set(s) less than Keys (13 vs 16). Therefore, Sabalenka played 41 games less than Keys. Aryna scored 172 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Keys struck 237 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 28 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4.7 |
| 1st in | 257/376 | 351/507 |
| %1st in | 68% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 172/257 | 237/351 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 62/119 | 74/156 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 47% |
Sabalenka fired 12 aces (2 per match). Keys struck 28 aces (4.7 per match). Sabalenka won 67% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 68% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 30 | 25 |
| Converted | 30/60 | 25/51 |
| % Converted | 50% | 49% |
| Conceded | 34 | 44 |
| Saved | 18 | 26 |
| % Saved | 53% | 59% |
| Times Broken | 16 | 18 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 30 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Belarussian surrendered her serve 16 times and she saved 53% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 25 times with a 49% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 18 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||||
| R1 Stephens |
R2 Bouzas |
R3 Tauson |
R4 Andreeva |
1/4 Pavlyuchenkova |
1/2 Badosa |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-65 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 2-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 21 | 23 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 119 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 77-64 | 95-86 | 58-33 | 81-73 | 68-53 | 442-355 | |
| Total points | 109 | 141 | 181 | 91 | 154 | 121 | 797 | |
| Winners | 22 | 33 | 31 | 28 | 34 | 24 | 172 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% | 33% | 48% | 42% | 35% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 32/46 | 54/80 | 52/72 | 36/54 | 52/75 | 31/49 | 257/376 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 68% | 72% | 67% | 69% | 63% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 33/54 | 31/52 | 28/36 | 34/52 | 24/31 | 172/257 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 61% | 60% | 78% | 65% | 77% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 15/26 | 8/20 | 10/18 | 10/23 | 11/18 | 62/119 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 58% | 40% | 56% | 43% | 61% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 30 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 5/6 | 6/17 | 4/7 | 6/8 | 4/9 | 30/60 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 83% | 35% | 57% | 75% | 44% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 34 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 8/11 | 4/9 | 3/3 | 3/8 | 0/1 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 73% | 44% | 100% | 38% | 0% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 16 | |
| Keys | ||||||||
| R1 Li |
R2 Gabriela Ruse |
R3 Collins |
R4 Rybakina |
1/4 Svitolina |
1/2 Swiatek |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | 7-61 2-6 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 1-6 6-3 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | 5-7 6-1 7-68 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 33 | 20 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 160 | |
| pts | 65-58 | 111-103 | 64-56 | 88-86 | 90-89 | 111-100 | 529-492 | |
| Total points | 123 | 214 | 120 | 174 | 179 | 211 | 1021 | |
| Winners | 32 | 44 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 47 | 237 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 40% | 56% | 43% | 44% | 42% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 28 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 23 | |
| 1st in | 44/62 | 68/98 | 52/65 | 62/89 | 52/87 | 73/106 | 351/507 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 69% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 69% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | 44/68 | 36/52 | 38/62 | 40/52 | 47/73 | 237/351 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 65% | 69% | 61% | 77% | 64% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 15/30 | 7/13 | 13/27 | 18/35 | 11/33 | 74/156 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 50% | 54% | 48% | 51% | 33% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/8 | 3/6 | 5/9 | 2/9 | 8/16 | 25/51 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 50% | 56% | 22% | 50% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 44 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 9/13 | 1/2 | 10/16 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 29% | 50% | 69% | 50% | 63% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 18 | |
Head 2 Head
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