Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will face off in the 4th round of the China Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 12:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.22
Madison Keys -> 4.3
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) in the semifinal in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys – U.S. Open 07-September-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
48 - 11win/loss
1
1
LLWWWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Aryna got to the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-4 6-1 and Ashlyn Krueger 6-2 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Krueger (6-2 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Krueger’s 47. The Belarussian was quite aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 64% of her first serves in, winning 72% (28/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Krueger 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 59% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (366-165). 32-6 on hard in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a compiled221-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5 and at the U.S. Open where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 7-5.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 48-11 win-loss record in 2024, 32-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Madison Keys
24 - 10win/loss
21
7
LLWWLWWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 24, Madison reached the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-2 6-1 and Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (6-3 6-3). During the match Keys scored 64 points vs Haddad Maia’s 50. Keys was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.
About the serving games, Keys managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 71% of her first serves in, winning 60% (21/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (7/14) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Haddad Maia 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Strasbourg where she beat Danielle Rose Collins in the final 6-1 6-2.
Keys has an aggregate 24-10 win-loss record in 2024, 7-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2016. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 33 |
| Pts | 134-95 | 132-92 |
| Total Points | 229 | 224 |
| Winners | 58 | 52 |
| %Winners | 43% | 39% |
Both Sabalenka and Keys played 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Keys have played the same amount of sets 4. They also played the same amount of games (33). Sabalenka scored 58 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Madison recorded 52 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 3 |
| 1st in | 79/125 | 73/98 |
| %1st in | 63% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 58/79 | 52/73 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 21/46 | 9/25 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 36% |
Sabalenka managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Keys managed to score 6 aces (3 per match). Sabalenka won 73% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 71% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 36% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 11 |
| Converted | 9/14 | 11/25 |
| % Converted | 64% | 44% |
| Conceded | 6 | 9 |
| Saved | 4 | 6 |
| % Saved | 67% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 9 times with a 64% conversion rate. Sabalenka lost her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R2 Sawangkaew |
R3 Krueger |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-1 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 16 | 33 | |
| pts | 68-48 | 66-47 | 134-95 | |
| Total points | 116 | 113 | 229 | |
| Winners | 30 | 28 | 58 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 42% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 40/64 | 39/61 | 79/125 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 64% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 30/40 | 28/39 | 58/79 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 72% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/24 | 10/22 | 21/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 45% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/7 | 9/14 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 71% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/2 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Keys | ||||
| R2 Sorribes Tormo |
R3 Haddad Maia |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 33 | |
| pts | 68-42 | 64-50 | 132-92 | |
| Total points | 110 | 114 | 224 | |
| Winners | 31 | 21 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 33% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 38/49 | 35/49 | 73/98 | |
| % 1st in | 78% | 71% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 31/38 | 21/35 | 52/73 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 60% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 2/11 | 7/14 | 9/25 | |
| % 2nd pts | 18% | 50% | 36% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 6/12 | 11/25 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 2/5 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 40% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LLWWLWWLLW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Shuai ZhangZhang – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (7-5 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Madison KeysKeys (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cristina BucsaBucsa – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Magda LinetteLinette – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Shuai ZhangZhang – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (0-0) – H2H and prediction
