Mattia Bellucci and Aslan Karatsev will face off in the qualifications of the Shanghai Rolex Masters for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 5:00 pm on COURT 4. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Mattia Bellucci who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Mattia Bellucci is the pick to win this match.
Mattia Bellucci -> 1.46
Aslan Karatsev -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Mattia Bellucci vs. Aslan Karatsev
This will be the 2nd time that Mattia Bellucci and Aslan Karatsev square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Bellucci (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Bellucci won 6-4 6-0 in the 1st round in Hangzhou back in September 2024.
Mattia Bellucci
41 - 27win/loss
103
101
WLWWLWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41-27 | 25-14 | 5-2 | 5-7 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-34 | 22-19 | 2-9 | 4-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 66-23 | 30-4 | 25-12 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-18 | 29-10 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-6 | 13-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Ranked no. 103, Mattia got to the qualifications after beating Yuta Shimizu 7-5 7-6(2).
In the qualifications, Mattia had a good straight sets win against Shimizu (7-5 7-62). During the match, Bellucci scored 86 points vs Shimizu’s 76. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Regarding the service games, Bellucci struck 10 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Mattia Bellucci was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 75% (36/48) of his 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Bellucci broke Shimizu twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Bellucci has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 64% of his matches (225-128). 25-14 on hard in 2024. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Bellucci has an aggregate127-58 win-loss record in the last 7 years on hard.
The Italian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in the Cary Challenger.
The Italian has a composed 41-27 win-loss record in 2024, 25-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Shanghai
Bellucci has never competed in this tournament before.
Aslan Karatsev
7 - 14win/loss
139
14
WLWLLWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7-14 | 6-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-22 | 13-10 | 14-5 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 18-31 | 8-9 | 5-9 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-20 | 23-9 | 9-6 | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 36-11 | 7-4 | 17-2 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 139, the Russian got to the qualifications after beating Aziz Dougaz 6-7(2) 6-4 6-4.
In the qualifications against Dougaz, Karatsev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 6-4 6-4). During the match Karatsev scored 107 points vs Dougaz’s 98. Aslan was exceptionally aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Karatsev fired 10 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Aslan Karatsev was very effective on serve to win 74% (45/61) of his 1st serve and 63% (24/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Aslan broke Dougaz 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).
Karatsev has an overall 7-14 win-loss record in 2024, 6-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Shanghai
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bellucci | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 25 | 33 |
| Pts | 86-76 | 107-98 |
| Total Points | 162 | 205 |
| Winners | 36 | 45 |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% |
Both Bellucci and Karatsev played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Aslan Karatsev surrendered 1 set while Mattia Bellucci hasn’t dropped a set so far. Bellucci has played 1 set(s) less than Karatsev (2 vs 3). Therefore, Bellucci played 8 games less than Karatsev. The Italian scored 36 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian managed to score 45 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bellucci | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 10 | 10 |
| 1st in | 48/78 | 61/99 |
| %1st in | 62% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 36/48 | 45/61 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 24/38 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 63% |
Bellucci scored 10 aces . Karatsev struck 10 aces . Bellucci won 75% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Karatsev won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bellucci | Karatsev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 3 |
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/11 |
| % Converted | 40% | 27% |
| Conceded | 1 | 5 |
| Saved | 0 | 4 |
| % Saved | 0% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Bellucci broke his opponent twice with a 40% conversion rate. The Italian dropped his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. Aslan broke his opponent 3 times with a 27% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bellucci | |||
| Q1 Shimizu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 25 | |
| pts | 86-76 | 86-76 | |
| Total points | 162 | 162 | |
| Winners | 36 | 36 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 48/78 | 48/78 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 36/48 | 36/48 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 17/30 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 2/5 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Karatsev | |||
| Q1 Dougaz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-72 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 33 | |
| pts | 107-98 | 107-98 | |
| Total points | 205 | 205 | |
| Winners | 45 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 10 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 61/99 | 61/99 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 45/61 | 45/61 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/38 | 24/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/11 | 3/11 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 27% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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