Christopher O Connell and Sho Shimabukuro will clash against each other in the final of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 12:30 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Christopher O Connell who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Christopher O Connell is the pick to win this match.
Christopher O Connell -> 1.4
Sho Shimabukuro -> 2.8

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Prediction and head to head Christopher O Connell vs. Sho Shimabukuro

This will be the 2^nd time that Christopher O Connell and Sho Shimabukuro clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for O Connell (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, O Connell won 6-3 6-3 in the semifinal in the Yokohama Challenger back in 2022.

Christopher O Connell

Ranked no. 87, Christopher got to the final after defeating Tristan Lamasine 6-3 6-2, Ye Cong Mo 6-2 2-1 ret., Radu Albot 6-4 6-7(6) 6-3 and Mikhail Kukushkin 6-4 6-2.

In the semifinal, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Kukushkin (6-4 6-2). During the match, O Connell scored 61 points vs Kukushkin’s 50. Christopher was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Talking about the service games, O Connell bagged 13 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Christopher O Connell was extremely effective on serve to win 85% (28/33) of his 1st serve and 52% (14/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. O Connell broke Kukushkin 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Australian has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

O Connell has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (343-207). 18-13 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, O Connell has a compiled 154-104 record in the last years on hard.

The Australian’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the Guangzhou Challenger.

The Australian has a compiled 20-18 win-loss record in 2024, 18-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger

Sho Shimabukuro

Ranked no. 196, the Japanese got to the final after defeating Maxime Cressy 7-6(10) 6-3, Yan Bai 3-6 7-6(3) 0-1 ret., Terence Atmane 7-6(10) 5-7 7-5 and Luca Nardi 6-2 6-4.

In the semifinal, Shimabukuro had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-2 6-4). During the match Shimabukuro scored 58 points vs Nardi’s 41. Sho was pretty aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about serving, Shimabukuro fired 3 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Sho Shimabukuro lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Shimabukuro put 57% of his first serves in, winning 69% (20/29) of the points behind his 1st serve and 77% (17/22) on the 2nd serve. Sho broke Nardi 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Shimabukuro has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Shanghai Challenger where he defeated Yu Hsiou Hsu in the final 6-4 6-4.

The Japanese has an aggregate 25-21 win-loss record in 2024, 18-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger

Sho has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	O Connell	Shimabukuro
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	11
Tot Games	78	100
Pts	278-213	321-316
Total Points	491	637
Winners	115	137
%Winners	41%	43%

Both O Connell and Shimabukuro played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Christopher O Connell surrendered 1 set, while Sho Shimabukuro dropped 3 sets. O Connell has played 1 set(s) less than Shimabukuro (10 vs 11). Therefore, O Connell played 22 games less than Shimabukuro. O Connell scored 115 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese blasted 137 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	O Connell	Shimabukuro
Aces	44	27
Avg per match	11	6.8
1st in	148/248	187/330
%1st in	60%	57%
1st pts	115/148	137/187
%1st pts	78%	73%
2nd pts	60/100	90/143
%2nd pts	60%	63%

O Connell recorded 44 aces (11 per match). Shimabukuro bagged 27 aces (6.8 per match). O Connell won 78% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Shimabukuro won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	O Connell	Shimabukuro
Won	14	8
Converted	14/33	8/16
% Converted	42%	50%
Conceded	14	17
Saved	10	12
% Saved	71%	71%
Times Broken	4	5

Christopher broke his opponents 14 times with a 42% conversion rate. Christopher dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Sho conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.

O Connell
	R1 Lamasine	R2 Cong Mo	1/4 Albot	1/2 Kukushkin	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	6-2 2-1 ret.	6-4 6-76 6-3	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	17	11	32	18	78
pts	61-42	45-28	111-93	61-50	278-213
Total points	103	73	204	111	491
Winners	27	16	44	28	115
%Winners	44%	36%	40%	46%	41%
SERVE
Aces	4	9	18	13	44
Double Faults	0	1	2	1	4
1st in	37/51	19/34	59/103	33/60	148/248
% 1st in	73%	56%	57%	55%	60%
1st pts	27/37	16/19	44/59	28/33	115/148
% 1st pts	73%	84%	75%	85%	78%
2nd pts	9/14	11/15	26/44	14/27	60/100
% 2nd pts	64%	73%	59%	52%	60%
Breaks
Won	4	2	5	3	14
Converted	4/11	2/6	5/11	3/5	14/33
Converted %	36%	33%	45%	60%	42%
Conceded	2	2	8	2	14
Saved	1/2	2/2	5/8	2/2	10
Saved %	50%	100%	63%	100%	78%
Times Broken	1	0	3	0	4

Shimabukuro
	R1 Cressy	R2 Bai	1/4 Atmane	1/2 Nardi	Total
Score	7-610 6-3	3-6 7-63 0-1 ret.	7-610 5-7 7-5	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	22	23	37	18	100
pts	68-65	77-88	118-122	58-41	321-316
Total points	133	165	240	99	637
Winners	35	26	56	20	137
%Winners	51%	34%	47%	34%	43%
SERVE
Aces	7	7	10	3	27
Double Faults	1	3	7	0	11
1st in	46/74	41/77	71/128	29/51	187/330
% 1st in	62%	53%	55%	57%	57%
1st pts	35/46	26/41	56/71	20/29	137/187
% 1st pts	76%	63%	79%	69%	73%
2nd pts	21/28	21/36	31/57	17/22	90/143
% 2nd pts	75%	58%	54%	77%	63%
Breaks
Won	1	1	2	4	8
Converted	1/2	1/5	2/3	4/6	8/16
Converted %	50%	20%	67%	67%	50%
Conceded	0	8	5	4	17
Saved	0/0	6/8	3/5	3/4	12
Saved %	–	75%	60%	75%	53%
Times Broken	0	2	2	1	5

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (1-0) – H2H and prediction