Christopher O Connell and Sho Shimabukuro will clash against each other in the final of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 12:30 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Christopher O Connell who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Christopher O Connell is the pick to win this match.
Christopher O Connell -> 1.4
Sho Shimabukuro -> 2.8
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Prediction and head to head Christopher O Connell vs. Sho Shimabukuro
This will be the 2nd time that Christopher O Connell and Sho Shimabukuro clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for O Connell (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, O Connell won 6-3 6-3 in the semifinal in the Yokohama Challenger back in 2022.
Christopher O Connell
21 - 18win/loss
65
53
LWWLLWLLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28-26 | 23-16 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-34 | 19-18 | 11-9 | 4-3 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-25 | 30-16 | 12-5 | 3-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 22-16 | 14-9 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 12-12 | 4-5 | 4-3 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 87, Christopher got to the final after defeating Tristan Lamasine 6-3 6-2, Ye Cong Mo 6-2 2-1 ret., Radu Albot 6-4 6-7(6) 6-3 and Mikhail Kukushkin 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Kukushkin (6-4 6-2). During the match, O Connell scored 61 points vs Kukushkin’s 50. Christopher was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, O Connell bagged 13 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Christopher O Connell was extremely effective on serve to win 85% (28/33) of his 1st serve and 52% (14/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. O Connell broke Kukushkin 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Australian has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
O Connell has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (343-207). 18-13 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, O Connell has a compiled 154-104 record in the last years on hard.
The Australian’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the Guangzhou Challenger.
The Australian has a compiled 20-18 win-loss record in 2024, 18-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Sho Shimabukuro
25 - 22win/loss
193
135
LLWWLWLWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29-27 | 20-16 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-26 | 19-17 | 7-1 | 9-4 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-25 | 38-20 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 31-20 | 28-18 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 196, the Japanese got to the final after defeating Maxime Cressy 7-6(10) 6-3, Yan Bai 3-6 7-6(3) 0-1 ret., Terence Atmane 7-6(10) 5-7 7-5 and Luca Nardi 6-2 6-4.
In the semifinal, Shimabukuro had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-2 6-4). During the match Shimabukuro scored 58 points vs Nardi’s 41. Sho was pretty aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Shimabukuro fired 3 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Sho Shimabukuro lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Shimabukuro put 57% of his first serves in, winning 69% (20/29) of the points behind his 1st serve and 77% (17/22) on the 2nd serve. Sho broke Nardi 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Shimabukuro has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Shanghai Challenger where he defeated Yu Hsiou Hsu in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Japanese has an aggregate 25-21 win-loss record in 2024, 18-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger
Sho has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | O Connell | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 78 | 100 |
| Pts | 278-213 | 321-316 |
| Total Points | 491 | 637 |
| Winners | 115 | 137 |
| %Winners | 41% | 43% |
Both O Connell and Shimabukuro played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Christopher O Connell surrendered 1 set, while Sho Shimabukuro dropped 3 sets. O Connell has played 1 set(s) less than Shimabukuro (10 vs 11). Therefore, O Connell played 22 games less than Shimabukuro. O Connell scored 115 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese blasted 137 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | O Connell | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 44 | 27 |
| Avg per match | 11 | 6.8 |
| 1st in | 148/248 | 187/330 |
| %1st in | 60% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 115/148 | 137/187 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 60/100 | 90/143 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 63% |
O Connell recorded 44 aces (11 per match). Shimabukuro bagged 27 aces (6.8 per match). O Connell won 78% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Shimabukuro won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | O Connell | Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 8 |
| Converted | 14/33 | 8/16 |
| % Converted | 42% | 50% |
| Conceded | 14 | 17 |
| Saved | 10 | 12 |
| % Saved | 71% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 |
Christopher broke his opponents 14 times with a 42% conversion rate. Christopher dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Sho conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| O Connell | ||||||
| R1 Lamasine |
R2 Cong Mo |
1/4 Albot |
1/2 Kukushkin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 2-1 ret. | 6-4 6-76 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 11 | 32 | 18 | 78 | |
| pts | 61-42 | 45-28 | 111-93 | 61-50 | 278-213 | |
| Total points | 103 | 73 | 204 | 111 | 491 | |
| Winners | 27 | 16 | 44 | 28 | 115 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 36% | 40% | 46% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 9 | 18 | 13 | 44 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 37/51 | 19/34 | 59/103 | 33/60 | 148/248 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 56% | 57% | 55% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 27/37 | 16/19 | 44/59 | 28/33 | 115/148 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 84% | 75% | 85% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/14 | 11/15 | 26/44 | 14/27 | 60/100 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 73% | 59% | 52% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/11 | 2/6 | 5/11 | 3/5 | 14/33 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 33% | 45% | 60% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 14 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 2/2 | 5/8 | 2/2 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 100% | 63% | 100% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shimabukuro | ||||||
| R1 Cressy |
R2 Bai |
1/4 Atmane |
1/2 Nardi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-610 6-3 | 3-6 7-63 0-1 ret. | 7-610 5-7 7-5 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 23 | 37 | 18 | 100 | |
| pts | 68-65 | 77-88 | 118-122 | 58-41 | 321-316 | |
| Total points | 133 | 165 | 240 | 99 | 637 | |
| Winners | 35 | 26 | 56 | 20 | 137 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 34% | 47% | 34% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 46/74 | 41/77 | 71/128 | 29/51 | 187/330 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 53% | 55% | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 35/46 | 26/41 | 56/71 | 20/29 | 137/187 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 63% | 79% | 69% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/28 | 21/36 | 31/57 | 17/22 | 90/143 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 58% | 54% | 77% | 63% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 1/2 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 4/6 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 20% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 17 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 6/8 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 12 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | 60% | 75% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (1-0) – H2H and prediction
