Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will fight against each other in the final of the U.S. Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.36
Jessica Pegula -> 3.25
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
This will be the 8th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula fight against each other. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-3 7-5 in the final in Cincinnati back in August 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula – Cincinnati 19-August-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
45 - 11win/loss
1
1
LLWWWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the final after defeating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1, Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4, Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2 and Emma Navarro 6-3 7-6(2).
In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Navarro (6-3 7-62). During the match, Sabalenka scored 72 points vs Navarro’s 60. Sabalenka was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 8 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 68% of her first serves in, winning 74% (35/47) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Navarro 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (363-165). 29-6 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled218-91 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.
Sabalenka has a composed 45-11 win-loss record in 2024, 29-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Jessica Pegula
36 - 11win/loss
7
3
LLLWLWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-9 | 16-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Pegula reached the final after defeating Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3, Sofia Kenin 7-6(4) 6-3, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3, Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2, Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4 and Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-4 6-2.
In the semifinal against Muchova, Jessica recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-4 6-2). During the match Pegula and Muchova scored the same amount of points (87). However, the world no. 2 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Jessica was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Pegula scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 4 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 67% of her first serves in, winning 58% (34/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (15/29) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Muchova 5 times after converting 38% of her break points (5/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jessica has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Berlin where she beat Anna Kalinskaya in the final 6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(3) and in Toronto where she defeated Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-3 2-6 6-1.
Pegula has an overall 36-11 win-loss record in 2024, 26-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 13 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 112 | 120 |
| Pts | 406-305 | 435-361 |
| Total Points | 711 | 796 |
| Winners | 172 | 177 |
| %Winners | 42% | 41% |
Both Sabalenka and Pegula played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Jessica Pegula surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Pegula have played the same amount of sets 13. However, Sabalenka played 8 games less than Pegula. Sabalenka scored 172 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Pegula fired 177 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 30 | 19 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 3.2 |
| 1st in | 236/364 | 247/401 |
| %1st in | 65% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 172/236 | 177/247 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 72/128 | 75/154 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 49% |
Sabalenka struck 30 aces (5 per match). Pegula scored 19 aces (3.2 per match). Sabalenka won 73% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 23 | 25 |
| Converted | 23/49 | 25/53 |
| % Converted | 47% | 47% |
| Conceded | 27 | 40 |
| Saved | 21 | 28 |
| % Saved | 78% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 12 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 23 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Belarussian dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded. Pegula broke her opponents 25 times with a 47% conversion rate. Jessica conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||||
| R1 Hon |
R2 Bronzetti |
R3 Alexandrova |
R4 Mertens |
1/4 Zheng |
1/2 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 22 | 112 | |
| pts | 65-48 | 55-34 | 80-65 | 74-57 | 60-41 | 72-60 | 406-305 | |
| Total points | 113 | 89 | 145 | 131 | 101 | 132 | 711 | |
| Winners | 26 | 23 | 31 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 172 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 50% | 49% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 30 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 36/60 | 30/41 | 45/72 | 37/64 | 41/58 | 47/69 | 236/364 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 73% | 63% | 58% | 71% | 68% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 26/36 | 23/30 | 31/45 | 27/37 | 30/41 | 35/47 | 172/236 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 77% | 69% | 73% | 73% | 74% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 9/11 | 14/27 | 16/27 | 9/17 | 10/22 | 72/128 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 82% | 52% | 59% | 53% | 45% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 23 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/8 | 5/14 | 3/6 | 4/8 | 3/6 | 23/49 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 50% | 36% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 4/7 | 8/8 | 1/1 | 3/5 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 57% | 100% | 100% | 60% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Pegula | ||||||||
| R1 Rogers |
R2 Kenin |
R3 Bouzas |
R4 Shnaider |
1/4 Swiatek |
1/2 Muchova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | 1-6 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 120 | |
| pts | 67-57 | 75-64 | 67-42 | 74-62 | 65-49 | 87-87 | 435-361 | |
| Total points | 124 | 139 | 109 | 136 | 114 | 174 | 796 | |
| Winners | 33 | 30 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 34 | 177 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 40% | 37% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 44/74 | 46/70 | 28/49 | 35/66 | 35/54 | 59/88 | 247/401 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 65% | 67% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 33/44 | 30/46 | 25/28 | 28/35 | 27/35 | 34/59 | 177/247 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 65% | 89% | 80% | 77% | 58% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/30 | 13/24 | 12/21 | 12/31 | 10/19 | 15/29 | 75/154 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 54% | 57% | 39% | 53% | 52% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/7 | 4/9 | 5/10 | 4/8 | 5/13 | 25/53 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 57% | 44% | 50% | 50% | 38% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 40 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 4/7 | 3/4 | 7/9 | 2/3 | 7/11 | 28 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 57% | 75% | 78% | 67% | 64% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LLLWLWWLWW Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko – Kristina Mladenovic/Shuai ZhangMladenovic/Shuai Zhang (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Johan NiklesNikles (6-3 7-67) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-5) – H2H and prediction
