Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng will clash against each other in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.24
Qinwen Zheng -> 4.25
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng play each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-2 in the final in at the Australian Open back in January 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng – Australian Open 27-January-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
43 - 11win/loss
1
1
LLWWWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Sabalenka reached the quarter after defeating Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1, Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2 and Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4.
In the 4th round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Mertens (6-2 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 74 points vs Mertens’s 57. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka fired 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 73% (27/37) of her 1st serve and 59% (16/27) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aryna broke Mertens 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 69% of her matches (361-165). 27-6 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate216-91 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was winning the title at the Australian Open where she defeated Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Cincinnati where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 7-5.
Aryna has an aggregate 43-11 win-loss record in 2024, 27-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Qinwen Zheng
37 - 13win/loss
5
5
LWWWLWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52-18 | 31-10 | 17-4 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-19 | 23-11 | 11-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-19 | 27-12 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-11 | 7-1 | 16-6 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 38-8 | 3-3 | 26-3 | 9-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7 (career-high), Qinwen got to the quarter after defeating Amanda Anisimova 4-6 6-4 6-2, Erika Andreeva 6-7(3) 6-1 6-2, Jule Niemeier 6-2 6-1 and Donna Vekic 7-6(2) 4-6 6-2.
In the 4th round, The Chinese defeated Vekic (7-62 4-6 6-2). During the match Zheng scored 107 points vs Vekic’s 100. Zheng was quite aggressive to blast 51 winners.
About the serving games, Zheng bagged 10 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Qinwen Zheng lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Zheng put 58% of her first serves in, winning 81% (51/63) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (19/46) on the 2nd serve. Zheng broke Vekic 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Zheng has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Palermo where she beat Karolina Muchova in the final 6-4 4-6 6-2 and in Paris where she overcame Donna Vekic in the final 6-2 6-3.
Zheng has an aggregate 37-13 win-loss record in 2024, 19-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 75 | 102 |
| Pts | 274-204 | 354-291 |
| Total Points | 478 | 645 |
| Winners | 107 | 142 |
| %Winners | 39% | 40% |
Both Sabalenka and Zheng played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set, while Qinwen Zheng conceded 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Zheng (9 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 27 games less than Zheng. Aryna scored 107 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Qinwen made 142 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 19 | 49 |
| Avg per match | 4.8 | 12.3 |
| 1st in | 148/237 | 178/327 |
| %1st in | 62% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 107/148 | 142/178 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 53/89 | 67/149 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 45% |
Sabalenka blasted 19 aces (4.8 per match). Zheng blasted 49 aces (12.3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Zheng won 80% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 20 |
| Converted | 16/35 | 20/39 |
| % Converted | 46% | 51% |
| Conceded | 21 | 25 |
| Saved | 17 | 17 |
| % Saved | 81% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 8 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 16 times with a 46% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 81% of the break points that she conceded. Zheng broke her opponents 20 times with a 51% conversion rate. Zheng conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R1 Hon |
R2 Bronzetti |
R3 Alexandrova |
R4 Mertens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | 2-6 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 75 | |
| pts | 65-48 | 55-34 | 80-65 | 74-57 | 274-204 | |
| Total points | 113 | 89 | 145 | 131 | 478 | |
| Winners | 26 | 23 | 31 | 27 | 107 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 36/60 | 30/41 | 45/72 | 37/64 | 148/237 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 73% | 63% | 58% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 26/36 | 23/30 | 31/45 | 27/37 | 107/148 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 77% | 69% | 73% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 9/11 | 14/27 | 16/27 | 53/89 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 82% | 52% | 59% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/8 | 5/14 | 3/6 | 16/35 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 50% | 36% | 50% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 21 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 0/0 | 4/7 | 8/8 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 83% | – | 57% | 100% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Zheng | ||||||
| R1 Anisimova |
R2 Andreeva |
R3 Niemeier |
R4 Vekic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-2 | 6-73 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-1 | 7-62 4-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 28 | 15 | 31 | 102 | |
| pts | 94-82 | 96-74 | 57-35 | 107-100 | 354-291 | |
| Total points | 176 | 170 | 92 | 207 | 645 | |
| Winners | 33 | 37 | 21 | 51 | 142 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 39% | 37% | 48% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 12 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 49 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 45/90 | 45/79 | 25/49 | 63/109 | 178/327 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 57% | 51% | 58% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 33/45 | 37/45 | 21/25 | 51/63 | 142/178 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 82% | 84% | 81% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/45 | 17/34 | 11/24 | 19/46 | 67/149 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 50% | 46% | 41% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 20 | |
| Converted | 6/11 | 6/15 | 5/5 | 3/8 | 20/39 | |
| Converted % | 55% | 40% | 100% | 38% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 25 | |
| Saved | 8/12 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 5/7 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 60% | 100% | 71% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LWWWLWWWWL Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Johan NiklesNikles – Manuel Pena LopezPena Lopez (3-6 6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo – Nino PortalesPortales (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Ignacio GalarzaIgnacio Galarza – Alexandar LazarovLazarov (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Emma NavarroNavarro (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
