Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko will square off in the quarter of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 7:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.363
Jelena Ostapenko -> 3.14

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko

This will be the 3^rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 2-6 6-1 6-1 in the 3^rd round in Dubai back in 2023.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko – Dubai 22-February-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian got to the quarter after beating Katie Volynets 4-6 6-3 6-2, Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-2 and Elina Svitolina 4-6 6-1 7-6⁷.

In the 4^th round against Svitolina, Sabalenka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-1 7-6⁷). During the match, Sabalenka scored 106 points vs Svitolina’s 97. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 49 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 13 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 72% of her first serves in, winning 58% (49/85) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (16/33) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Svitolina 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka has conceded 2 set in this event to win 54% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (341-160). 9-2 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled71-37 match record in the last 9 years on clay.

Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.

Aryna has a composed 23-6 win-loss record in 2024, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Jelena Ostapenko

Ranked no. 10, the Latvian got to the quarter after beating Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2, Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-4 5-7 6-1 and Rebecca Sramkova 4-6 6-4 7-6³.

In the 4^th round against Sramkova, Ostapenko recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 7-6³). During the match Ostapenko scored 113 points vs Sramkova’s 111. Ostapenko was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about serving, Ostapenko bagged 7 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 6 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 57% of her first serves in, winning 58% (36/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (22/46) on the 2nd serve. The Latvian broke Sramkova 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Latvian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she defeated Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Linz where she overcame Ekaterina Alexandrova in the final 6-2 6-3.

Jelena has a compiled 24-9 win-loss record in 2024, 7-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Ostapenko
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	8	8
Tot Games	75	80
Pts	277-238	292-268
Total Points	515	560
Winners	117	93
%Winners	42%	32%

Both Sabalenka and Ostapenko played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 2 sets, while Jelena Ostapenko dropped 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Ostapenko have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Sabalenka played 5 games less than Ostapenko. The Belarussian scored 117 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Latvian scored 93 winners (32%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Ostapenko
Aces	7	8
Avg per match	2.3	2.7
1st in	186/266	161/288
%1st in	70%	56%
1st pts	117/186	93/161
%1st pts	63%	58%
2nd pts	41/80	58/127
%2nd pts	51%	46%

Sabalenka made 7 aces (2.3 per match). Ostapenko scored 8 aces (2.7 per match). Sabalenka won 63% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 58% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Ostapenko
Won	16	21
Converted	16/30	21/40
% Converted	53%	53%
Conceded	36	38
Saved	26	22
% Saved	72%	58%
Times Broken	10	16

Sabalenka broke her opponents 16 times with a 53% conversion rate. Aryna lost her serve 10 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded. Jelena broke her opponents 21 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Latvian conceded her serve 16 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Volynets	R3 Yastremska	R4 Svitolina	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 6-2	6-4 6-2	4-6 6-1 7-67
Tot Set	3	2	3	8
Tot Games	27	18	30	75
pts	103-89	68-52	106-97	277-238
Total points	192	120	203	515
Winners	43	25	49	117
%Winners	42%	37%	46%	42%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	3	7
Double Faults	4	3	1	8
1st in	68/98	33/50	85/118	186/266
% 1st in	69%	66%	72%	70%
1st pts	43/68	25/33	49/85	117/186
% 1st pts	63%	76%	58%	63%
2nd pts	12/30	13/17	16/33	41/80
% 2nd pts	40%	76%	48%	51%
Breaks
Won	7	3	6	16
Converted	7/13	3/10	6/7	16/30
Converted %	54%	30%	86%	53%
Conceded	16	2	18	36
Saved	11/16	2/2	13/18	26
Saved %	69%	100%	72%	80%
Times Broken	5	0	5	10

Ostapenko
	R2 Potapova	R3 Sorribes Tormo	R4 Sramkova	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-4 5-7 6-1	4-6 6-4 7-63
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	18	29	33	80
pts	73-63	106-94	113-111	292-268
Total points	136	200	224	560
Winners	25	32	36	93
%Winners	34%	30%	32%	32%
SERVE
Aces	0	1	7	8
Double Faults	2	6	6	14
1st in	39/76	60/104	62/108	161/288
% 1st in	51%	58%	57%	56%
1st pts	25/39	32/60	36/62	93/161
% 1st pts	64%	53%	58%	58%
2nd pts	16/37	20/44	22/46	58/127
% 2nd pts	43%	45%	48%	46%
Breaks
Won	6	9	6	21
Converted	6/10	9/18	6/12	21/40
Converted %	60%	50%	50%	53%
Conceded	9	14	15	38
Saved	6/9	7/14	9/15	22
Saved %	67%	50%	60%	59%
Times Broken	3	7	6	16

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Sara Errani/Jasmine PaoliniErrani/Jasmine Paolini – Lyudmyla Kichenok/Jelena OstapenkoKichenok/Jelena Ostapenko (6-3 5-7 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Caroline Dolehide/Desirae KrawczykDolehide/Desirae Krawczyk – Giuliana Olmos/Alexandra PanovaOlmos/Alexandra Panova (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Madison KeysKeys (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Christopher EubanksEubanks – Ernesto EscobedoEscobedo (6-4 7-6⁶) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Thomas FabbianoFabbiano – Martin RedlickiRedlicki (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Prajnesh GunneswaranGunneswaran (4-6 6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Lloyd HarrisHarris – Liam BroadyBroady (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Cori GauffGauff – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-2) – H2H and prediction