Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Baez will face off in the 4^th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on PIETRANGELI. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hubert Hurkacz who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Hubert Hurkacz is the pick to win this match.
Hubert Hurkacz -> 1.56
Sebastian Baez -> 2.43

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Prediction and head to head Hubert Hurkacz vs. Sebastian Baez

There is no head to head record between Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Baez since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Hubert Hurkacz

Ranked no. 9, Hurkacz reached the 4^th round after defeating Rafael Nadal 6-1 6-3 and Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6⁷ 6-2.

In the 3^rd round, Hubert had a good straight sets win against Etcheverry (7-6⁷ 6-2). During the match, Hurkacz scored 77 points vs Etcheverry’s 66. The Pole was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Regarding the service games, Hurkacz blasted 11 aces and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Hubert Hurkacz was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 78% (36/46) of his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Pole was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Etcheverry twice.

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.

Hurkacz has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (375-222). 10-2 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Hurkacz has an aggregate 100-62 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Estoril where he beat Pedro Martinez Portero in the final 6-3 6-4.

Hurkacz has a composed 25-10 win-loss record in 2024, 10-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Sebastian Baez

Ranked no. 19 (career-high), Sebastian got to the 4^th round after defeating Dusan Lajovic 7-6³ 7-6⁶ and Holger Rune 2-6 6-2 6-3.

In the 3^rd round against Rune, The Argentine recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-2 6-3). During the match Baez scored 82 points vs Rune’s 65. Sebastian was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about serving, Baez wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 76% of his first serves in, winning 69% (38/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the 2nd serve. Baez broke Rune 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Baez has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Mariano Navone in the final 6-2 6-1 and in Santiago where he defeated Alejandro Tabilo in the final 3-6 6-0 6-4.

Sebastian has an aggregate 20-10 win-loss record in 2024, 17-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd

round in 2022 and 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Hurkacz	Baez
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	37	51
Pts	143-109	173-145
Total Points	252	318
Winners	61	77
%Winners	43%	45%

Both Hurkacz and Baez played 2 matches. At the moment, Sebastian Baez lost 1 set while Hubert Hurkacz hasn’t conceded a set so far. Hurkacz has played 1 set(s) less than Baez (4 vs 5). Therefore, Hurkacz played 14 games less than Baez. The Pole scored 61 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Argentine managed to score 77 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Hurkacz	Baez
Aces	20	1
Avg per match	10	0.5
1st in	76/133	124/160
%1st in	57%	78%
1st pts	61/76	77/124
%1st pts	80%	62%
2nd pts	33/57	18/36
%2nd pts	58%	50%

Hurkacz blasted 20 aces (10 per match). Baez recorded 1 ace (0.5 per match). Hurkacz won 80% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Baez won 62% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Hurkacz	Baez
Won	6	11
Converted	6/9	11/21
% Converted	67%	52%
Conceded	10	19
Saved	10	10
% Saved	100%	53%
Times Broken	0	9

Hubert broke his opponents 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Pole pretty solid on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 10 break points. Baez broke his opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. Baez conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 53% of the break points that he conceded.

Hurkacz
	R2 Nadal	R3 Etcheverry	Total
Score	6-1 6-3	7-67 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	16	21	37
pts	66-43	77-66	143-109
Total points	109	143	252
Winners	25	36	61
%Winners	38%	47%	43%
SERVE
Aces	9	11	20
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	30/56	46/77	76/133
% 1st in	54%	60%	57%
1st pts	25/30	36/46	61/76
% 1st pts	83%	78%	80%
2nd pts	16/26	17/31	33/57
% 2nd pts	62%	55%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	2	6
Converted	4/7	2/2	6/9
Converted %	57%	100%	67%
Conceded	7	3	10
Saved	7/7	3/3	10
Saved %	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Baez
	R2 Lajovic	R3 Rune	Total
Score	7-63 7-66	2-6 6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	26	25	51
pts	91-80	82-65	173-145
Total points	171	147	318
Winners	39	38	77
%Winners	43%	46%	45%
SERVE
Aces	1	0	1
Double Faults	2	3	5
1st in	69/88	55/72	124/160
% 1st in	78%	76%	78%
1st pts	39/69	38/55	77/124
% 1st pts	57%	69%	62%
2nd pts	9/19	9/17	18/36
% 2nd pts	47%	53%	50%
Breaks
Won	6	5	11
Converted	6/15	5/6	11/21
Converted %	40%	83%	52%
Conceded	13	6	19
Saved	7/13	3/6	10
Saved %	54%	50%	52%
Times Broken	6	3	9

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-2 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Dominik KoepferKoepfer (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-7² 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Sebastian BaezBaez – Holger RuneRune (2-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Hamad MedjedovicMedjedovic (7-6⁵ 2-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Nicolas JarryJarry – Stefano NapolitanoNapolitano (6-2 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexandre MullerMuller – Andrey RublevRublev (3-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6⁷ 6-2) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Terence AtmaneAtmane (7-6³ 6-3) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (6-2 4-6 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Luciano DarderiDarderi (7-6³ 6-2) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Francesco PassaroPassaro (4-6 7-6⁸ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Zhizhen ZhangZhang – Ben SheltonShelton (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Sebastian BaezBaez – Holger RuneRune (2-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Alexander ZverevZverev – Nuno BorgesBorges (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Zhizhen ZhangZhang – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Sebastian BaezBaez (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nicolas JarryJarry – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (12-2) – H2H and prediction