Aryna Sabalenka and Dayana Yastremska will square off in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.125
Dayana Yastremska -> 6.15
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Dayana Yastremska
This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Dayana Yastremska fight against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Yastremska (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Yastremska won 6-4 7-6(4) in the semifinal in Adelaide back in 2020.
Highlights Dayana Yastremska vs Aryna Sabalenka – Adelaide 17-January-2020
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Aryna reached the 3rd round after beating Katie Volynets 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Volynets, The Belarussian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 103 points vs Volynets’s 89. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka made 3 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 69% of her first serves in, winning 63% (43/68) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (12/30) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Volynets 7 times after converting 54% of her break points (7/13).
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (339-160). 7-2 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed69-37 record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Sabalenka has an overall 21-6 win-loss record in 2024, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Dayana Yastremska
15 - 9win/loss
33
21
LLLLLLLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21-21 | 12-12 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-29 | 19-13 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-25 | 7-11 | 5-4 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 7-12 | 3-8 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 17-12 | 10-7 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 33, the Ukrainian got to the 3rd round after beating Laura Siegemund 4-6 7-5 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Siegemund, Yastremska recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-5 6-2). During the match Yastremska scored 97 points vs Siegemund’s 89. Yastremska was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Yastremska scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 6 double faults. Dayana Yastremska lost the serve 6 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Yastremska put 48% of her first serves in, winning 61% (30/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (24/54) on the 2nd serve. Yastremska broke Siegemund 8 times after converting 73% of her break points (8/11).
The Ukrainian’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in at the Australian Open .
Yastremska has a compiled 15-9 win-loss record in 2024, 2-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 27 | 30 |
| Pts | 103-89 | 97-89 |
| Total Points | 192 | 186 |
| Winners | 43 | 30 |
| %Winners | 42% | 31% |
Both Sabalenka and Yastremska played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Dayana Yastremska dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Yastremska have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Sabalenka played 3 games less than Yastremska. Aryna scored 43 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Ukrainian managed to score 30 winners (31%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 1 |
| 1st in | 68/98 | 49/103 |
| %1st in | 69% | 48% |
| 1st pts | 43/68 | 30/49 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 61% |
| 2nd pts | 12/30 | 24/54 |
| %2nd pts | 40% | 44% |
Sabalenka managed to score 3 aces . Yastremska fired 1 ace . Sabalenka won 63% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 40% of the points. On the other side, Yastremska won 61% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 44% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Yastremska |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 8 |
| Converted | 7/13 | 8/11 |
| % Converted | 54% | 73% |
| Conceded | 16 | 15 |
| Saved | 11 | 9 |
| % Saved | 69% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 6 |
Sabalenka broke her opponent 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. The Belarussian conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded. The Ukrainian broke her opponent 8 times with a 73% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||
| R2 Volynets |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 27 | |
| pts | 103-89 | 103-89 | |
| Total points | 192 | 192 | |
| Winners | 43 | 43 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 68/98 | 68/98 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 43/68 | 43/68 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/30 | 12/30 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 40% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/13 | 7/13 | |
| Converted % | 54% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 16 | 16 | |
| Saved | 11/16 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 69% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | |
| Yastremska | |||
| R2 Siegemund |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |
| pts | 97-89 | 97-89 | |
| Total points | 186 | 186 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 31% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 49/103 | 49/103 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 48% | |
| 1st pts | 30/49 | 30/49 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/54 | 24/54 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 44% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 8 | 8 | |
| Converted | 8/11 | 8/11 | |
| Converted % | 73% | 73% | |
| Conceded | 15 | 15 | |
| Saved | 9/15 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
LLLLLLLWLW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Angelique KerberKerber – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (6-3 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (5-7 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (7-61 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Linda NoskovaNoskova (3-6 6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Madison KeysMadison – Beatriz Haddad MaiaBeatriz (6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Cori GauffGauff – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Mayar SherifSherif (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Caroline GarciaGarcia (4-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Irina-Camelia BeguBegu (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sofia KeninKenin – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Angelique KerberKerber (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Qinwen ZhengZheng (1-0) – H2H and prediction
