Daria Kasatkina and Naomi Osaka will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:30 pm on GRAND STAND ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daria Kasatkina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daria Kasatkina is the pick to win this match.
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.68
Naomi Osaka -> 2.19
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Naomi Osaka
This will be the 2nd time that Daria Kasatkina and Naomi Osaka fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Osaka won 6-3 6-2 in the final in Indian Wells back in 2018.
Highlights Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina – Indian Wells 18-March-2018
Daria Kasatkina
19 - 10win/loss
11
8
LWLWLWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35-21 | 19-15 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 18-14 | 7-8 | 5-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Darya reached the 3rd round after beating Tatjana Maria 7-5 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Kasatkina had a good straight sets win against Maria (7-5 6-1). During the match, Kasatkina scored 77 points vs Maria’s 58. Darya was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kasatkina scored just 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 5 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve 4 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 71% of her first serves in, winning 59% (30/51) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (8/21) on the 2nd serve. Darya broke Maria 8 times after converting 53% of her break points (8/15).
Kasatkina has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of her matches (336-194). 7-2 on clay in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Kasatkina has an aggregate 120-51 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Kasatkina’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Adelaide, Abu Dhabi and Charleston.
Darya has an aggregate 19-10 win-loss record in 2024, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Naomi Osaka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22-18 | 13-10 | 5-5 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 14-9 | 13-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-6 | 16-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-3 | 16-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 173, the Japanese reached the 3rd round after beating Clara Burel 7-62 6-1 and Marta Kostyuk 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Naomi had a good straight sets win against Kostyuk (6-3 6-2). During the match Osaka scored 64 points vs Kostyuk’s 40. Naomi was pretty aggressive to blast 17 winners.
About the serving games, Osaka managed to score 2 aces and she was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Naomi Osaka was very efficient on serve to win 85% (17/20) of her 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. The Japanese broke Kostyuk 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Japanese hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.
Osaka has a composed 11-8 win-loss record in 2024, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 19 | 37 |
| Pts | 77-58 | 136-94 |
| Total Points | 135 | 230 |
| Winners | 30 | 45 |
| %Winners | 39% | 33% |
Kasatkina played 1 match while Osaka competed in 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Kasatkina has played 2 set(s) less than Osaka (2 vs 4). Therefore, Kasatkina played 18 games less than Osaka. Darya scored 30 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Naomi fired 45 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 5 |
| 1st in | 51/72 | 54/105 |
| %1st in | 71% | 51% |
| 1st pts | 30/51 | 45/54 |
| %1st pts | 59% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 8/21 | 28/51 |
| %2nd pts | 38% | 55% |
Kasatkina managed to score 1 ace . Osaka also managed to score 10 aces (5 per match). Kasatkina won 59% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 38% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 83% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 9 |
| Converted | 8/15 | 9/16 |
| % Converted | 53% | 56% |
| Conceded | 9 | 7 |
| Saved | 5 | 4 |
| % Saved | 56% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 |
The Russian broke her opponent 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. Kasatkina conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. Osaka broke her opponents 9 times with a 56% conversion rate. Osaka conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | |||
| R2 Maria |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 77-58 | 77-58 | |
| Total points | 135 | 135 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 51/72 | 51/72 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 30/51 | 30/51 | |
| % 1st pts | 59% | 59% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/21 | 8/21 | |
| % 2nd pts | 38% | 38% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 8 | 8 | |
| Converted | 8/15 | 8/15 | |
| Converted % | 53% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 9 | |
| Saved | 5/9 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
| Osaka | ||||
| R1 Burel |
R2 Kostyuk |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-62 6-1 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 17 | 37 | |
| pts | 72-54 | 64-40 | 136-94 | |
| Total points | 126 | 104 | 230 | |
| Winners | 28 | 17 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 27% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 34/61 | 20/44 | 54/105 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 45% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 28/34 | 17/20 | 45/54 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 85% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/27 | 14/24 | 28/51 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 58% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 5/7 | 9/16 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 71% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 2/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 50% | 117% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWLWWWLW
LWWWLWLWLW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Anhelina KalininaKalinina – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Sofia KeninKenin – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-5 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-3 1-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Clara TausonTauson (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-4 ret.) – See score progression
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Xinyu WangWang (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Sloane StephensStephens (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Jaqueline CristianCristian – Elina AvanesyanAvanesyan (5-7 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (6-0 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Bernarda PeraPera (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Shelby RogersRogers (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Angelique KerberKerber – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Tatjana MariaMaria (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Lucrezia StefaniniStefanini (6-3 7-61) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Ana BogdanBogdan (6-2 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Emma NavarroNavarro (1-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Brenda FruhvirtovaFruhvirtova (7-5 6-0) – See score progression
- Thomas FabbianoFabbiano – Stefano NapolitanoNapolitano (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Joris De LooreDe Loore (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Liam BroadyBroady – Jay ClarkeClarke (7-63 6-4) – See score progression
- Martin RedlickiRedlicki – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Prajnesh GunneswaranGunneswaran – Jc AragoneAragone (4-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis – Kaichi UchidaUchida (7-5 6-0) – See score progression
- Ernesto EscobedoEscobedo – Aleksandar VukicVukic (7-66 7-61) – See score progression
- Christopher EubanksEubanks – Michael MmohMmoh (7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Anhelina KalininaKalinina – Lesya TsurenkoTsurenko (2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Magda LinetteLinette (6-7(5) 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-4 ret.) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Elisabetta CocciarettoCocciaretto (6-2 7-6(5)) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Sofia KeninKenin – Ons JabeurJabeur (7-5 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-3 1-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Sara ErraniErrani (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Clara TausonTauson (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (4-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Mayar SherifSherif – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Irina-Camelia BeguBegu – Oceane DodinDodin (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Rebecca SramkovaSramkova – Katie BoulterBoulter (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Katie VolynetsVolynets – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Angelique KerberKerber – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Madison KeysKeys (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Caroline GarciaGarcia (4-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (0-0) – H2H and prediction
