Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime will play each other in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Andrey Rublev who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Andrey Rublev is the pick to win this match.
Andrey Rublev -> 1.38
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 3.14
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Prediction and head to head Andrey Rublev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
This will be the 6th time that Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime square off. The head to head is 4-1 for Rublev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Rublev won 3-6 7-6(6) 7-5 in the 2nd round in Rotterdam back in February 2024.
Highlights Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime – Rotterdam 14-February-2024
Andrey Rublev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-10 | 17-4 | 10-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Rublev reached the final after defeating Facundo Bagnis 6-1 6-4, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-610 6-4, Tallon Griekspoor 6-2 6-4, Carlos Alcaraz 4-6 6-3 6-2 and Taylor Fritz 6-4 6-3.
In the semifinal, Andrey had a good straight sets win against Fritz (6-4 6-3). During the match, Rublev scored 61 points vs Fritz’s 47. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rublev managed to score 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Andrey Rublev lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 75% of his first serves in, winning 83% (38/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (6/15) on the 2nd serve. Rublev broke Fritz 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrey has conceded 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Rublev has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (410-228). 5-2 on clay in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Rublev has a composed 102-63 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Hong Kong where he beat Emil Ruusuvuori in the final 6-4 6-4.
The Russian has a composed 20-8 win-loss record in 2024, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Felix Auger-Aliassime
16 - 10win/loss
29
6
LWLWLLWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32-25 | 6-10 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-19 | 13-13 | 1-3 | 9-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 60-27 | 14-9 | 11-7 | 31-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-24 | 19-10 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 10-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 23-19 | 8-8 | 1-3 | 14-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 35, Auger-Aliassime got to the final after defeating Yoshihito Nishioka 4-6 6-1 6-4, Adrian Mannarino 6-0 6-4, Jakub Mensik 6-1 1-0 ret., Casper Ruud 6-4 7-5, Jannik Sinner w/o and Jiri Lehecka 3-3 ret..
In the semifinal against Lehecka, Felix had a free pass after Lehecka retired on a 3-3 . scoreline.
Auger-Aliassime’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Montpellier and Madrid.
Felix has an aggregate 16-10 win-loss record in 2024, 8-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rublev | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 104 | 79 |
| Pts | 374-296 | 268-203 |
| Total Points | 670 | 471 |
| Winners | 187 | 116 |
| %Winners | 50% | 43% |
Both Rublev and Auger-Aliassime played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrey Rublev lost 1 set, while Felix Auger-Aliassime conceded 1 set. Rublev has played 1 set(s) less than Auger-Aliassime (11 vs 12). However, it’s interesting to notice that Rublev played 25 games more than Auger-Aliassime. The Russian scored 187 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Auger-Aliassime scored 116 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rublev | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 28 | 25 |
| Avg per match | 5.6 | 5 |
| 1st in | 238/325 | 140/217 |
| %1st in | 73% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 187/238 | 116/140 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 46/87 | 43/77 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 56% |
Rublev scored 28 aces (5.6 per match). Auger-Aliassime recorded 25 aces (5 per match). Rublev won 79% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Auger-Aliassime won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rublev | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 13 |
| Converted | 15/43 | 13/29 |
| % Converted | 35% | 45% |
| Conceded | 21 | 4 |
| Saved | 17 | 2 |
| % Saved | 81% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
Rublev broke his opponents 15 times with a 35% conversion rate. Rublev lost his serve 4 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded. Auger-Aliassime broke his opponents 13 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Canadian conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rublev | |||||||
| R2 Bagnis |
R3 Davidovich Fokina |
R4 Griekspoor |
1/4 Alcaraz |
1/2 Fritz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 7-610 6-4 | 6-2 6-4 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 23 | 18 | 27 | 19 | 104 | |
| pts | 76-58 | 86-75 | 60-40 | 91-76 | 61-47 | 374-296 | |
| Total points | 134 | 161 | 100 | 167 | 108 | 670 | |
| Winners | 28 | 38 | 32 | 51 | 38 | 187 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 44% | 53% | 56% | 62% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 28 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 40/60 | 55/75 | 33/43 | 64/86 | 46/61 | 238/325 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 73% | 77% | 74% | 75% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 28/40 | 38/55 | 32/33 | 51/64 | 38/46 | 187/238 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 69% | 97% | 80% | 83% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/20 | 15/20 | 4/10 | 10/22 | 6/15 | 46/87 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 75% | 40% | 45% | 40% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 2/7 | 3/7 | 3/13 | 3/6 | 15/43 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 29% | 43% | 23% | 50% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 21 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 2/3 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 83% | – | 88% | 67% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Auger-Aliassime | ||||||||
| R1 Nishioka |
R2 Mannarino |
R3 Mensik |
R4 Ruud |
1/4 Sinner |
1/2 Lehecka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-1 6-4 | 6-0 6-4 | 6-1 1-0 ret. | 6-4 7-5 | w/o | 3-3 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | – | 1 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 16 | 8 | 22 | – | 6 | 79 | |
| pts | 95-75 | 55-32 | 28-11 | 74-67 | – | 16-18 | 268-203 | |
| Total points | 170 | 87 | 39 | 141 | – | 34 | 471 | |
| Winners | 44 | 20 | 11 | 32 | – | 9 | 116 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 36% | 39% | 43% | – | 56% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | – | 5 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | – | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 54/69 | 24/43 | 12/21 | 41/69 | – | 9/15 | 140/217 | |
| % 1st in | 78% | 56% | 57% | 59% | – | 60% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 44/54 | 20/24 | 11/12 | 32/41 | – | 9/9 | 116/140 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 83% | 92% | 78% | – | 100% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/15 | 13/19 | 5/9 | 14/28 | – | 3/6 | 43/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 68% | 56% | 50% | – | 50% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | – | 0 | 13 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 4/7 | 3/3 | 3/8 | – | 0/1 | 13/29 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 57% | 100% | 38% | – | 0% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | – | 0 | 4 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/3 | – | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | – | 67% | – | – | 13% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | – | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWLLWWLW
LWLWLLWWWL Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Sebastian Korda/Jordan ThompsonKorda/Jordan Thompson – Ariel Behar/Adam PavlasekBehar/Adam Pavlasek (6-3 7-67) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Andrey RublevRublev (1-4) – H2H and prediction
