Illya Marchenko and Rio Noguchi will clash against each other in the 2nd round of the Busan Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 1:30 pm on COURT 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rio Noguchi who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rio Noguchi is the pick to win this match.
Rio Noguchi -> 1.85
Illya Marchenko -> 1.89
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Prediction and head to head Illya Marchenko vs. Rio Noguchi
This will be the 2nd time that Illya Marchenko and Rio Noguchi face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Marchenko (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Marchenko won 6-3 3-6 7-6(2) in the quarter in the Salinas Challenger back in 2023.
Illya Marchenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-22 | 17-5 | 6-6 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-25 | 9-10 | 3-4 | 8-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-28 | 5-7 | 2-5 | 26-12 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 15-14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 15-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 256, Illya reached the 2nd round after beating Alex Bolt 6-1 7-61.
In the 1st round, The Ukrainian had a good straight sets win against Bolt (6-1 7-61). During the match, Marchenko scored 78 points vs Bolt’s 62. Illya was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Marchenko fired 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Illya Marchenko lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Marchenko put 58% of his first serves in, winning 83% (33/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 34% (10/29) on the 2nd serve. The Ukrainian broke Bolt 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Marchenko has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (262-205). 1-3 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Marchenko has a composed 93-78 match record in the last years on hard.
The Ukrainian has a composed 3-7 win-loss record in 2024, 1-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Busan Challenger
Rio Noguchi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21-13 | 17-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 19-31 | 12-18 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 54-22 | 41-10 | 9-9 | 0-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-26 | 18-18 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 14-12 | 5-6 | 0-3 | 3-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 343, Rio got to the 2nd round after beating Woobin Shin 3-6 7-64 6-4, James McCabe 6-4 6-2 and Bu Yunchaokete 7-5 7-5.
In the 1st round, Rio had a good straight sets win against Yunchaokete (7-5 7-5). During the match Noguchi scored 87 points vs Yunchaokete’s 75. The Japanese was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Noguchi wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Rio Noguchi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Noguchi put 65% of his first serves in, winning 62% (32/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (17/28) on the 2nd serve. Noguchi broke Yunchaokete 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Rio’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M25 Swan Hill.
Noguchi has an overall 15-8 win-loss record in 2024, 11-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Marchenko | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 74 |
| Pts | 78-62 | 256-213 |
| Total Points | 140 | 469 |
| Winners | 33 | 92 |
| %Winners | 42% | 36% |
Marchenko played 1 match while Noguchi competed in 3 matches. Noguchi started his run from the qualifications while Marchenko had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Rio Noguchi conceded 1 set while Illya Marchenko hasn’t lost a set so far. Marchenko has played 5 set(s) less than Noguchi (2 vs 7). Therefore, Marchenko played 54 games less than Noguchi. Marchenko scored 33 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese fired 92 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Marchenko | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 0.7 |
| 1st in | 40/69 | 134/220 |
| %1st in | 58% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 33/40 | 92/134 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 10/29 | 51/86 |
| %2nd pts | 34% | 59% |
Marchenko scored 5 aces . Noguchi recorded 2 aces (0.7 per match). Marchenko won 83% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 34% of the points. On the other side, Noguchi won 69% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Marchenko | Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 14 |
| Converted | 5/11 | 14/28 |
| % Converted | 45% | 50% |
| Conceded | 4 | 17 |
| Saved | 2 | 8 |
| % Saved | 50% | 47% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 9 |
Illya broke his opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Illya conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 14 times with a 50% conversion rate. Noguchi conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 47% of the break points that he conceded.
| Marchenko | |||
| R1 Bolt |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-61 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 78-62 | 78-62 | |
| Total points | 140 | 140 | |
| Winners | 33 | 33 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 40/69 | 40/69 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 33/40 | 33/40 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/29 | 10/29 | |
| % 2nd pts | 34% | 34% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Noguchi | |||||
| Q1 Shin |
Q3 McCabe |
R1 Yunchaokete |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-64 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | 7-5 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 18 | 24 | 74 | |
| pts | 101-90 | 68-48 | 87-75 | 256-213 | |
| Total points | 191 | 116 | 162 | 469 | |
| Winners | 33 | 27 | 32 | 92 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 40% | 37% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 47/83 | 35/57 | 52/80 | 134/220 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 61% | 65% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 33/47 | 27/35 | 32/52 | 92/134 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 77% | 62% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/36 | 14/22 | 17/28 | 51/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 64% | 61% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 5 | 14 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 3/9 | 5/11 | 14/28 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 33% | 45% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 1 | 8 | 17 | |
| Saved | 2/8 | 1/1 | 5/8 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 100% | 63% | 188% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLLLLLWW
LWLWWLWWLW Tennis Scores in Busan Challenger
- Alibek KachmazovKachmazov – Altug CelikbilekCelikbilek (6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Seong Chan HongChan Hong – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Yasutaka UchiyamaUchiyama – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Dane SweenySweeny – Yanki ErelErel (4-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- James DuckworthDuckworth – Hoyoung RohRoh (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Mark LajalLajal – Yunseong ChungChung (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Soon-Woo KwonKwon – Mattia BellucciBellucci (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Tung-Lin WuWu – Yu Hsiou HsuHsiou Hsu (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – Ricardas BerankisBerankis (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Blake EllisEllis – Antoine EscoffierEscoffier (6-71 6-3 7-64) – See score progression
- Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Alexander BlockxBlockx (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Paul JubbJubb – Li TuTu (7-63 6-1) – See score progression
- Arthur FeryFery – Jules MarieMarie (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Philip SekulicSekulic – Ji Sung NamSung Nam (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Illya MarchenkoMarchenko – Alex BoltBolt (6-1 7-61) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Illya MarchenkoMarchenko – Rio NoguchiNoguchi (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- James DuckworthDuckworth – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Yasutaka UchiyamaUchiyama – Dane SweenySweeny (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tung-Lin WuWu – Paul JubbJubb (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Lloyd HarrisHarris – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
