H2H, prediction of Matteo Arnaldi vs Denis Shapovalov in Miami with odds, preview, pick | 24th March 2024

PREVIEW. Miami. Arnaldi and Shapovalov will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Miami Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Sunday the 24th of March

By
Mark Hall
-
Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Denis Shapovalov

Matteo Arnaldi and Denis Shapovalov will square off in the 3rd round of the Miami Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 4:00 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.8
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.02

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

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Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Denis Shapovalov

This will be the 2nd time that Matteo Arnaldi and Denis Shapovalov fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Shapovalov (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Shapovalov won 6-2 3-6 6-3 6-3 in the 2nd round in at the French Open back in 2023.

Highlights Denis Shapovalov vs Matteo Arnaldi – French Open 31-May-2023

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi

10 - 7win/loss

Hard
10-7
I Hard
0-0
Rank
36
High
35
WLWWWLLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 14-10 10-8 4-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2023 51-26 21-15 23-7 4-3 3-1 0-0
2022 50-35 9-3 37-20 4-11 0-1 0-0
2021 56-24 2-1 51-18 3-5 0-0 0-0
2020 17-9 16-4 0-1 1-3 0-0 0-1
See all years

Ranked no. 38 (career-high), Matteo got to the 3rd round after beating Arthur Fils 6-3 6-4 and Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-1.

In the 2nd round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Bublik (6-4 6-1). During the match, Arnaldi scored 68 points vs Bublik’s 53. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Arnaldi scored 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 58% of his first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Bublik 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to conquer 57% of the points he played.

Arnaldi has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 63% of his matches (196-115). 9-7 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Arnaldi has a composed66-35 match record in the last 7 years on hard.

Arnaldi has a compiled 9-7 win-loss record in 2024, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Arnaldi
Miami
Arnaldi's Record

Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov

6 - 8win/loss

Hard
3-5
I Hard
3-3
Rank
132
High
10
WWLLLWWLWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2024 8-10 3-5 2-2 3-3 0-0 0-0
2023 13-13 6-6 3-3 0-1 4-3 0-0
2022 34-26 22-12 4-4 7-6 1-4 0-0
2021 30-23 11-11 7-6 4-3 8-3 0-0
2020 17-15 8-6 5-2 4-7 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 126, Shapovalov reached the 3rd round after beating Luciano Darderi 6-3 6-73 6-4 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Denis had a good straight sets win against Tsitsipas (6-2 6-4). During the match Shapovalov scored 82 points vs Tsitsipas’s 64. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Shapovalov made 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Denis Shapovalov was extremely efficient on serve to win 89% (25/28) of his 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Shapovalov broke Tsitsipas 3 times after converting 17% of his break points (3/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Denis has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Canadian has a composed 6-7 win-loss record in 2024, 3-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See his history.

Shapovalov
Miami
Shapovalov's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Arnaldi
D.Shapovalov
2h:45
2h:45
Time on court​
!
4h:10
4h:10
1h:19
1h:19
Last match​
1h:43
1h:43
2
2
Match played
2
2
36
36
Games Played​
50
50
4
4
Set played​​
5
5
138
138
Total points​
201
201
69
69
Avg point​
100.5
100.5
54
54
Winners
72
72
27
27
Avg Winners​
36
36
39%
39%
Ratio winners
36%
36%
-- Serve --
11
11
Aces
19
19
5.5
5.5
Avg Aces
9.5
9.5
3
3
Double Faults
11
11
1.5
1.5
Avg Double Faults
!
5.5
5.5
54/65
54/65
1st won total​
72/89
72/89
!
83%
83%
1st won %
!
81%
81%
27/46
27/46
2nd won total​
27/48
27/48
59%
59%
2nd won %
56%
56%
-- Break Points --
6/18
6/18
BP won
7/30
7/30
3/9
3/9
Avg BP won
3.5/15
3.5/15
33%
33%
Won
!
23%
23%
5
5
Conceded
1
1
2.5
2.5
Avg Conceded
0.5
0.5
1
1
Broken
1
1
!
0.5
0.5
Avg Broken
!
0.5
0.5
4
4
Saved
0
0
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Arnaldi Shapovalov
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 5
Tot Games 36 50
Pts 138-103 201-170
Total Points 241 371
Winners 54 72
%Winners 39% 36%

Both Arnaldi and Shapovalov played 2 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov lost 1 set while Matteo Arnaldi hasn’t dropped a set so far. Arnaldi has played 1 set(s) less than Shapovalov (4 vs 5). Therefore, Arnaldi played 14 games less than Shapovalov. Arnaldi scored 54 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Denis scored 72 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve Arnaldi Shapovalov
Aces 11 19
Avg per match 5.5 9.5
1st in 65/111 89/137
%1st in 59% 65%
1st pts 54/65 72/89
%1st pts 83% 81%
2nd pts 27/46 27/48
%2nd pts 59% 56%

Arnaldi fired 11 aces (5.5 per match). Shapovalov scored 19 aces (9.5 per match). Arnaldi won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Arnaldi Shapovalov
Won 6 7
Converted 6/18 7/30
% Converted 33% 23%
Conceded 5 1
Saved 4 0
% Saved 80% 0%
Times Broken 1 1

The Italian broke his opponents 6 times with a 33% conversion rate. Matteo surrendered his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Denis broke his opponents 7 times with a 23% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.

Arnaldi
R1
Fils		 R2
Bublik		 Total
Score 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 19 17 36
pts 70-50 68-53 138-103
Total points 120 121 241
Winners 27 27 54
%Winners 39% 40% 39%
SERVE
Aces 5 6 11
Double Faults 1 2 3
1st in 29/49 36/62 65/111
% 1st in 59% 58% 59%
1st pts 27/29 27/36 54/65
% 1st pts 93% 75% 83%
2nd pts 14/20 13/26 27/46
% 2nd pts 70% 50% 59%
Breaks
Won 2 4 6
Converted 2/10 4/8 6/18
Converted % 20% 50% 33%
Conceded 0 5 5
Saved 0/0 4/5 4
Saved % – 80% 40%
Times Broken 0 1 1
Shapovalov
R1
Darderi		 R2
Tsitsipas		 Total
Score 6-3 6-73 6-4 6-2 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 32 18 50
pts 119-106 82-64 201-170
Total points 225 146 371
Winners 47 25 72
%Winners 39% 30% 36%
SERVE
Aces 16 3 19
Double Faults 8 3 11
1st in 61/90 28/47 89/137
% 1st in 68% 60% 65%
1st pts 47/61 25/28 72/89
% 1st pts 77% 89% 81%
2nd pts 15/29 12/19 27/48
% 2nd pts 52% 63% 56%
Breaks
Won 4 3 7
Converted 4/12 3/18 7/30
Converted % 33% 17% 23%
Conceded 1 0 1
Saved 0/1 0/0 0
Saved % 0% – 0%
Times Broken 1 0 1

Head 2 Head

Matteo Arnaldi
  • 0Slam
  • 0Main
  • 4Chall
  • 2Minor
Denis Shapovalov
  • 0Slam
  • 2Main
  • 2Chall
  • 4Minor

Matteo
Arnaldi

1:1

Denis
Shapovalov

Rank

36

High

35

1Hard0

0Clay1

Rank

132

High

10

Win Loss
Arnaldi
WLWWWLLWWW
Shapovalov
WWLLLWWLWL
2024 2023 2022
14 - 10
8 - 10
10-8
Hard
3-5
0-0
I Hard
3-3
4-2
Clay
2-2

Tennis Scores in Miami

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw

Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi
More Stats
Click here
Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov