Jelena Ostapenko and Maria Lourdes Carle will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM 3. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jelena Ostapenko who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jelena Ostapenko is the pick to win this match.
Jelena Ostapenko -> 1.38
Maria Lourdes Carle -> 3.05
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Prediction and head to head Jelena Ostapenko vs. Maria Lourdes Carle
There is no head to head record between Jelena Ostapenko and Maria Lourdes Carle since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Jelena Ostapenko
20 - 8win/loss
10
5
LWWLWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21-9 | 13-6 | 4-3 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 3-2 | 4-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Jelena reached the 3rd round after defeating Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Ostapenko had a good straight sets win against Bouzas Maneiro (6-3 6-1). During the match, Ostapenko scored 61 points vs Bouzas Maneiro’s 45. Ostapenko was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ostapenko fired 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 68% of her first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 31% (5/16) on the 2nd serve. Ostapenko broke Bouzas Maneiro 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).
Ostapenko has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 60% of her matches (302-198). 3-2 on clay in 2024. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Ostapenko has an aggregate 63-41 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Daria Kasatkina in the final 6-3 6-2 and in Linz where she beat Ekaterina Alexandrova in the final 6-2 6-3.
Ostapenko has an aggregate 20-8 win-loss record in 2024, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Maria Lourdes Carle
25 - 6win/loss
71
71
WWLWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27-7 | 7-4 | 18-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 2-7 | 40-22 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-36 | 15-12 | 34-23 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-27 | 16-8 | 29-19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 31-7 | 27-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 82 (career-high), the Argentine reached the 3rd round after beating Taylah Preston 6-2 7-5, Astra Sharma 6-3 7-5, Emma Raducanu 6-2 6-2 and Veronika Kudermetova 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Maria had a good straight sets win against Kudermetova (6-4 6-4). During the match Lourdes scored 80 points vs Kudermetova’s 73. The Argentine was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Lourdes wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 4 double faults. Maria Lourdes Carle lost the serve 4 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Lourdes put 73% of her first serves in, winning 65% (31/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 22% (4/18) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Kudermetova 6 times after converting 50% of her break points (6/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Maria started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title the W75+H Vero Beach where she overcame Gabriela Lee in the final 6-4 7-6(4) and the La Bisbal D’Emporda where she beat Rebeka Masarova in the final 3-6 6-1 6-2.
Maria has a compiled 25-6 win-loss record in 2024, 16-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Maria has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ostapenko | Lourdes |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 16 | 77 |
| Pts | 61-45 | 291-223 |
| Total Points | 106 | 514 |
| Winners | 24 | 119 |
| %Winners | 39% | 41% |
Ostapenko played 1 match while Lourdes competed in 4 matches. Lourdes started her run from the qualifications while Ostapenko had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Ostapenko has played 6 set(s) less than Lourdes (2 vs 8). Therefore, Ostapenko played 61 games less than Lourdes. The Latvian scored 24 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Lourdes bagged 119 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ostapenko | Lourdes |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 0.5 |
| 1st in | 34/50 | 188/245 |
| %1st in | 68% | 77% |
| 1st pts | 24/34 | 119/188 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 63% |
| 2nd pts | 5/16 | 27/57 |
| %2nd pts | 31% | 47% |
Ostapenko struck 2 aces . Lourdes managed to score 2 aces (0.5 per match). Ostapenko won 71% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 31% of the points. On the other side, Lourdes won 63% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ostapenko | Lourdes |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 23 |
| Converted | 6/7 | 23/46 |
| % Converted | 86% | 50% |
| Conceded | 4 | 24 |
| Saved | 2 | 13 |
| % Saved | 50% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 11 |
The Latvian broke her opponent 6 times with a 86% conversion rate. Ostapenko dropped her serve twice and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Argentine broke her opponents 23 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.
| Ostapenko | |||
| R2 Bouzas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | |
| pts | 61-45 | 61-45 | |
| Total points | 106 | 106 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 34/50 | 34/50 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 24/34 | 24/34 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/16 | 5/16 | |
| % 2nd pts | 31% | 31% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/7 | 6/7 | |
| Converted % | 86% | 86% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Lourdes | ||||||
| Q1 Preston |
Q3 Sharma |
R1 Raducanu |
R2 Kudermetova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-5 | 6-3 7-5 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 77 | |
| pts | 74-54 | 70-54 | 67-42 | 80-73 | 291-223 | |
| Total points | 128 | 124 | 109 | 153 | 514 | |
| Winners | 30 | 26 | 32 | 31 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 37% | 48% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 48/59 | 38/51 | 54/69 | 48/66 | 188/245 | |
| % 1st in | 81% | 75% | 78% | 73% | 77% | |
| 1st pts | 30/48 | 26/38 | 32/54 | 31/48 | 119/188 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 68% | 59% | 65% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/11 | 9/13 | 9/15 | 4/18 | 27/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 69% | 60% | 22% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/18 | 6/7 | 6/12 | 23/46 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 28% | 86% | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 24 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 2/4 | 7/9 | 3/7 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 50% | 78% | 43% | 196% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWLWLWL
WWLWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Mayar SherifSherif – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Cristina BucsaBucsa (5-7 7-65 6-3) – See score progression
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Daria SavilleSaville (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Caroline DolehideDolehide – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-76 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Magda LinetteLinette (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Linda NoskovaNoskova (4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Victoria Jimenez KasintsevaJimenez Kasintseva (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Irina-Camelia BeguBegu (7-63 7-66) – See score progression
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Emiliana ArangoArango (0-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Anna SchmiedlovaSchmiedlova (6-4 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Nadia PodoroskaPodoroska (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Sloane StephensStephens – Elise MertensMertens (3-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Xiyu WangWang (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Sara ErraniErrani (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (6-2 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Alexandra EalaEala (6-3 6-76 6-4) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Donna VekicVekic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Tatjana MariaMaria (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Arantxa RusRus (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Maria Lourdes CarleLourdes Carle – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Zihao XiaXia – Di WuWu (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Ze ZhangZhang – Yusuke TakahashiTakahashi (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Denis YevseyevYevseyev – Harri HeliovaaraHeliovaara (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Tsung-Hua YangYang (4-6 7-64 7-5) – See score progression
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Tatsuma ItoIto (7-67 7-5) – See score progression
- Duckhee LeeLee – Yibing WuWu (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
- James WardWard – Arjun KadheKadhe (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Zhizhen ZhangZhang – Zhe LiLi (4-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Qinwen ZhengZheng (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Caroline DolehideDolehide – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-7(6) 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Daria SavilleSaville (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Cristina BucsaBucsa (5-7 7-6(5) 6-3) – See score progression
- Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Mayar SherifSherif – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Linda NoskovaNoskova (4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Xinyu WangWang (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Victoria Jimenez KasintsevaJimenez Kasintseva (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Magda LinetteLinette (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Shelby RogersRogers (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Olga DanilovicDanilovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jaqueline CristianCristian – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Katie BoulterBoulter – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Sara Sorribes TormoSorribes Tormo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Emma NavarroNavarro (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sloane StephensStephens – Maria SakkariSakkari (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Maria Lourdes CarleLourdes Carle (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Ons JabeurJabeur (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva – Caroline DolehideDolehide (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Mayar SherifSherif – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (5-2) – H2H and prediction
