Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will square off in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on STADIUM 1 . In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.4
Daniil Medvedev -> 3.04
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev
This will be the 6th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev clash against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 6-4 6-4 in the R in Nitto atp finals back in 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev – Nitto atp finals 17-November-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Spaniard got to the final after defeating Matteo Arnaldi 6-75 6-0 6-1, Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-2 6-3, Fabian Marozsan 6-3 6-3, Alexander Zverev 6-3 6-1 and Jannik Sinner 1-6 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal against Sinner, Carlos recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Alcaraz scored 75 points vs Sinner’s 71. Alcaraz was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz couldn’t to score even 1 ace during the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 65% of his first serves in, winning 70% (33/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (13/25) on the 2nd serve. Carlos broke Sinner 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos has surrendered 2 set in this competition to win 58% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 7 years having won 79% of his matches (244-66). 9-1 on hard in 2024. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a compiled84-21 match record in the last 7 years on hard.
Alcaraz’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Buenos Aires and Indian Wells.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 11-3 win-loss record in 2024, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Medvedev reached the final after beating Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2 6-3, Sebastian Korda 6-4 5-7 6-3, Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4, Holger Rune 7-5 6-4 and Tommy Paul 1-6 7-63 6-2.
In the semifinal against Paul, Medvedev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-63 6-2).During the match Medvedev scored less points (5) than Paul. In fact, the world no. 2 won 99 points vs Paul’s. That means that Medvedev was more focused during the important points. Medvedev was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.
About the serving games, Medvedev scored 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve 5 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 62% of his first serves in, winning 59% (38/64) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (16/39) on the 2nd serve. Medvedev broke Paul 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
The Russian’s best result of the season was reaching the final in at the Australian Open .
Daniil has an overall 14-2 win-loss record in 2024, 14-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 101 | 118 |
| Pts | 359-260 | 414-357 |
| Total Points | 619 | 771 |
| Winners | 148 | 148 |
| %Winners | 41% | 36% |
Both Alcaraz and Medvedev played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 2 sets, while Daniil Medvedev lost 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Medvedev have played the same amount of sets 12. However, Alcaraz played 17 games less than Medvedev. Alcaraz scored 148 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Medvedev recorded 148 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 2.8 |
| 1st in | 184/280 | 211/362 |
| %1st in | 66% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 148/184 | 148/211 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 57/96 | 77/151 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 51% |
Alcaraz made 10 aces (2 per match). Medvedev fired 14 aces (2.8 per match). Alcaraz won 80% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 25 |
| Converted | 20/39 | 25/55 |
| % Converted | 51% | 45% |
| Conceded | 11 | 32 |
| Saved | 8 | 16 |
| % Saved | 73% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 16 |
Carlos broke his opponents 20 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Spaniard dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded. Daniil broke his opponents 25 times with a 45% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve 16 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||||||
| R2 Arnaldi |
R3 Auger-Aliassime |
R4 Marozsan |
1/4 Zverev |
1/4 Zverev |
1/4 Zverev |
1/2 Sinner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 6-0 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | 1-6 6-3 6-2 | ||||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 101 | |
| pts | 99-69 | 58-38 | 63-44 | 64-38 | 38-64 | 38-64 | 75-71 | 435-388 | |
| Total points | 168 | 96 | 107 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 146 | 823 | |
| Winners | 37 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 33 | 198 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% | 41% | 42% | 66% | 66% | 44% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 43/76 | 32/44 | 31/49 | 31/39 | 49/63 | 49/63 | 47/72 | 282/406 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 73% | 63% | 79% | 78% | 78% | 65% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 37/43 | 25/32 | 26/31 | 27/31 | 25/49 | 25/49 | 33/47 | 198/282 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 78% | 84% | 87% | 51% | 51% | 70% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/33 | 8/12 | 12/18 | 6/8 | 7/14 | 7/14 | 13/25 | 71/124 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 52% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/7 | 3/8 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 20/39 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 57% | 38% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 2/4 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 100% | – | 20% | 20% | 50% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | |
| Medvedev | |||||||||
| R2 Carballes Baena |
R3 Korda |
R4 Dimitrov |
1/4 Rune |
1/2 Paul |
Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | 7-5 6-4 | 1-6 7-63 6-2 | ||||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | |||
| Tot Games | 17 | 31 | 20 | 22 | 28 | 118 | |||
| pts | 57-37 | 110-98 | 62-47 | 86-71 | 99-104 | 414-357 | |||
| Total points | 94 | 208 | 109 | 157 | 203 | 771 | |||
| Winners | 23 | 31 | 26 | 30 | 38 | 148 | |||
| %Winners | 40% | 28% | 42% | 35% | 38% | 36% | |||
| SERVE | |||||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |||
| Double Faults | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | |||
| 1st in | 28/48 | 44/87 | 31/51 | 44/73 | 64/103 | 211/362 | |||
| % 1st in | 58% | 51% | 61% | 60% | 62% | 58% | |||
| 1st pts | 23/28 | 31/44 | 26/31 | 30/44 | 38/64 | 148/211 | |||
| % 1st pts | 82% | 70% | 84% | 68% | 59% | 70% | |||
| 2nd pts | 12/20 | 18/43 | 13/20 | 18/29 | 16/39 | 77/151 | |||
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 42% | 65% | 62% | 41% | 51% | |||
| Breaks | |||||||||
| Won | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 25 | |||
| Converted | 4/7 | 9/22 | 3/6 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 25/55 | |||
| Converted % | 57% | 41% | 50% | 40% | 50% | 45% | |||
| Conceded | 2 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 32 | |||
| Saved | 1/2 | 2/9 | 1/2 | 6/8 | 6/11 | 16 | |||
| Saved % | 50% | 22% | 50% | 75% | 55% | 36% | |||
| Times Broken | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 | |||
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWLWWW
LWLLLWWWLW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Wesley Koolhof/Nikola MekticKoolhof/Nikola Mektic – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (7-62 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (2-3) – H2H and prediction
