Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 9th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.7
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.16
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
This will be the 9th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner fight against each other. The head to head is 4-4 for Alcaraz and Sinner (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Sinner won 7-6(4) 6-1 in the semifinal in Beijing back in 2023.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz – Beijing 03-October-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz reached the semifinal after defeating Matteo Arnaldi 6-75 6-0 6-1, Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-2 6-3, Fabian Marozsan 6-3 6-3 and Alexander Zverev 6-3 6-1.
In the quarter, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Zverev (6-3 6-1). During the match, Alcaraz scored 64 points vs Zverev’s 38. Alcaraz was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was very effective on serve to win 87% (27/31) of his 1st serve and 75% (6/8) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Zverev 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 60% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 7 years having won 79% of his matches (243-66). 8-1 on hard in 2024. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a composed83-21 record in the last 7 years on hard.
The Spaniard’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Buenos Aires.
The Spaniard has an overall 10-3 win-loss record in 2024, 8-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 71-6 | 40-3 | 11-2 | 11-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 20-14 | 2-6 | 7-3 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3 (career-high), the Italian reached the semifinal after beating Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-3 6-0, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 6-4, Ben Shelton 7-64 6-1 and Jiri Lehecka 6-3 6-3.
In the quarter, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Lehecka (6-3 6-3). During the match Sinner scored 69 points vs Lehecka’s 52. Sinner was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Sinner fired 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jannik Sinner was very efficient on serve to win 85% (23/27) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jannik broke Lehecka 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3 and in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 7-5 6-4.
Jannik has a compiled 16-0 win-loss record in 2024, 11-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 77 | 72 |
| Pts | 284-189 | 271-186 |
| Total Points | 473 | 457 |
| Winners | 115 | 108 |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% |
Both Alcaraz and Sinner played 4 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz lost 1 set while Jannik Sinner hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Sinner (9 vs 8). Therefore, Alcaraz played 5 games more than Sinner. Alcaraz scored 115 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Jannik struck 108 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 137/208 | 135/215 |
| %1st in | 66% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 115/137 | 108/135 |
| %1st pts | 84% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 44/71 | 54/80 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 68% |
Alcaraz bagged 10 aces (2.5 per match). Sinner scored 16 aces (4 per match). Alcaraz won 84% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Sinner won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Sinner |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 12 |
| Converted | 17/33 | 12/30 |
| % Converted | 52% | 40% |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 |
| Saved | 6 | 9 |
| % Saved | 86% | 90% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 17 times with a 52% conversion rate. Alcaraz lost his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 12 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve once and he saved 90% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||||
| R2 Arnaldi |
R3 Auger-Aliassime |
R4 Marozsan |
1/4 Zverev |
1/4 Zverev |
1/4 Zverev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 6-0 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-1 | ||||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 77 | |
| pts | 99-69 | 58-38 | 63-44 | 64-38 | 38-64 | 38-64 | 360-317 | |
| Total points | 168 | 96 | 107 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 677 | |
| Winners | 37 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 165 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% | 41% | 42% | 66% | 66% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 43/76 | 32/44 | 31/49 | 31/39 | 49/63 | 49/63 | 235/334 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 73% | 63% | 79% | 78% | 78% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 37/43 | 25/32 | 26/31 | 27/31 | 25/49 | 25/49 | 165/235 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 78% | 84% | 87% | 51% | 51% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/33 | 8/12 | 12/18 | 6/8 | 7/14 | 7/14 | 58/99 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/7 | 3/8 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 17/33 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 57% | 38% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 100% | – | 20% | 20% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | |
| Sinner | ||||||||
| R2 Kokkinakis |
R3 Struff |
R4 Shelton |
1/4 Lehecka |
1/4 Lehecka |
1/4 Lehecka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-3 6-4 | 7-64 6-1 | 6-3 6-3 | ||||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 72 | |
| pts | 59-32 | 63-47 | 80-55 | 69-52 | 52-69 | 52-69 | 375-324 | |
| Total points | 91 | 110 | 135 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 699 | |
| Winners | 22 | 29 | 34 | 23 | 32 | 32 | 172 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 46% | 43% | 33% | 62% | 62% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 26 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 29/47 | 35/52 | 44/65 | 27/51 | 47/70 | 47/70 | 229/355 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 67% | 68% | 53% | 67% | 67% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 22/29 | 29/35 | 34/44 | 23/27 | 32/47 | 32/47 | 172/229 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 83% | 77% | 85% | 68% | 68% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/18 | 13/17 | 13/21 | 15/24 | 7/23 | 7/23 | 68/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 72% | 76% | 62% | 63% | 30% | 30% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 2/4 | 3/9 | 3/11 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 12/32 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 50% | 33% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 32 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 3/3 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 8/11 | 8/11 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 73% | 73% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWLLWLWWW
WWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori (4-6 7-67 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Wesley Koolhof/Nikola MekticKoolhof/Nikola Mektic – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (4-4) – H2H and prediction
