Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro will square off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.13
Emma Navarro -> 6
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Emma Navarro
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Navarro (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Navarro won in the 4th round in Indian Wells.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16-5 | 14-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Belarussian reached the 4th round after beating Peyton Stearns 6-72 6-2 7-66 and Emma Raducanu 6-3 7-5.
In the 3rd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Raducanu (6-3 7-5). During the match, Sabalenka scored 72 points vs Raducanu’s 61. The Belarussian was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 8 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Aryna Sabalenka was pretty effective on serve to win 74% (35/47) of her 1st serve and 54% (15/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Aryna broke Raducanu 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (331-156). 13-2 on hard in 2024. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate202-87 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title at the Australian Open where she beat Qinwen Zheng in the final 6-3 6-2.
Aryna has a composed 13-2 win-loss record in 2024, 13-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Emma Navarro
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23-8 | 21-7 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-24 | 17-9 | 37-11 | 3-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-18 | 8-8 | 23-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-13 | 6-6 | 13-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 23 (career-high), Navarro reached the 4th round after beating Aryna Sabalenka , Lesya Tsurenko 4-6 7-5 7-5 and Elina Svitolina 6-1 4-6 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Emma defeated Svitolina (6-1 4-6 6-3). During the match Navarro scored 92 points vs Svitolina’s 79. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Navarro couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Emma Navarro lost the serve 4 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Navarro put 71% of her first serves in, winning 58% (34/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the 2nd serve. Emma broke Svitolina 7 times after converting 54% of her break points (7/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Hobart where she beat Elise Mertens in the final 6-1 4-6 7-5.
Emma has a compiled 17-5 win-loss record in 2024, 17-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 55 | 60 |
| Pts | 192-167 | 198-181 |
| Total Points | 359 | 379 |
| Winners | 86 | 78 |
| %Winners | 45% | 39% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Navarro competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set, while Emma Navarro lost 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Navarro (5 vs 7). Therefore, Sabalenka played 5 games less than Navarro. The Belarussian scored 86 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Navarro managed to score 78 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 18 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 0 |
| 1st in | 114/184 | 126/190 |
| %1st in | 62% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 86/114 | 78/126 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 62% |
| 2nd pts | 33/70 | 25/64 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 39% |
Sabalenka bagged 18 aces (9 per match). Navarro didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Sabalenka won 75% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Navarro won 62% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 39% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 16 |
| Converted | 9/19 | 16/28 |
| % Converted | 47% | 57% |
| Conceded | 20 | 21 |
| Saved | 15 | 9 |
| % Saved | 75% | 43% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 12 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 9 times with a 47% conversion rate. Sabalenka conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Emma broke her opponents 16 times with a 57% conversion rate. Navarro conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 43% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Stearns |
R3 Raducanu |
R4 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-72 6-2 7-66 | 6-3 7-5 | |||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 21 | 0 | 55 | |
| pts | 120-106 | 72-61 | – | 192-167 | |
| Total points | 226 | 133 | 0 | 359 | |
| Winners | 51 | 35 | 86 | ||
| %Winners | 43% | 49% | 0% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 8 | 0 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 2 | 11 | ||
| 1st in | 67/109 | 47/75 | / | 114/184 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 63% | 0% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 51/67 | 35/47 | / | 86/114 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 74% | 0% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/42 | 15/28 | / | 33/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 54% | 0% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 9 | ||
| Converted | 6/12 | 3/7 | / | 9/19 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 43% | 0% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | 20 | ||
| Saved | 6/10 | 9/10 | 0/ | 15 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 90% | – | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Navarro | |||||
| R2 Tsurenko |
R3 Svitolina |
R4 Sabalenka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-5 7-5 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | |||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 26 | 0 | 60 | |
| pts | 106-102 | 92-79 | – | 198-181 | |
| Total points | 208 | 171 | 0 | 379 | |
| Winners | 44 | 34 | 78 | ||
| %Winners | 42% | 37% | 0% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 1 | 9 | ||
| 1st in | 67/107 | 59/83 | / | 126/190 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 71% | 0% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 44/67 | 34/59 | / | 78/126 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 58% | 0% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/40 | 14/24 | / | 25/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 28% | 58% | 0% | 39% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 9 | 7 | 16 | ||
| Converted | 9/15 | 7/13 | / | 16/28 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 54% | 0% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 15 | 6 | 21 | ||
| Saved | 7/15 | 2/6 | 0/ | 9 | |
| Saved % | 47% | 33% | – | 27% | |
| Times Broken | 8 | 4 | 12 | ||
Head 2 Head
WLWLWLWWLW
WWLWLWWLWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Angelique KerberKerber (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (7-5 0-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Yue YuanYuan – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Diane ParryParry – Maria SakkariSakkari () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka () – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elise MertensMertens – Cori GauffGauff () – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Yue YuanYuan – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Cori GauffGauff (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Diane ParryParry – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Caroline WozniackiWozniacki (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (4-0) – H2H and prediction
