Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng will clash against each other in the final of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.23
Qinwen Zheng -> 4.35
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 6-1 6-4 in the quarter in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng – U.S. Open 06-September-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-12 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Sabalenka reached the final after beating Ella Seidel 6-0 6-1, Brenda Fruhvirtova 6-3 6-2, Lesya Tsurenko 6-0 6-0, Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-2, Barbora Krejcikova 6-2 6-3 and Cori Gauff 7-62 6-4.
In the semifinal, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Gauff (7-62 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 82 points vs Gauff’s 68. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka bagged 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 76% of her first serves in, winning 70% (35/50) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (8/16) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Gauff 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 61% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 68% of her matches (328-155). 10-1 on hard in 2024. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a compiled199-86 win-loss record in the last 9 years on hard.
Aryna’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Brisbane.
Sabalenka has a composed 10-1 win-loss record in 2024, 10-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Qinwen Zheng
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45-16 | 27-10 | 17-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-19 | 23-11 | 11-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-19 | 27-12 | 10-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-11 | 7-1 | 16-6 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 38-8 | 3-3 | 26-3 | 9-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Zheng got to the final after beating Ashlyn Krueger 3-6 6-2 6-3, Katie Boulter 6-3 6-3, Yafan Wang 6-4 2-6 7-68, Oceane Dodin 6-0 6-3, Anna Kalinskaya 6-74 6-3 6-1 and Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal, Zheng had a good straight sets win against Yastremska (6-4 6-4). During the match Zheng scored 72 points vs Yastremska’s 58. Qinwen was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Zheng fired 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Qinwen Zheng lost the serve twice and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Zheng put 55% of her first serves in, winning 76% (28/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (15/30) on the 2nd serve. The Chinese broke Yastremska 4 times after converting 36% of her break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Qinwen has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Zheng’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in at the Australian Open .
Zheng has a compiled 8-1 win-loss record in 2024, 8-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022 and 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 15 |
| Tot Games | 99 | 139 |
| Pts | 368-232 | 495-413 |
| Total Points | 600 | 908 |
| Winners | 144 | 194 |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% |
Both Sabalenka and Zheng played 6 matches. At the moment, Qinwen Zheng lost 3 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 3 set(s) less than Zheng (12 vs 15). Therefore, Sabalenka played 40 games less than Zheng. The Belarussian scored 144 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Zheng bagged 194 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 24 | 48 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 8 |
| 1st in | 187/287 | 247/463 |
| %1st in | 65% | 53% |
| 1st pts | 144/187 | 194/247 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 55/100 | 97/216 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 45% |
Sabalenka scored 24 aces (4 per match). Zheng bagged 48 aces (8 per match). Sabalenka won 77% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Zheng won 79% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 28 | 28 |
| Converted | 28/50 | 28/55 |
| % Converted | 56% | 51% |
| Conceded | 12 | 37 |
| Saved | 6 | 23 |
| % Saved | 50% | 62% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 14 |
Aryna broke her opponents 28 times with a 56% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve 6 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Qinwen broke her opponents 28 times with a 51% conversion rate. Qinwen conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||||
| R1 Seidel |
R2 Fruhvirtova |
R3 Tsurenko |
R4 Anisimova |
1/4 Krejcikova |
1/2 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-1 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 6-0 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | 7-62 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 23 | 99 | |
| pts | 56-26 | 62-41 | 54-24 | 59-39 | 55-34 | 82-68 | 368-232 | |
| Total points | 82 | 103 | 78 | 98 | 89 | 150 | 600 | |
| Winners | 24 | 21 | 19 | 27 | 18 | 35 | 144 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 34% | 35% | 46% | 33% | 43% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 6 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 30/44 | 26/48 | 25/39 | 31/50 | 25/40 | 50/66 | 187/287 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 54% | 64% | 62% | 63% | 76% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 21/26 | 19/25 | 27/31 | 18/25 | 35/50 | 144/187 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 81% | 76% | 87% | 72% | 70% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/14 | 13/22 | 8/14 | 11/19 | 8/15 | 8/16 | 55/100 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 59% | 57% | 58% | 53% | 50% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 28 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/6 | 6/10 | 3/6 | 6/9 | 4/10 | 28/50 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 67% | 60% | 50% | 67% | 40% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 2/4 | 1/4 | 6 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 25% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| Zheng | ||||||||
| R1 Krueger |
R2 Boulter |
R3 Wang |
R4 Dodin |
1/4 Kalinskaya |
1/2 Yastremska |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 2-6 7-68 | 6-0 6-3 | 6-74 6-3 6-1 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 18 | 31 | 15 | 29 | 20 | 139 | |
| pts | 100-90 | 70-55 | 100-99 | 53-34 | 100-77 | 72-58 | 495-413 | |
| Total points | 190 | 125 | 199 | 87 | 177 | 130 | 908 | |
| Winners | 41 | 30 | 40 | 19 | 36 | 28 | 194 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 43% | 40% | 36% | 36% | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 12 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 48 | |
| Double Faults | 11 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 35 | |
| 1st in | 54/101 | 39/71 | 50/93 | 22/50 | 45/81 | 37/67 | 247/463 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 55% | 54% | 44% | 56% | 55% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 41/54 | 30/39 | 40/50 | 19/22 | 36/45 | 28/37 | 194/247 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 77% | 80% | 86% | 80% | 76% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/47 | 11/32 | 20/43 | 13/28 | 19/36 | 15/30 | 97/216 | |
| % 2nd pts | 40% | 34% | 47% | 46% | 53% | 50% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 28 | |
| Converted | 5/15 | 5/6 | 3/7 | 5/7 | 6/9 | 4/11 | 28/55 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 83% | 43% | 71% | 67% | 36% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 37 | |
| Saved | 6/9 | 7/9 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 8/10 | 23 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 78% | 20% | 50% | 0% | 80% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
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