Fabio Fognini and Brandon Nakashima will fight against each other in the quarter of the Bergamo Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 4:00 pm on BERGAMO ITALCEMENTI. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Brandon Nakashima who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Brandon Nakashima is the pick to win this match.
Brandon Nakashima -> 1.444
Fabio Fognini -> 2.67
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Prediction and head to head Fabio Fognini vs. Brandon Nakashima
This will be the 3rd time that Fabio Fognini and Brandon Nakashima fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Nakashima (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they fought against each other, Nakashima won 7-6(7) 7-6(6) in the 2nd round in Sydney back in 2022.
Highlights Brandon Nakashima vs Fabio Fognini – Sydney 11-January-2022
Fabio Fognini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-28 | 7-10 | 21-12 | 2-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-23 | 0-8 | 23-12 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 24-26 | 10-9 | 12-12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 22-24 | 12-12 | 7-8 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 6-10 | 4-5 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 134, Fabio got to the quarter after beating Matteo Martineau 6-3 6-4 and Hugo Grenier 6-72 6-2 7-65.
In the 2nd round against Grenier, Fognini recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-72 6-2 7-65). During the match, Fognini scored 121 points vs Grenier’s 111. Fognini was quite aggressive to blast 55 winners.
Talking about the service games, Fognini managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Fabio Fognini was quite effective on serve to win 82% (55/67) of his 1st serve and 55% (27/49) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Grenier twice after converting 18% of his break points (2/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Fognini has lost 1 set in this competition to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Fognini has positive record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (281-225). 2-1 on indoor hard courts in 2023. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Fognini has an overall 26-32 match record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
The Italian’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Genova Challenger.
Fognini has an aggregate 19-21 win-loss record in 2023, 2-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Bergamo Challenger
Fabio has never competed in this tournament before.
Brandon Nakashima
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 61-32 | 24-12 | 13-7 | 15-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 21-26 | 9-15 | 3-4 | 8-3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-26 | 17-13 | 5-5 | 9-4 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-25 | 17-10 | 4-7 | 20-5 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-14 | 19-6 | 4-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 151, Brandon reached the quarter after defeating Mikhail Kukushkin 6-1 6-4 and Liam Broady 6-4 6-0.
In the 2nd round, Brandon had a good straight sets win against Broady (6-4 6-0). During the match Nakashima scored 62 points vs Broady’s 41. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Nakashima made 8 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Brandon Nakashima conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Nakashima put 74% of his first serves in, winning 83% (29/35) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Broady 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Brandon hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points he played.
Nakashima’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Lyon.
Nakashima has an overall 16-24 win-loss record in 2023, 3-1 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Fognini | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 53 | 33 |
| Pts | 180-163 | 124-86 |
| Total Points | 343 | 210 |
| Winners | 83 | 57 |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% |
Both Fognini and Nakashima played 2 matches. At the moment, Fabio Fognini conceded 1 set while Brandon Nakashima hasn’t lost a set so far. Fognini has played 1 set more than Nakashima (5 vs 4). Therefore, Fognini played 20 games more than Nakashima. Fabio scored 83 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Nakashima recorded 57 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Fognini | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 21 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 10.5 |
| 1st in | 101/176 | 71/101 |
| %1st in | 57% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 83/101 | 57/71 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 39/75 | 17/30 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 57% |
Fognini struck 9 aces (4.5 per match). Nakashima managed to score 21 aces (10.5 per match). Fognini won 82% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Nakashima won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Fognini | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 7 |
| Converted | 5/15 | 7/16 |
| % Converted | 33% | 44% |
| Conceded | 11 | 7 |
| Saved | 10 | 7 |
| % Saved | 91% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Fabio broke his opponents 5 times with a 33% conversion rate. Fognini dropped his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded. Nakashima broke his opponents 7 times with a 44% conversion rate. The American was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 7 break points.
| Fognini | ||||
| R1 Martineau |
R2 Grenier |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-72 6-2 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 34 | 53 | |
| pts | 59-52 | 121-111 | 180-163 | |
| Total points | 111 | 232 | 343 | |
| Winners | 28 | 55 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 45% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 34/60 | 67/116 | 101/176 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 58% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 28/34 | 55/67 | 83/101 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/26 | 27/49 | 39/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 55% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 2/11 | 5/15 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 18% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 6/6 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 100% | 90% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nakashima | ||||
| R1 Kukushkin |
R2 Broady |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 16 | 33 | |
| pts | 62-45 | 62-41 | 124-86 | |
| Total points | 107 | 103 | 210 | |
| Winners | 28 | 29 | 57 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 47% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 13 | 8 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 36/54 | 35/47 | 71/101 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 74% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 28/36 | 29/35 | 57/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 83% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/18 | 6/12 | 17/30 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 50% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 4/8 | 7/16 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 2/2 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLLWWLLL
LLLWLLLWLW 
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- Jack DraperDraper – Andrea VavassoriVavassori (0-1) – H2H and prediction
