Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will face off in the quarter of the China Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:30 pm on Diamond. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.59
Elena Rybakina -> 2.36
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 6th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina clash against each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Rybakina won 7-6(11) 6-4 in the final in Indian Wells back in March 2023.
Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka – Indian Wells 19-March-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-13 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the quarter after beating Sofia Kenin 6-1 6-2, Katie Boulter 7-5 7-62 and Jasmine Paolini 6-4 7-64.
In the 3rd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Paolini (6-4 7-64). During the match, Sabalenka scored 72 points vs Paolini’s 63. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka made 16 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 61% of her first serves in, winning 76% (32/42) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (10/27) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Paolini 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 68% of her matches (316-151). 33-6 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate187-82 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4 and in Madrid where she defeated Iga Swiatek in the final 6-3 3-6 6-3.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 53-11 win-loss record in 2023, 33-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 1-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Kazakhstani reached the quarter after defeating Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2, Tatjana Maria 7-5 6-0 and Mirra Andreeva 2-6 6-4 6-1.
In the 3rd round against Andreeva, Elena recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 6-1). During the match Rybakina scored 84 points vs Andreeva’s 73. Elena was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about serving, Rybakina scored 10 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve 3 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 56% of her first serves in, winning 73% (36/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (18/39) on the 2nd serve. The Kazakhstani broke Andreeva 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rybakina has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-6(11) 6-4 and in Rome where she beat Anhelina Kalinina in the final 6-4 1-0 ret..
Elena has a composed 45-12 win-loss record in 2023, 29-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 63 | 58 |
| Pts | 240-186 | 201-137 |
| Total Points | 426 | 338 |
| Winners | 95 | 78 |
| %Winners | 40% | 39% |
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina played 3 matches. At the moment, Elena Rybakina surrendered 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Rybakina (6 vs 7). However, it’s interesting to notice that Sabalenka played 5 games more than Rybakina. Aryna scored 95 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Elena fired 78 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 29 | 22 |
| Avg per match | 9.7 | 7.3 |
| 1st in | 126/208 | 97/178 |
| %1st in | 61% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 95/126 | 78/97 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 43/82 | 43/81 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 53% |
Sabalenka managed to score 29 aces (9.7 per match). Rybakina blasted 22 aces (7.3 per match). Sabalenka won 75% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 80% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 13 |
| Converted | 11/27 | 13/19 |
| % Converted | 41% | 68% |
| Conceded | 20 | 10 |
| Saved | 15 | 6 |
| % Saved | 75% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 11 times with a 41% conversion rate. The Belarussian lost her serve 5 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Rybakina broke her opponents 13 times with a 68% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R1 Kenin |
R2 Boulter |
R3 Paolini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 7-62 | 6-4 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 25 | 23 | 63 | |
| pts | 61-28 | 107-95 | 72-63 | 240-186 | |
| Total points | 89 | 202 | 135 | 426 | |
| Winners | 22 | 41 | 32 | 95 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 38% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 8 | 16 | 29 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 7 | 3 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 23/39 | 61/100 | 42/69 | 126/208 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 61% | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 22/23 | 41/61 | 32/42 | 95/126 | |
| % 1st pts | 96% | 67% | 76% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/16 | 22/39 | 10/27 | 43/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 56% | 37% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/12 | 4/6 | 11/27 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 25% | 67% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 12 | 8 | 20 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 10/12 | 5/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | – | 83% | 63% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Rybakina | |||||
| R1 Zheng |
R2 Maria |
R3 Andreeva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 6-0 | 2-6 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 18 | 25 | 58 | |
| pts | 54-28 | 63-36 | 84-73 | 201-137 | |
| Total points | 82 | 99 | 157 | 338 | |
| Winners | 22 | 20 | 36 | 78 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 32% | 43% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 9 | 10 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 25/44 | 23/46 | 49/88 | 97/178 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 50% | 56% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 22/25 | 20/23 | 36/49 | 78/97 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 87% | 73% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/19 | 14/23 | 18/39 | 43/81 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 61% | 46% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/7 | 4/5 | 13/19 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 71% | 80% | 68% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/1 | 6/9 | 6 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 67% | 22% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWLW
WLLWLLWWWW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Anhelina KalininaKalinina (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (7-65 6-2) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Xinyu WangWang (6-4 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Magda LinetteLinette (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-4 6-74 7-5) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (2-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (6-4 7-6(4)) – See score progression
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Xinyu WangWang (6-4 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Cori GauffGauff (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline GarciaGarcia – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-2) – H2H and prediction
