Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev will face off in the final of the U.S. Open for the 15th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 4 sets.
As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.41
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.91
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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev
This will be the 15th time that Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev clash against each other. The head to head is 9-5 for Djokovic (see full H2H stats), 4-3 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Medvedev won 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal in Dubai back in March 2023.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Novak Djokovic – Dubai 03-March-2023
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-9 | 15-5 | 16-3 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-5 | 26-1 | 11-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Serbian got to the final after beating Alexandre Muller 6-0 6-2 6-3, Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-4 6-1 6-1, Laslo Djere 4-6 4-6 6-1 6-1 6-3, Borna Gojo 6-2 7-5 6-4, Taylor Fritz 6-1 6-4 6-4 and Ben Shelton 6-3 6-2 7-64.
In the semifinal, The Serbian had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-3 6-2 7-64). During the match, Djokovic scored 112 points vs Shelton’s 89. Novak was extremely aggressive to blast 56 winners.
Talking about the service games, Djokovic fired 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Novak Djokovic lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Djokovic put 68% of his first serves in, winning 84% (56/67) of the points behind his 1st serve and 34% (11/32) on the 2nd serve. The Serbian broke Shelton 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Djokovic has dropped 2 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.
Djokovic has an extraordinary record in the last 10 years having won 87% of his matches (532-79). 26-1 on hard in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Djokovic has an aggregate 251-33 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Adelaide where he overcame Sebastian Korda in the final 6-7(8) 7-6(3) 6-4 and at the Australian Open where he overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(5) and at the French Open where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(1) 6-3 7-5 and in Cincinnati where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4).
The Serbian has an overall 44-5 win-loss record in 2023, 26-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46-20 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-4 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Daniil got to the final after beating Attila Balazs 6-1 6-1 6-0, Christopher O Connell 6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2, Sebastian Baez 6-2 6-2 7-66, Alex De Minaur 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2, Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-3 6-4 and Carlos Alcaraz 7-63 6-1 3-6 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Alcaraz (7-63 6-1 3-6 6-3). During the match Medvedev scored 141 points vs Alcaraz’s 121. The Russian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 68 winners.
About the serving games, Medvedev scored 9 aces and he was not very consistent on his 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 64% of his first serves in, winning 82% (68/83) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (23/46) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Alcaraz 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-7 6-2 6-2 and in Doha where he beat Andy Murray in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Dubai where he defeated Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-2 and in Miami where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-5 6-3 and in Rome where he beat Holger Rune in the final 7-5 7-5.
The Russian has an aggregate 55-11 win-loss record in 2023, 33-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Djokovic | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 20 | 21 |
| Tot Games | 177 | 186 |
| Pts | 640-484 | 684-539 |
| Total Points | 1124 | 1223 |
| Winners | 263 | 295 |
| %Winners | 41% | 43% |
Both Djokovic and Medvedev played 6 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Novak Djokovic dropped 2 sets, while Daniil Medvedev dropped 3 sets. Djokovic has played 1 set(s) less than Medvedev (20 vs 21). Therefore, Djokovic played 9 games less than Medvedev. The Serbian scored 263 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Daniil managed to score 295 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Djokovic | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 47 | 60 |
| Avg per match | 7.8 | 10 |
| 1st in | 332/528 | 374/616 |
| %1st in | 63% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 263/332 | 295/374 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 107/196 | 106/242 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 44% |
Djokovic bagged 47 aces (7.8 per match). Medvedev blasted 60 aces (10 per match). Djokovic won 79% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 44% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Djokovic | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 37 | 39 |
| Converted | 37/74 | 39/79 |
| % Converted | 50% | 49% |
| Conceded | 37 | 45 |
| Saved | 28 | 33 |
| % Saved | 76% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 12 |
Novak broke his opponents 37 times with a 50% conversion rate. Novak surrendered his serve 9 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. The Russian broke his opponents 39 times with a 49% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.
| Djokovic | ||||||||
| R1 Muller |
R2 Zapata Miralles |
R3 Djere |
R4 Gojo |
1/4 Fritz |
1/2 Shelton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-2 6-3 | 6-4 6-1 6-1 | 4-6 4-6 6-1 6-1 6-3 | 6-2 7-5 6-4 | 6-1 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 20 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 24 | 43 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 177 | |
| pts | 78-50 | 93-59 | 147-123 | 108-82 | 102-81 | 112-89 | 640-484 | |
| Total points | 128 | 152 | 270 | 190 | 183 | 201 | 1124 | |
| Winners | 27 | 32 | 64 | 45 | 39 | 56 | 263 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 38% | 50% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 47 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | |
| 1st in | 32/60 | 42/72 | 83/127 | 51/76 | 57/94 | 67/99 | 332/528 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 58% | 65% | 67% | 61% | 68% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 27/32 | 32/42 | 64/83 | 45/51 | 39/57 | 56/67 | 263/332 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 76% | 77% | 88% | 68% | 84% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/28 | 22/30 | 24/44 | 13/25 | 21/37 | 11/32 | 107/196 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 73% | 55% | 52% | 57% | 34% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 37 | |
| Converted | 8/13 | 6/11 | 7/14 | 5/13 | 6/9 | 5/14 | 37/74 | |
| Converted % | 62% | 55% | 50% | 38% | 67% | 36% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 37 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 6/6 | 8/11 | 0/1 | 10/12 | 4/6 | 28 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 73% | 0% | 83% | 67% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Medvedev | ||||||||
| R1 Balazs |
R2 O |
R3 Baez |
R4 De Minaur |
1/4 Rublev |
1/2 Alcaraz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 6-0 | 6-2 6-2 6-76 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 7-66 | 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 6-4 | 7-63 6-1 3-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 37 | 29 | 33 | 29 | 38 | 186 | |
| pts | 81-36 | 136-105 | 115-91 | 108-91 | 103-95 | 141-121 | 684-539 | |
| Total points | 117 | 241 | 206 | 199 | 198 | 262 | 1223 | |
| Winners | 31 | 48 | 53 | 54 | 41 | 68 | 295 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 35% | 46% | 50% | 40% | 48% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 60 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 45 | |
| 1st in | 36/54 | 59/109 | 74/120 | 67/104 | 55/100 | 83/129 | 374/616 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 54% | 62% | 64% | 55% | 64% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 31/36 | 48/59 | 53/74 | 54/67 | 41/55 | 68/83 | 295/374 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 81% | 72% | 81% | 75% | 82% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 27/50 | 19/46 | 15/37 | 13/45 | 23/46 | 106/242 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 41% | 41% | 29% | 50% | 44% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 39 | |
| Converted | 8/14 | 8/20 | 6/9 | 5/10 | 9/19 | 3/7 | 39/79 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 40% | 67% | 50% | 47% | 43% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 45 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 3/5 | 10/12 | 4/6 | 8/13 | 8/9 | 33 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 83% | 67% | 62% | 89% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWLWW
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