Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko will play each other in the 4th round of the U.S. Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 10:00 pm on ARTHUR ASHE STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.071
Jelena Ostapenko -> 8.4
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Jelena Ostapenko
This will be the 4th time that Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Ostapenko won 4-6 6-1 7-6(4) in the 2nd round in Dubai back in 2022.
Highlights Jelena Ostapenko vs Iga Swiatek – Dubai 16-February-2022
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Swiatek got to the 4th round after defeating Rebecca Peterson 6-0 6-1, Daria Saville 6-3 6-4 and Kaja Juvan 6-0 6-1.
In the 3rd round, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Juvan (6-0 6-1). During the match, Swiatek scored 50 points vs Juvan’s 15. Iga was extremely aggressive to blast 16 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek wasn’t able to score even 1 ace and she committed only 1 double fault. Iga Swiatek was extremely efficient on serve to win 89% (16/18) of her 1st serve and 80% (12/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Swiatek broke Juvan 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Pole hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 66% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 81% of her matches (273-65). 30-6 on hard in 2023. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a composed121-35 record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Doha where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 6-0 and in Stuttgart where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 6-4 and at the French Open where she beat Karolina Muchova in the final 6-2 5-7 6-4 and in Warsaw where she defeated Laura Siegemund in the final 6-0 6-1.
Swiatek has a composed 56-9 win-loss record in 2023, 30-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Jelena Ostapenko
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 21, Ostapenko got to the 4th round after defeating Jasmine Paolini 6-2 4-6 6-1, Elina Avanesyan 6-3 5-7 7-5 and Bernarda Pera 4-6 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round against Pera, Ostapenko recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-3). During the match Ostapenko scored 86 points vs Pera’s 82. Jelena was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Ostapenko made 3 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve 5 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 53% of her first serves in, winning 76% (35/46) of the points behind her 1st serve and 27% (11/41) on the 2nd serve. Jelena broke Pera 7 times after converting 70% of her break points (7/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ostapenko has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Birmingham where she defeated Barbora Krejcikova in the final 7-6(8) 6-4.
Ostapenko has an overall 31-16 win-loss record in 2023, 16-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2017, 2018 and 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 45 | 86 |
| Pts | 165-86 | 293-259 |
| Total Points | 251 | 552 |
| Winners | 62 | 118 |
| %Winners | 38% | 40% |
Both Swiatek and Ostapenko played 3 matches. At the moment, Jelena Ostapenko conceded 3 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t lost a set so far. Swiatek has played 3 set(s) less than Ostapenko (6 vs 9). Therefore, Swiatek played 41 games less than Ostapenko. Swiatek scored 62 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Jelena blasted 118 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4.7 |
| 1st in | 84/131 | 157/296 |
| %1st in | 64% | 53% |
| 1st pts | 62/84 | 118/157 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 30/47 | 48/139 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 35% |
Swiatek bagged 6 aces (2 per match). Ostapenko blasted 14 aces (4.7 per match). Swiatek won 74% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 75% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 35% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 21 |
| Converted | 15/18 | 21/31 |
| % Converted | 83% | 68% |
| Conceded | 6 | 35 |
| Saved | 3 | 21 |
| % Saved | 50% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 14 |
Iga broke her opponents 15 times with a 83% conversion rate. Iga conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Ostapenko broke her opponents 21 times with a 68% conversion rate. The Latvian conceded her serve 14 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||
| R1 Peterson |
R2 Gavrilova |
R3 Juvan |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-1 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-0 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 19 | 13 | 45 | |
| pts | 52-22 | 63-49 | 50-15 | 165-86 | |
| Total points | 74 | 112 | 65 | 251 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | 16 | 62 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 37% | 32% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 30/42 | 36/56 | 18/33 | 84/131 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 64% | 55% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 23/36 | 16/18 | 62/84 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 64% | 89% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/12 | 11/20 | 12/15 | 30/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 55% | 80% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 5/6 | 5/6 | 15/18 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 0% | – | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ostapenko | |||||
| R1 Paolini |
R2 Avanesyan |
R3 Pera |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 4-6 6-1 | 6-3 5-7 7-5 | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 33 | 28 | 86 | |
| pts | 92-76 | 115-101 | 86-82 | 293-259 | |
| Total points | 168 | 216 | 168 | 552 | |
| Winners | 32 | 51 | 35 | 118 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 44% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 11 | 11 | 7 | 29 | |
| 1st in | 42/93 | 69/116 | 46/87 | 157/296 | |
| % 1st in | 45% | 59% | 53% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 32/42 | 51/69 | 35/46 | 118/157 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 74% | 76% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/51 | 15/47 | 11/41 | 48/139 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 32% | 27% | 35% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 8/11 | 7/10 | 21/31 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 73% | 70% | 68% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 16 | 11 | 35 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 10/16 | 6/11 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 63% | 55% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWW
L Tennis Scores – U.S. Open
- Hyeon ChungChung – Joao SousaSousa (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- John IsnerIsner – Marin CilicCilic (7-60 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kevin AndersonAnderson – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (7-63 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Martin Del PotroMartin Del Potro – Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Milos RaonicRaonic – Jeremy ChardyChardy (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Borna CoricCoric – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-62 4-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Fernando VerdascoVerdasco (6-0 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Katie BoulterBoulter – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Madison KeysKeys (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Ons JabeurJabeur – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Caroline WozniackiWozniacki – Cori GauffGauff (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Belinda BencicBencic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Xin Yu WangYu Wang (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (2-4) – H2H and prediction
