Jan Choinski and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will square off in the final of the Meerbusch Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on VOBA MEERBUSCH COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jan Choinski who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jan Choinski is the pick to win this match.
Jan Choinski -> 1.86
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.89
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Prediction and head to head Jan Choinski vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
This will be the 2nd time that Jan Choinski and Camilo Ugo Carabelli square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Choinski (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Choinski won 6-0 6-0 in the final in M15 Santo Domingo back in 2019.
Jan Choinski
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-33 | 4-4 | 24-16 | 5-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-35 | 1-4 | 30-19 | 5-5 | 2-5 | 3-2 |
| 2022 | 46-21 | 5-5 | 35-14 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 148 (career-high), the German reached the final after beating Nicola Kuhn 7-64 6-4, Louis Wessels 6-2 6-70 7-65, Dimitar Kuzmanov 2-6 7-5 6-3 and Titouan Droguet 6-1 6-4.
In the semifinal, Choinski had a good straight sets win against Droguet (6-1 6-4). During the match, Choinski scored 61 points vs Droguet’s 40. Choinski was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Choinski struck 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jan Choinski was extremely effective on serve to win 82% (32/39) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jan broke Droguet 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The German has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Choinski has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (328-207). 24-13 on clay in 2023. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Choinski has a compiled 179-99 match record in the last years on clay.
The German’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in M25 Nussloch,the Cherbourg Challenger,the Mexico City Challenger,the San Luis Potosi Challenger and the Meerbusch Challenger.
Jan has an overall 35-25 win-loss record in 2023, 24-13 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Meerbusch Challenger
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-29 | 2-4 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 19-12 | 0-1 | 18-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 171, Camilo got to the final after defeating Tibo Colson 6-2 6-2, Ergi Kirkin 6-1 6-4, Benjamin Hassan 7-62 1-6 6-2 and Manuel Guinard 7-65 6-0.
In the semifinal, Camilo had a good straight sets win against Guinard (7-65 6-0). During the match Ugo scored 75 points vs Guinard’s 52. The Argentine was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
About the serving games, Ugo scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Camilo Ugo Carabelli was very effective on serve to win 74% (31/42) of his 1st serve and 56% (14/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Ugo broke Guinard 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Argentine’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Piracicaba Challenger and the Meerbusch Challenger.
The Argentine has an aggregate 25-18 win-loss record in 2023, 25-17 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Choinski | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 103 | 80 |
| Pts | 327-291 | 288-234 |
| Total Points | 618 | 522 |
| Winners | 135 | 124 |
| %Winners | 41% | 43% |
Both Choinski and Ugo played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jan Choinski conceded 2 sets, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost 1 set. Choinski has played 1 set more than Ugo (10 vs 9). Therefore, Choinski played 23 games more than Ugo. Jan scored 135 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Ugo recorded 124 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Choinski | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 1.8 |
| 1st in | 191/310 | 186/264 |
| %1st in | 62% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 135/191 | 124/186 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 68/119 | 44/78 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 56% |
Choinski fired 8 aces (2 per match). Ugo struck 7 aces (1.8 per match). Choinski won 71% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Ugo won 67% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Choinski | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 16 |
| Converted | 15/30 | 16/29 |
| % Converted | 50% | 55% |
| Conceded | 24 | 25 |
| Saved | 15 | 19 |
| % Saved | 63% | 76% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 6 |
The German broke his opponents 15 times with a 50% conversion rate. The German lost his serve 9 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Ugo broke his opponents 16 times with a 55% conversion rate. Ugo conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.
| Choinski | ||||||
| R1 Kuhn |
R2 Wessels |
1/4 Kuzmanov |
1/2 Droguet |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-4 | 6-2 6-70 7-65 | 2-6 7-5 6-3 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 34 | 29 | 17 | 103 | |
| pts | 79-68 | 107-103 | 80-80 | 61-40 | 327-291 | |
| Total points | 147 | 210 | 160 | 101 | 618 | |
| Winners | 27 | 40 | 36 | 32 | 135 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 37% | 45% | 52% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 44/66 | 55/102 | 53/88 | 39/54 | 191/310 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 54% | 60% | 72% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 27/44 | 40/55 | 36/53 | 32/39 | 135/191 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 73% | 68% | 82% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/22 | 26/47 | 23/35 | 8/15 | 68/119 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 55% | 66% | 53% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/11 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 15/30 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 36% | 50% | 75% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 7/9 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 78% | 50% | 100% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| Ugo | ||||||
| R1 Colson |
R2 Kirkin |
1/4 Hassan |
1/2 Guinard |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 | 7-62 1-6 6-2 | 7-65 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 17 | 28 | 19 | 80 | |
| pts | 62-42 | 60-41 | 91-99 | 75-52 | 288-234 | |
| Total points | 104 | 101 | 190 | 127 | 522 | |
| Winners | 26 | 31 | 36 | 31 | 124 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 52% | 40% | 41% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 38/49 | 47/59 | 59/89 | 42/67 | 186/264 | |
| % 1st in | 78% | 80% | 66% | 63% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 26/38 | 31/47 | 36/59 | 31/42 | 124/186 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 66% | 61% | 74% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/11 | 7/12 | 17/30 | 14/25 | 44/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 58% | 57% | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 4/6 | 3/8 | 4/6 | 16/29 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 67% | 38% | 67% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 25 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4/5 | 8/11 | 3/4 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | 73% | 75% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Jan ChoinskiChoinski (0-1) – H2H and prediction
