Aryna Sabalenka and Mayar Sherif will face off in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.102
Mayar Sherif -> 6.9
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mayar Sherif
There is no head to head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Mayar Sherif since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), Sabalenka got to the quarter after defeating Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-4 7-5 and Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-1.
In the 4th round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Andreeva (6-3 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Andreeva’s 44. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 16 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka struck 3 aces and she was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 53% of her first serves in, winning 67% (16/24) of the points behind her 1st serve and 71% (15/21) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Andreeva 5 times after converting 38% of her break points (5/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (289-144). 6-1 on clay in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate54-33 record in the last 8 years on clay.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she defeated Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Aryna has an aggregate 26-4 win-loss record in 2023, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Mayar Sherif
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36-26 | 1-6 | 35-16 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-23 | 0-6 | 36-16 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-25 | 4-12 | 24-10 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-17 | 1-12 | 26-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 37-22 | 10-11 | 26-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 59, Mayar reached the quarter after defeating Camila Giorgi 4-6 6-4 ret., Anhelina Kalinina 6-2 7-63, Caroline Garcia 7-62 6-3 and Elise Mertens 6-4 0-6 6-4.
In the 4th round, Sherif defeated Mertens (6-4 0-6 6-4).During the match Sherif scored less points (3) than Mertens. In fact, the world no. 2 won 95 points vs Mertens’s. That means that Sherif was more focused during the important points. The Egyptian was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Sherif couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Mayar Sherif lost the serve 8 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Sherif put 72% of her first serves in, winning 52% (41/79) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (10/30) on the 2nd serve. The Egyptian broke Mertens 7 times after converting 58% of her break points (7/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mayar has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
The Egyptian’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the W100 Oeiras.
Sherif has a compiled 11-10 win-loss record in 2023, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the qualifications in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Sherif |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 57 | 89 |
| Pts | 213-170 | 303-288 |
| Total Points | 383 | 591 |
| Winners | 71 | 140 |
| %Winners | 33% | 46% |
Sabalenka played 3 matches while Sherif competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Mayar Sherif conceded 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sabalenka has played 4 set(s) less than Sherif (6 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 32 games less than Sherif. Sabalenka scored 71 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Mayar struck 140 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Sherif |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 1st in | 111/178 | 231/315 |
| %1st in | 62% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 71/111 | 140/231 |
| %1st pts | 64% | 61% |
| 2nd pts | 39/67 | 39/84 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 46% |
Sabalenka made 14 aces (4.7 per match). Sherif made 7 aces (1.8 per match). Sabalenka won 64% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Sherif won 61% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Sherif |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 18 |
| Converted | 15/30 | 18/33 |
| % Converted | 50% | 55% |
| Conceded | 14 | 34 |
| Saved | 8 | 18 |
| % Saved | 57% | 53% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 16 |
Aryna broke her opponents 15 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Belarussian lost her serve 6 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Mayar broke her opponents 18 times with a 55% conversion rate. Sherif conceded her serve 16 times and she saved 53% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Cirstea |
R3 Camila Osorio Serrano |
R4 Andreeva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 16 | 57 | |
| pts | 67-54 | 80-72 | 66-44 | 213-170 | |
| Total points | 121 | 152 | 110 | 383 | |
| Winners | 30 | 25 | 16 | 71 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 31% | 24% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 46/64 | 41/69 | 24/45 | 111/178 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 59% | 53% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 30/46 | 25/41 | 16/24 | 71/111 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 61% | 67% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 15/28 | 15/21 | 39/67 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 54% | 71% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 15/30 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 42% | 38% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 25% | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Sherif | ||||||
| R1 Giorgi |
R2 Kalinina |
R3 Garcia |
R4 Mertens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 ret. | 6-2 7-63 | 7-62 6-3 | 6-4 0-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 21 | 22 | 26 | 89 | |
| pts | 66-71 | 70-55 | 72-64 | 95-98 | 303-288 | |
| Total points | 137 | 125 | 136 | 193 | 591 | |
| Winners | 33 | 31 | 35 | 41 | 140 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 54/75 | 46/60 | 52/71 | 79/109 | 231/315 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 77% | 73% | 72% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 33/54 | 31/46 | 35/52 | 41/79 | 140/231 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 67% | 67% | 52% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/21 | 7/14 | 10/19 | 10/30 | 39/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 50% | 53% | 33% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 5/8 | 4/7 | 7/12 | 18/33 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 63% | 57% | 58% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 34 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 1/4 | 4/7 | 9/17 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 25% | 57% | 53% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWWWLWWWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Dennis NevoloNevolo – Jorge MonteroMontero (6-1 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniel NguyenNguyen – Liam CaruanaCaruana (6-2 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kevin KingKing – Makoto OchiOchi (7-5 1-6 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Roberto Cid SuberviCid Subervi – Benjamin SigouinSigouin (6-4 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Martina TrevisanTrevisan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Irina-Camelia BeguBegu (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Mayar SherifSherif – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
