Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Nardi will face off in the 2nd round of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:30 pm on COURT 2. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.222
Luca Nardi -> 4.3
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Luca Nardi
This will be the 2nd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Nardi square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Nardi (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Nardi won 4-6 7-6(2) 6-3 in the 1st round in M25 Santa Margherita Di Pula back in 2019.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45-22 | 18-11 | 19-4 | 8-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 21, Musetti reached the 2nd round after beating Miomir Kecmanovic 7-61 6-0.
In the 1st round, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Kecmanovic (7-61 6-0). During the match, Musetti scored 70 points vs Kecmanovic’s 43. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Musetti struck 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Lorenzo Musetti was extremely efficient on serve to win 81% (30/37) of his 1st serve and 64% (14/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Kecmanovic 3 times.
Musetti has a winning match record in the last 6 years having won 58% of his matches (149-110). 3-4 on clay in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Musetti has a compiled88-49 match record in the last 6 years on clay.
The Italian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Australia.
Lorenzo has an aggregate 7-8 win-loss record in 2023, 3-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Luca Nardi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-30 | 14-13 | 8-9 | 8-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-27 | 14-14 | 8-5 | 9-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-36 | 20-10 | 8-13 | 12-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-20 | 5-2 | 11-10 | 17-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-24 | 3-3 | 26-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 159, Nardi got to the 2nd round after defeating Constant Lestienne 6-3 6-76 6-2, Oscar Otte 6-75 6-3 7-64 and Valentin Vacherot 7-5 7-5.
In the 1st round, Luca had a good straight sets win against Vacherot (7-5 7-5). During the match Nardi scored 83 points vs Vacherot’s 74. Nardi was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Nardi scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Luca Nardi lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Nardi put 61% of his first serves in, winning 66% (29/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (17/28) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Vacherot 4 times after converting 29% of his break points (4/14).
Luca’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Pune Challenger.
Luca has a composed 12-11 win-loss record in 2023, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Luca has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 19 | 89 |
| Pts | 70-43 | 317-280 |
| Total Points | 113 | 597 |
| Winners | 30 | 112 |
| %Winners | 43% | 35% |
Musetti played 1 match while Nardi competed in 3 matches. Nardi started his run from the qualifications while Musetti had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Luca Nardi surrendered 2 sets while Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t dropped a set so far. Musetti has played 6 set(s) less than Nardi (2 vs 8). Therefore, Musetti played 70 games less than Nardi. The Italian scored 30 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Luca fired 112 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 1 |
| 1st in | 37/59 | 181/304 |
| %1st in | 63% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 30/37 | 112/181 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 62% |
| 2nd pts | 14/22 | 71/123 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 58% |
Musetti blasted 6 aces . Nardi made 3 aces (1 per match). Musetti won 81% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 62% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 17 |
| Converted | 3/3 | 17/36 |
| % Converted | 100% | 47% |
| Conceded | 2 | 28 |
| Saved | 2 | 17 |
| % Saved | 100% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 11 |
The Italian broke his opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. Musetti quite strong on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 2 break points. Luca broke his opponents 17 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | |||
| R1 Kecmanovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-61 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 70-43 | 70-43 | |
| Total points | 113 | 113 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 37/59 | 37/59 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 30/37 | 30/37 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/22 | 14/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 3/3 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Nardi | |||||
| Q1 Lestienne |
Q3 Otte |
R1 Vacherot |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-76 6-2 | 6-75 6-3 7-64 | 7-5 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 35 | 24 | 89 | |
| pts | 109-92 | 125-114 | 83-74 | 317-280 | |
| Total points | 201 | 239 | 157 | 597 | |
| Winners | 38 | 45 | 29 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 36% | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 59/105 | 78/127 | 44/72 | 181/304 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 61% | 61% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 38/59 | 45/78 | 29/44 | 112/181 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 58% | 66% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/46 | 29/49 | 17/28 | 71/123 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 59% | 61% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 6 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 7/11 | 6/11 | 4/14 | 17/36 | |
| Converted % | 64% | 55% | 29% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 13 | 4 | 28 | |
| Saved | 7/11 | 8/13 | 2/4 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 62% | 50% | 176% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWLLW
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