Juan Pablo Varillas and Luca Van Assche will square off in the final of the Sanremo Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTRALE. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Juan Pablo Varillas who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Juan Pablo Varillas is the pick to win this match.
Juan Pablo Varillas -> 1.67
Luca Van Assche -> 2.14
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Prediction and head to head Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Luca Van Assche
There is no head to head record between Juan Pablo Varillas and Luca Van Assche since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Juan Pablo Varillas
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27-31 | 0-5 | 27-25 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 29-29 | 4-7 | 23-17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 53-27 | 2-3 | 51-23 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 51-23 | 0-2 | 51-20 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 8-14 | 1-2 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 88, Juan reached the final after beating Federico Arnaboldi 6-4 7-61, Andrea Pellegrino 6-4 1-6 6-1, Andrea Vavassori 3-6 6-3 6-4 and Kimmer Coppejans 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal, Pablo Patino-Samudio had a good straight sets win against Coppejans (6-3 6-4). During the match, Pablo Patino-Samudio scored 69 points vs Coppejans’s 52. Juan was quite aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Regarding the service games, Pablo Patino-Samudio fired 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Juan Pablo Varillas was extremely efficient on serve to win 83% (20/24) of his 1st serve and 54% (15/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Pablo Patino-Samudio broke Coppejans 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Peruvian has lost 2 set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.
Pablo Patino-Samudio has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (375-231). 11-5 on clay in 2023. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Pablo Patino-Samudio has an overall 341-196 record in the last years on clay.
Juan’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Buenos Aires and the Sanremo Challenger.
Pablo Patino-Samudio has an overall 13-8 win-loss record in 2023, 11-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Sanremo Challenger
Pablo Patino-Samudio has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Van Assche
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33-36 | 15-15 | 8-10 | 8-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-30 | 1-7 | 15-11 | 15-9 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 55-31 | 0-1 | 40-20 | 15-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-22 | 3-2 | 8-7 | 15-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 108 (career-high), Luca reached the final after defeating Ryan Peniston 2-6 6-3 6-2, Giovanni Fonio 6-3 6-3, Alexandre Muller 6-2 6-1 and Vit Kopriva 7-64 6-2.
In the semifinal, The French player had a good straight sets win against Kopriva (7-64 6-2). During the match Van Assche scored 73 points vs Kopriva’s 56. The French player was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about serving, Van Assche managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Van Assche lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Van Assche put 57% of his first serves in, winning 76% (28/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Luca broke Kopriva 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Van Assche has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Pau Challenger where he beat Ugo Humbert in the final 7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(6).
Luca has a compiled 12-7 win-loss record in 2023, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pablo Patino-Samudio | Van Assche |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 94 | 79 |
| Pts | 314-263 | 292-237 |
| Total Points | 577 | 529 |
| Winners | 117 | 110 |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% |
Both Pablo Patino-Samudio and Van Assche played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Juan Pablo Varillas lost 2 sets, while Luca Van Assche dropped 1 set. Pablo Patino-Samudio has played 1 set more than Van Assche (10 vs 9). Therefore, Pablo Patino-Samudio played 15 games more than Van Assche. Juan scored 117 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The French player recorded 110 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pablo Patino-Samudio | Van Assche |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| 1st in | 157/270 | 157/283 |
| %1st in | 58% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 117/157 | 110/157 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 72/113 | 60/126 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 48% |
Pablo Patino-Samudio managed to score 15 aces (3.8 per match). Van Assche managed to score 9 aces (2.3 per match). Pablo Patino-Samudio won 75% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Van Assche won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pablo Patino-Samudio | Van Assche |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 20 |
| Converted | 11/26 | 20/28 |
| % Converted | 42% | 71% |
| Conceded | 14 | 29 |
| Saved | 8 | 20 |
| % Saved | 57% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 9 |
Juan broke his opponents 11 times with a 42% conversion rate. Juan dropped his serve 6 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 20 times with a 71% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Pablo Patino-Samudio | ||||||
| R1 Arnaboldi |
R2 Pellegrino |
1/4 Vavassori |
1/2 Coppejans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-61 | 6-4 1-6 6-1 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 24 | 28 | 19 | 94 | |
| pts | 82-65 | 73-67 | 90-79 | 69-52 | 314-263 | |
| Total points | 147 | 140 | 169 | 121 | 577 | |
| Winners | 26 | 31 | 40 | 20 | 117 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 42% | 44% | 29% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 32/65 | 43/68 | 58/85 | 24/52 | 157/270 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 63% | 68% | 46% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 26/32 | 31/43 | 40/58 | 20/24 | 117/157 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 72% | 69% | 83% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/33 | 15/25 | 17/27 | 15/28 | 72/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 76% | 60% | 63% | 54% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 1/1 | 3/6 | 3/8 | 4/11 | 11/26 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 38% | 36% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3/5 | 2/4 | 0/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 60% | 50% | 0% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Van Assche | ||||||
| R1 Peniston |
R2 Fonio |
1/4 Muller |
1/2 Kopriva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | 7-64 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 18 | 15 | 21 | 79 | |
| pts | 89-78 | 64-54 | 66-49 | 73-56 | 292-237 | |
| Total points | 167 | 118 | 115 | 129 | 529 | |
| Winners | 28 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 41% | 42% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 46/85 | 38/63 | 36/70 | 37/65 | 157/283 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 60% | 51% | 57% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 28/46 | 26/38 | 28/36 | 28/37 | 110/157 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 68% | 78% | 76% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/39 | 11/25 | 11/34 | 13/28 | 60/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 44% | 32% | 46% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 5/5 | 6/9 | 5/8 | 20/28 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 100% | 67% | 63% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 29 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 1/4 | 20 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 80% | 90% | 25% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
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