Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will play each other in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on Stadium 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.58
Elena Rybakina -> 2.38
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina square off. The head to head is 4-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Sabalenka won 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the final in at the Australian Open back in January 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina – Australian Open 28-January-2023
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Belarussian got to the final after beating Evgeniya Rodina 6-2 6-0, Lesya Tsurenko w/o, Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 2-6 6-4, Cori Gauff 6-4 6-0 and Maria Sakkari 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Sakkari (6-2 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 65 points vs Sakkari’s 49. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 56% of her first serves in, winning 74% (23/31) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Sakkari 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 67% of her matches (280-141). 17-1 on hard in 2023. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed171-77 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Linda Noskova in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and at the Australian Open where she beat Elena Rybakina in the final 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Aryna has an aggregate 17-1 win-loss record in 2023, 17-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10 (career-high), Elena reached the final after beating Sofia Kenin 7-66 7-65, Paula Badosa Gibert 6-3 7-5, Varvara Gracheva 6-3 6-0, Karolina Muchova 7-64 2-6 6-4 and Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-2 6-2). During the match Rybakina scored 62 points vs Swiatek’s 37. Elena was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about serving, Rybakina managed to score 7 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 61% of her first serves in, winning 82% (28/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (9/22) on the 2nd serve. Elena was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Swiatek 5 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elena has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Elena’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in at the Australian Open .
Elena has a compiled 15-4 win-loss record in 2023, 15-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 74 | 109 |
| Pts | 274-209 | 407-339 |
| Total Points | 483 | 746 |
| Winners | 112 | 154 |
| %Winners | 41% | 38% |
Sabalenka played 4 matches while Rybakina competed in 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Elena Rybakina surrendered 1 set. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Rybakina (9 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 35 games less than Rybakina. Sabalenka scored 112 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Elena made 154 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 25 | 32 |
| Avg per match | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| 1st in | 144/230 | 209/383 |
| %1st in | 63% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 112/144 | 154/209 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 39/86 | 90/174 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 52% |
Sabalenka fired 25 aces (6.3 per match). Rybakina fired 32 aces (6.4 per match). Sabalenka won 78% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 20 |
| Converted | 17/41 | 20/45 |
| % Converted | 41% | 44% |
| Conceded | 12 | 34 |
| Saved | 7 | 25 |
| % Saved | 58% | 74% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 9 |
Aryna broke her opponents 17 times with a 41% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. The Kazakhstani broke her opponents 20 times with a 44% conversion rate. Elena conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R2 Rodina |
R3 Tsurenko |
R4 Krejcikova |
1/4 Gauff |
1/2 Sakkari |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | w/o | 6-3 2-6 6-4 | 6-4 6-0 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | – | 27 | 16 | 17 | 74 | |
| pts | 64-38 | – | 86-86 | 59-36 | 65-49 | 274-209 | |
| Total points | 102 | – | 172 | 95 | 114 | 483 | |
| Winners | 24 | – | 39 | 26 | 23 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 38% | – | 45% | 44% | 35% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | – | 11 | 5 | 4 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | – | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 30/50 | – | 53/84 | 30/41 | 31/55 | 144/230 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | – | 63% | 73% | 56% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | – | 39/53 | 26/30 | 23/31 | 112/144 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | – | 74% | 87% | 74% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | – | 12/31 | 6/11 | 12/24 | 39/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | – | 39% | 55% | 50% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | – | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | – | 3/11 | 4/8 | 5/10 | 17/41 | |
| Converted % | 42% | – | 27% | 50% | 50% | 41% | |
| Conceded | 4 | – | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | – | 1/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 25% | – | 50% | 35% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Rybakina | |||||||
| R2 Kenin |
R3 Badosa |
R4 Gracheva |
1/4 Muchova |
1/2 Swiatek |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-66 7-65 | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 6-0 | 7-64 2-6 6-4 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 21 | 15 | 31 | 16 | 109 | |
| pts | 90-80 | 76-63 | 73-53 | 106-106 | 62-37 | 407-339 | |
| Total points | 170 | 139 | 126 | 212 | 99 | 746 | |
| Winners | 39 | 30 | 16 | 41 | 28 | 154 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 39% | 22% | 39% | 45% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 32 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 49/89 | 44/76 | 28/58 | 54/104 | 34/56 | 209/383 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 58% | 48% | 52% | 61% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 39/49 | 30/44 | 16/28 | 41/54 | 28/34 | 154/209 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 68% | 57% | 76% | 82% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/40 | 19/32 | 16/30 | 26/50 | 9/22 | 90/174 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 59% | 53% | 52% | 41% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 7/12 | 2/14 | 5/5 | 20/45 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 58% | 14% | 100% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5/6 | 9/11 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 83% | 82% | 50% | 75% | 72% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWL
WWLLWLLWWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Frederico GilGil – Pablo Vivero GonzalezVivero Gonzalez (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (0-4) – H2H and prediction
