Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.285
Elena Rybakina -> 3.64
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina
This will be the 3rd time that Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Rybakina won 6-4 6-4 in the 4th round in at the Australian Open back in January 2023.
Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek – Australian Open 22-January-2023
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25-3 | 22-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Swiatek reached the semifinal after defeating Claire Liu 6-0 6-1, Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 6-3 7-61, Emma Raducanu 6-3 6-1 and Sorana Cirstea 6-2 6-3.
In the quarter, Iga had a good straight sets win against Cirstea (6-2 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 60 points vs Cirstea’s 43. Swiatek was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Iga Swiatek lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Swiatek put 65% of her first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (9/18) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek broke Cirstea 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Iga hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 60% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 80% of her matches (233-59). 16-3 on hard in 2023. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Swiatek has an overall107-32 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Doha where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 6-0.
Iga has a composed 16-3 win-loss record in 2023, 16-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23-4 | 22-4 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 18-5 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10 (career-high), Rybakina got to the semifinal after defeating Sofia Kenin 7-66 7-65, Paula Badosa Gibert 6-3 7-5, Varvara Gracheva 6-3 6-0 and Karolina Muchova 7-64 2-6 6-4.
In the quarter, Elena defeated Muchova (7-64 2-6 6-4). During the match Rybakina and Muchova scored the same amount of points (106). However, the world no. 1 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Elena was exceptionally aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about serving, Rybakina managed to score 6 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Elena Rybakina was quite efficient on serve to win 76% (41/54) of her 1st serve and 52% (26/50) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve 3 times. Rybakina broke Muchova twice after converting 14% of her break points (2/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elena has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Kazakhstani’s best result of the season was getting to the final in at the Australian Open .
The Kazakhstani has an aggregate 14-4 win-loss record in 2023, 14-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 68 | 93 |
| Pts | 260-172 | 345-302 |
| Total Points | 432 | 647 |
| Winners | 108 | 126 |
| %Winners | 42% | 37% |
Both Swiatek and Rybakina played 4 matches. At the moment, Elena Rybakina conceded 1 set while Iga Swiatek hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Swiatek has played 1 set(s) less than Rybakina (8 vs 9). Therefore, Swiatek played 25 games less than Rybakina. Swiatek scored 108 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani blasted 126 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 25 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 6.3 |
| 1st in | 147/213 | 175/327 |
| %1st in | 69% | 54% |
| 1st pts | 108/147 | 126/175 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 31/66 | 81/152 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 53% |
Swiatek made 4 aces (1 per match). Rybakina made 25 aces (6.3 per match). Swiatek won 73% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 15 |
| Converted | 19/35 | 15/40 |
| % Converted | 54% | 38% |
| Conceded | 12 | 30 |
| Saved | 6 | 22 |
| % Saved | 50% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 8 |
Iga broke her opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. Swiatek lost her serve 6 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Kazakhstani broke her opponents 15 times with a 38% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | ||||||
| R2 Liu |
R3 Andreescu |
R4 Raducanu |
1/4 Cirstea |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-1 | 6-3 7-61 | 6-3 6-1 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 68 | |
| pts | 57-26 | 79-66 | 64-37 | 60-43 | 260-172 | |
| Total points | 83 | 145 | 101 | 103 | 432 | |
| Winners | 24 | 31 | 29 | 24 | 108 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 39% | 45% | 40% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 30/41 | 50/73 | 33/47 | 34/52 | 147/213 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 68% | 70% | 65% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 31/50 | 29/33 | 24/34 | 108/147 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 62% | 88% | 71% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/11 | 10/23 | 6/14 | 9/18 | 31/66 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 43% | 43% | 50% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/8 | 4/10 | 5/8 | 19/35 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 63% | 40% | 63% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 4/8 | 2/2 | 0/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 100% | 0% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Rybakina | ||||||
| R2 Kenin |
R3 Badosa |
R4 Gracheva |
1/4 Muchova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-66 7-65 | 6-3 7-5 | 6-3 6-0 | 7-64 2-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 21 | 15 | 31 | 93 | |
| pts | 90-80 | 76-63 | 73-53 | 106-106 | 345-302 | |
| Total points | 170 | 139 | 126 | 212 | 647 | |
| Winners | 39 | 30 | 16 | 41 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 39% | 22% | 39% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 17 | |
| 1st in | 49/89 | 44/76 | 28/58 | 54/104 | 175/327 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 58% | 48% | 52% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 39/49 | 30/44 | 16/28 | 41/54 | 126/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 68% | 57% | 76% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/40 | 19/32 | 16/30 | 26/50 | 81/152 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 59% | 53% | 52% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 15 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 4/8 | 7/12 | 2/14 | 15/40 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 50% | 58% | 14% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 30 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 5/6 | 9/11 | 3/6 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 83% | 82% | 50% | 72% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLWWWWWW
WLWWWWWWWL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Frederico GilGil – Jaime Pulgar-GarciaPulgar-Garcia (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elena RybakinaRybakina (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (3-4) – H2H and prediction
