Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will square off in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.49
Aryna Sabalenka -> 2.78
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This will be the 5th time that Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-2 6-1 in the semifinal in Rome back in May 2022.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka – Rome 14-May-2022
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 16-5 | 6-4 | 7-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Swiatek reached the semifinal after defeating Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-0, Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2, Lauren Davis 6-3 6-4, Jule Niemeier 2-6 6-4 6-0 and Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-64.
In the quarter, Iga had a good straight sets win against Pegula (6-3 7-64). During the match, Swiatek scored 79 points vs Pegula’s 64. Swiatek was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace throughout the match and she committed only 3 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 6 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 67% of her first serves in, winning 50% (24/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek broke Pegula 7 times after converting 64% of her break points (7/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Swiatek has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 79% of her matches (205-54). 33-5 on hard in 2022. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has an overall82-28 record in the last 7 years on hard.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in in Doha where she beat Anett Kontaveit in the final 6-2 6-0 and in in Indian Wells where she defeated Maria Sakkari in the final 6-4 6-1 and in in Miami where she defeated Naomi Osaka in the final 6-4 6-0 and in in Stuttgart where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-2 6-2 and in in Rome where she defeated Ons Jabeur in the final 6-2 6-2 and in at the French Open where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-1 6-3.
The Pole has a compiled 55-7 win-loss record in 2022, 33-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 29-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 | 9-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Sabalenka reached the semifinal after defeating Catherine Harrison 6-1 6-3, Kaia Kanepi 2-6 7-68 6-4, Clara Burel 6-0 6-2, Danielle Rose Collins 3-6 6-3 6-2 and Karolina Pliskova 6-1 7-64.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Pliskova (6-1 7-64). During the match Sabalenka scored 70 points vs Pliskova’s 56. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
About the serving games, Sabalenka made 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty efficient on serve to win 72% (31/43) of her 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Pliskova 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The Belarussian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch.
The Belarussian has a composed 29-17 win-loss record in 2022, 16-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 12 |
| Tot Games | 97 | 107 |
| Pts | 375-292 | 397-333 |
| Total Points | 667 | 730 |
| Winners | 124 | 152 |
| %Winners | 33% | 38% |
Both Swiatek and Sabalenka played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek surrendered 1 set, while Aryna Sabalenka conceded 2 sets. Swiatek has played 1 set(s) less than Sabalenka (11 vs 12). Therefore, Swiatek played 10 games less than Sabalenka. Swiatek scored 124 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Aryna recorded 152 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 2.2 | 4.6 |
| 1st in | 201/315 | 236/374 |
| %1st in | 64% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 124/201 | 152/236 |
| %1st pts | 62% | 64% |
| 2nd pts | 62/114 | 67/138 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 49% |
Swiatek fired 11 aces (2.2 per match). Sabalenka blasted 23 aces (4.6 per match). Swiatek won 62% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Sabalenka won 64% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 28 | 26 |
| Converted | 28/59 | 26/57 |
| % Converted | 47% | 46% |
| Conceded | 30 | 28 |
| Saved | 15 | 15 |
| % Saved | 50% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 15 | 13 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 28 times with a 47% conversion rate. Iga surrendered her serve 15 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Aryna broke her opponents 26 times with a 46% conversion rate. Sabalenka conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R1 Paolini |
R2 Stephens |
R3 Davis |
R4 Niemeier |
1/4 Pegula |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 6-4 | 2-6 6-4 6-0 | 6-3 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 17 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 97 | |
| pts | 57-34 | 59-43 | 84-69 | 96-82 | 79-64 | 375-292 | |
| Total points | 91 | 102 | 153 | 178 | 143 | 667 | |
| Winners | 16 | 23 | 33 | 28 | 24 | 124 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 39% | 39% | 29% | 30% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 25/40 | 30/49 | 44/73 | 54/81 | 48/72 | 201/315 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 61% | 60% | 67% | 67% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 16/25 | 23/30 | 33/44 | 28/54 | 24/48 | 124/201 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 77% | 75% | 52% | 50% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 11/19 | 14/29 | 16/27 | 12/24 | 62/114 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 58% | 48% | 59% | 50% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 28 | |
| Converted | 7/9 | 4/12 | 3/14 | 7/13 | 7/11 | 28/59 | |
| Converted % | 78% | 33% | 21% | 54% | 64% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 30 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 7/12 | 4/10 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 40% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | |
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R1 Harrison |
R2 Kanepi |
R3 Burel |
R4 Collins |
1/4 Pliskova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 2-6 7-68 6-4 | 6-0 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 6-2 | 6-1 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 31 | 14 | 26 | 20 | 107 | |
| pts | 62-47 | 97-104 | 69-40 | 99-86 | 70-56 | 397-333 | |
| Total points | 109 | 201 | 109 | 185 | 126 | 730 | |
| Winners | 22 | 46 | 19 | 34 | 31 | 152 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 47% | 28% | 34% | 44% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 28 | |
| 1st in | 35/55 | 72/114 | 29/49 | 57/94 | 43/62 | 236/374 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 63% | 59% | 61% | 69% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 46/72 | 19/29 | 34/57 | 31/43 | 152/236 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 64% | 66% | 60% | 72% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | 17/42 | 10/20 | 19/37 | 12/19 | 67/138 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 40% | 50% | 51% | 63% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 26 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 4/6 | 7/16 | 6/15 | 3/7 | 26/57 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 67% | 44% | 40% | 43% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 28 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 6/10 | 0/0 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 44% | 60% | 60% | – | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
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