Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexander Bublik will face off in the 2^nd round of the U.S. Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 11:00 am on Court 11. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 4 sets.

As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.3
Alexander Bublik -> 3.52

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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexander Bublik

This will be the 4^th time that Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexander Bublik clash against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Carreno-Busta won 4-6 7-6(3) 4-3 ret. in the 2^nd round in Monte carlo back in April 2022.

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
89

High
10

LWLLWWWWLW

See allSTATS

Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2025	41-28	25-10	14-14	2-4	0-0	0-0
2024	10-12	7-6	2-4	1-1	0-1	0-0
2023	2-5	2-4	0-0	0-1	0-0	0-0
2022	37-25	19-8	11-9	5-5	2-3	0-0
2021	38-18	14-8	17-4	5-4	2-2	0-0

See all years

Ranked no. 15, Pablo reached the 2^nd round after beating Dominic Thiem 7-5 6-1 5-7 6-3.

In the 1^st round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Thiem (7-5 6-1 5-7 6-3). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 137 points vs Thiem’s 114. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta fired 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve 4 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 67% of his first serves in, winning 65% (51/78) of the points behind his 1st serve and 68% (26/38) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Thiem 8 times after converting 42% of his break points (8/19).

Carreno-Busta has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (398-221). 16-6 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Carreno-Busta has a composed 128-71 match record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title in in Montreal where he defeated Hubert Hurkacz in the final 3-6 6-3 6-3.

Carreno-Busta has a composed 29-18 win-loss record in 2022, 16-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

U.S. Open

Carreno-Busta's Record

Alexander Bublik

Alexander Bublik

0 - 0win/loss

Rank
11

High
11

LLWWWWLWWL

See allSTATS

Year	Total	Hard	Clay	I.hard	Grass	Carpet
2025	48-24	12-11	23-6	8-6	5-1	0-0
2024	25-25	10-11	5-6	6-4	4-4	0-0
2023	28-30	3-12	7-9	9-7	9-2	0-0
2022	33-27	5-8	2-6	17-8	9-5	0-0
2021	35-30	14-12	4-6	10-8	7-4	0-0

See all years

Ranked no. 47, Alexander reached the 2^nd round after defeating Hugo Gaston 6-4 6-4 6-4.

In the 1^st round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Gaston (6-4 6-4 6-4). During the match Bublik scored 96 points vs Gaston’s 79. Bublik was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Talking about serving, Bublik recorded 13 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Alexander Bublik lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 59% of his first serves in, winning 77% (40/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (17/36) on the 2nd serve. Bublik broke Gaston 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).

His best result of the current season was winning the title in in Montpellier where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-4 6-3.

Bublik has a composed 23-19 win-loss record in 2022, 5-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2019. See his history.

U.S. Open

Bublik's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Both Carreno-Busta and Bublik played 1 match. At the moment, Pablo Carreno-Busta lost 1 set while Alexander Bublik hasn’t dropped a set so far. Carreno-Busta has played 1 set more than Bublik (4 vs 3). Therefore, Carreno-Busta played 10 games more than Bublik. The Spaniard scored 51 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani recorded 40 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Carreno-Busta struck 8 aces . Bublik recorded 13 aces . Carreno-Busta won 65% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 77% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.

How they played the important points

Pablo broke his opponent 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Pablo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. Bublik broke his opponent 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Head 2 Head

• 0Slam
• 7Main
• 14Chall
• 12Minor

• 0Slam
• 8Main
• 7Chall
• 4Minor

Pablo
Carreno-Busta

4:0

Alexander
Bublik

Rank

89

High

10

2Hard0

1Clay0

1I.hard0

Rank

11

High

11

Win Loss

Carreno-Busta

LWLLWWWWLW

Bublik

LLWWWWLWWL

2025 2024 2023

39 - 25

48 - 23

25-10

Hard

12-10

1-2

I Hard

8-6

13-13

Clay

23-6

0-0

Grass

5-1

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• James DuckworthDuckworth – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (4-6 7-6⁰ 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Steve JohnsonJohnson (6-3 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Joao SousaSousa – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (1-6 7-6⁴ 7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Benoit PairePaire (6-0 7-6¹ 6-0) – See score progression
• Richard GasquetGasquet – Taro DanielDaniel (6-4 6-7¹ 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Daniel EvansEvans – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-4 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Peter GojowczykGojowczyk (6-2 6-4 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Pavel KotovKotov (7-6⁴ 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Sebastian BaezBaez (7-5 7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• John IsnerIsner – Federico DelbonisDelbonis (6-3 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (6-1 6-4 6-7³ 6-1) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Filip KrajinovicKrajinovic (7-5 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Cristian GarinGarin – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (3-6 7-6³ 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Stefan KozlovKozlov (6-2 6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – Alex MolcanMolcan (6-4 4-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Quentin HalysHalys (4-6 7-6⁴ 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Kyle EdmundEdmund (6-3 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Dominic ThiemThiem (7-5 6-1 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-6¹ 6-1 5-7 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (2-6 1-6 6-2 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Jeff WolfWolf – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Pedro CachinCachin – Aljaz BedeneBedene (6-4 6-3 5-7 1-6 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Thanasi KokkinakisKokkinakis (6-3 6-4 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Brandon HoltHolt – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (6-7³ 7-6¹ 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexander BublikBublik – Hugo GastonGaston (6-4 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-0 6-1 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Yibing WuWu – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-3 6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Emil RuusuvuoriRuusuvuori (6-4 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Facundo BagnisBagnis (5-7 7-6³ 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Tim Van RijthovenVan Rijthoven – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (3-6 6-7⁴ 7-6⁹ 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Hugo GrenierGrenier – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (4-6 6-2 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Marton FucsovicsFucsovics – Maxime CressyCressy (6-7⁴ 7-5 5-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Alexander RitschardRitschard (6-3 6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Denis KudlaKudla (3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (6-4 7-6⁷ ret.) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Tomas MachacMachac (3-6 7-6³ 6-1 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Ben SheltonShelton (7-6⁶ 3-6 7-6⁵ 6-7⁸ 6-3) – See score progression
• Emilio NavaNava – John MillmanMillman (7-6⁷ 4-6 7-6⁴ 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Andy MurrayMurray – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (7-5 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Bernabe Zapata MirallesZapata Miralles (4-6 6-3 2-6 6-0 7-5) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-3 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Nicolas JarryJarry (6-2 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Steve JohnsonJohnson (6-3 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Pavel KotovKotov (7-6(4) 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• James DuckworthDuckworth – Christopher O’ConnellO’Connell (4-6 7-6(0) 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Daniel EvansEvans – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-4 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Federico CoriaCoria – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (7-5 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Sebastian BaezBaez (7-5 7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Benoit PairePaire (6-0 7-6(1) 6-0) – See score progression
• Joao SousaSousa – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (1-6 7-6(4) 7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression
• John IsnerIsner – Federico DelbonisDelbonis (6-3 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Peter GojowczykGojowczyk (6-2 6-4 7-6(5)) – See score progression
• Richard GasquetGasquet – Taro DanielDaniel (6-4 6-7(1) 6-2 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Fernando VerdascoVerdasco – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Andy MurrayMurray – Emilio NavaNava (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sam QuerreyQuerrey – Ilya IvashkaIvashka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Fabio FogniniFognini – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• John IsnerIsner – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marin CilicCilic – Maximilian MartererMarterer (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Gijs BrouwerBrouwer (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• David GoffinGoffin – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• James DuckworthDuckworth – Daniel EvansEvans (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alexander BublikBublik (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler – Mikael YmerYmer (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanSebastian Schwartzman – Jack SockSock (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Norbert GombosGombos – Albert Ramos-VinolasRamos-Vinolas (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Federico CoriaCoria – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Nick KyrgiosKyrgios – Benjamin BonziBonzi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Laslo DjereDjere – Andrey RublevRublev (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Christian GarinGarin – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Borna CoricCoric – Enzo CouacaudCouacaud (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Oscar OtteOtte (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan – Jordan ThompsonThompson (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero – Christopher EubanksEubanks (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Joao SousaSousa (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hugo GrenierGrenier – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Jannik SinnerSinner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Tim Van RijthovenVan Rijthoven – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Jeff WolfWolf (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Yibing WuWu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Chun Hsin TsengHsin Tseng (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Dusan LajovicLajovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon HoltHolt – Pedro CachinCachin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Rafael NadalNadal (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-0) – H2H and prediction

Carreno-Busta

More Stats

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Bublik