Daria Kasatkina and Shelby Rogers will face off in the 3rd round of the French Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:00 pm on Court 7. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daria Kasatkina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daria Kasatkina is the pick to win this match.
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.51
Shelby Rogers -> 2.71
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Shelby Rogers
This will be the 2nd time that Daria Kasatkina and Shelby Rogers fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rogers (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Rogers won 6-4 5-7 6-0 in the 2nd round in Miami back in 2017.
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-22 | 12-13 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 40-23 | 24-16 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 20, Kasatkina got to the 3rd round after beating Rebecca Sramkova 6-2 6-0 and Fernanda Contreras Gomez 6-0 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Contreras Gomez (6-0 6-3). During the match, Kasatkina scored 55 points vs Contreras Gomez’s 31. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kasatkina couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve once. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 71% of her first serves in, winning 76% (19/25) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (5/10) on the 2nd serve. Kasatkina was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Contreras Gomez 6 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Darya hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 64% of the points she played.
Kasatkina has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (285-157). 9-3 on clay in 2022. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kasatkina has a compiled 108-43 record in the last years on clay.
Kasatkina’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Melbourne, Sydney and Rome.
Darya has a compiled 20-10 win-loss record in 2022, 9-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Shelby Rogers
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5-11 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 14-14 | 11-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 19-20 | 13-9 | 2-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-23 | 20-12 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 21-10 | 16-9 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 50, the American reached the 3rd round after defeating Tereza Martincova 6-4 6-3 and Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Collins (6-4 6-3). During the match Rogers scored 59 points vs Collins’s 50. Rogers was very aggressive to blast 19 winners.
About the serving games, Rogers managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Shelby Rogers lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Rogers put 60% of her first serves in, winning 61% (19/31) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Rogers broke Collins 6 times after converting 55% of her break points (6/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Shelby hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The American has an aggregate 8-10 win-loss record in 2022, 2-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2016. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 29 | 38 |
| Pts | 108-61 | 134-114 |
| Total Points | 169 | 248 |
| Winners | 45 | 41 |
| %Winners | 42% | 31% |
Both Kasatkina and Rogers played 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Kasatkina and Rogers have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Kasatkina played 9 games less than Rogers. Kasatkina scored 45 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Rogers blasted 41 winners (31%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 2 |
| 1st in | 60/76 | 63/126 |
| %1st in | 79% | 50% |
| 1st pts | 45/60 | 41/63 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 10/19 | 34/63 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 54% |
Kasatkina struck 1 ace (0.5 per match). Rogers also made 4 aces (2 per match). Kasatkina won 75% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Rogers won 65% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 10 |
| Converted | 11/12 | 10/19 |
| % Converted | 92% | 53% |
| Conceded | 2 | 10 |
| Saved | 1 | 6 |
| % Saved | 50% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Darya broke her opponents 11 times with a 92% conversion rate. Kasatkina lost her serve once and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Rogers broke her opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. Shelby conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | ||||
| R1 Sramkova |
R2 Contreras Gomez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-0 | 6-0 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 15 | 29 | |
| pts | 53-30 | 55-31 | 108-61 | |
| Total points | 83 | 86 | 169 | |
| Winners | 26 | 19 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 35% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 35/41 | 25/35 | 60/76 | |
| % 1st in | 85% | 71% | 79% | |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | 19/25 | 45/60 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 76% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/9 | 5/10 | 10/19 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 50% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 6/6 | 11/12 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 100% | 92% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 0/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 0% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rogers | ||||
| R1 Martincova |
R2 Collins |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 38 | |
| pts | 75-64 | 59-50 | 134-114 | |
| Total points | 139 | 109 | 248 | |
| Winners | 22 | 19 | 41 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 32% | 31% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 32/74 | 31/52 | 63/126 | |
| % 1st in | 43% | 60% | 50% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 19/31 | 41/63 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 61% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/42 | 10/21 | 34/63 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 48% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 6/11 | 10/19 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 55% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 1/4 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 25% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWWLLWLW
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Danka KovinicKovinic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Alize CornetCornet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Tamara ZidansekZidansek (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Irina-Camelia BeguBegu – Leolia JeanjeanJeanjean (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Shelby RogersRogers – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Camila GiorgiGiorgi – Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sloane StephensStephens – Diane ParryParry (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Martina TrevisanTrevisan – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Cori GauffGauff (0-1) – H2H and prediction
