Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.87
Novak Djokovic -> 2.02
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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz
There is no head to head record between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37-9 | 15-5 | 16-3 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 41-5 | 26-1 | 11-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Serbian reached the semifinal after defeating Gael Monfils 6-3 6-2, Andy Murray w/o and Hubert Hurkacz 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter, Novak had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (6-3 6-4). During the match, Djokovic scored 62 points vs Hurkacz’s 48. Novak was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Djokovic fired 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Novak Djokovic was pretty efficient on serve to win 81% (29/36) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Serbian broke Hurkacz twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Serbian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Djokovic has a superlative record in the last 10 years having won 87% of his matches (527-79). 5-2 on clay in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Djokovic has an aggregate 133-26 record in the last years on clay.
The Serbian’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Belgrade.
Novak has a compiled 7-3 win-loss record in 2022, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 39-7 | 10-0 | 29-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9 (career-high), Carlos got to the semifinal after defeating Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 7-5, Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-74 6-3 and Rafael Nadal 6-2 1-6 6-3.
In the quarter, Alcaraz defeated Nadal (6-2 1-6 6-3). During the match Alcaraz scored 73 points vs Nadal’s 71. The Spaniard was very aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Alcaraz scored 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 56% of his first serves in, winning 67% (26/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (16/31) on the 2nd serve. Carlos broke Nadal 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title in in Rio de Janeiro where he beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the final 6-4 6-2 and in in Miami where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 7-5 6-4 and in in Barcelona where he beat Pablo Carreno-Busta in the final 6-3 6-2.
Alcaraz has an overall 26-3 win-loss record in 2022, 14-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 36 | 77 |
| Pts | 126-95 | 243-221 |
| Total Points | 221 | 464 |
| Winners | 59 | 101 |
| %Winners | 47% | 42% |
Djokovic played 2 matches while Alcaraz competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz conceded 2 sets while Novak Djokovic hasn’t lost a set so far. Djokovic has played 4 set(s) less than Alcaraz (4 vs 8). Therefore, Djokovic played 41 games less than Alcaraz. Djokovic scored 59 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Alcaraz scored 101 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 5 |
| 1st in | 79/123 | 147/229 |
| %1st in | 64% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 59/79 | 101/147 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 27/44 | 41/82 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 50% |
Djokovic made 8 aces (4 per match). Alcaraz made 15 aces (5 per match). Djokovic won 75% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 15 |
| Converted | 5/9 | 15/21 |
| % Converted | 56% | 71% |
| Conceded | 5 | 23 |
| Saved | 5 | 15 |
| % Saved | 100% | 65% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 8 |
Djokovic broke his opponents 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. Djokovic extremely effective on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 5 break points. The Spaniard broke his opponents 15 times with a 71% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded.
| Djokovic | |||||
| R2 Monfils |
R3 Murray |
1/4 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | w/o | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | – | 19 | 36 | |
| pts | 64-47 | – | 62-48 | 126-95 | |
| Total points | 111 | – | 110 | 221 | |
| Winners | 30 | – | 29 | 59 | |
| %Winners | 47% | – | 47% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | – | 6 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | – | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 43/68 | – | 36/55 | 79/123 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | – | 65% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 30/43 | – | 29/36 | 59/79 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | – | 81% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/25 | – | 13/19 | 27/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | – | 68% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | – | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | – | 2/6 | 5/9 | |
| Converted % | 100% | – | 33% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 5 | – | 0 | 5 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | – | 0/0 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | – | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | |
| Alcaraz | |||||
| R2 Basilashvili |
R3 Norrie |
1/4 Nadal |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-4 6-74 6-3 | 6-2 1-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 32 | 24 | 77 | |
| pts | 66-48 | 104-102 | 73-71 | 243-221 | |
| Total points | 114 | 206 | 144 | 464 | |
| Winners | 23 | 52 | 26 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 50% | 36% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 35/54 | 73/105 | 39/70 | 147/229 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 70% | 56% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 23/35 | 52/73 | 26/39 | 101/147 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 71% | 67% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/19 | 14/32 | 16/31 | 41/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 44% | 52% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/7 | 4/5 | 15/21 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 71% | 80% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 9 | 9 | 23 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 7/9 | 6/9 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 78% | 67% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWLWW
WLWLLWLWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Andrey RublevRublev (6-3 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Rafael NadalNadal (6-2 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jamie Murray/Michael VenusMurray/Michael Venus – Simone Bolelli/Ivan DodigBolelli/Ivan Dodig (7-65 7-67) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Juan-Sebastian Cabal/Robert FarahCabal/Robert Farah – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Andrey RublevRublev (6-3 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Alexander ZverevZverev (7-3) – H2H and prediction
