Rafael Nadal and Taylor Harry Fritz will square off in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on Stadium 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.35
Taylor Harry Fritz -> 3.84
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Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Taylor Harry Fritz
This will be the 2nd time that Rafael Nadal and Taylor Harry Fritz fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Nadal won 6-3 6-2 in the final in Acapulco back in 2020.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Harry Fritz – Acapulco 29-February-2020
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-8 | 2-1 | 10-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Nadal reached the final after defeating Sebastian Korda 6-2 1-6 7-63, Daniel Evans 7-5 6-3, Reilly Opelka 7-63 7-65, Nick Kyrgios 7-60 5-7 6-4 and Carlos Alcaraz 6-4 4-6 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Spaniard defeated Alcaraz (6-4 4-6 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 106 points vs Alcaraz’s 102. Nadal was extremely aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about the service games, Nadal fired 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Rafael Nadal lost the serve 5 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 67% of his first serves in, winning 63% (45/72) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (16/36) on the 2nd serve. Rafael broke Alcaraz 6 times after converting 29% of his break points (6/21).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 3 set in this competition to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Nadal has a remarkable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (465-87). 20-0 on hard in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has a compiled 196-43 match record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in in Melbourne where he beat Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 and in in Acapulco where he overcame Cameron Norrie in the final 6-4 6-4.
Nadal has a compiled 20-0 win-loss record in 2022, 20-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Taylor Harry Fritz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|
Ranked no. 20, Taylor reached the final after defeating Kamil Majchrzak 6-1 6-1, Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 6-4 2-6 7-62, Alex De Minaur 3-6 6-4 7-65, Miomir Kecmanovic 7-65 3-6 6-1 and Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-4.
In the semifinal, Fritz had a good straight sets win against Rublev (7-5 6-4). During the match Fritz scored 87 points vs Rublev’s 78. Fritz was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Fritz bagged 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Taylor Harry Fritz was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (29/38) of his 1st serve and 62% (16/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Taylor broke Rublev 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Fritz’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Indian Wells.
The American has a composed 13-4 win-loss record in 2022, 11-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 13 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 139 | 128 |
| Pts | 468-426 | 451-404 |
| Total Points | 894 | 855 |
| Winners | 207 | 194 |
| %Winners | 44% | 43% |
Both Nadal and Fritz played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Rafael Nadal lost 3 sets, while Taylor Harry Fritz dropped 3 sets. Talking about their workload, Nadal and Fritz have played the same amount of sets 13. However, Nadal played 11 games more than Fritz. The Spaniard scored 207 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Fritz made 194 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 27 | 52 |
| Avg per match | 5.4 | 10.4 |
| 1st in | 291/447 | 256/403 |
| %1st in | 65% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 207/291 | 194/256 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 85/156 | 78/147 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 53% |
Nadal blasted 27 aces (5.4 per match). Fritz made 52 aces (10.4 per match). Nadal won 71% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Fritz won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 15 |
| Converted | 16/40 | 15/50 |
| % Converted | 40% | 30% |
| Conceded | 38 | 28 |
| Saved | 25 | 19 |
| % Saved | 66% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 13 | 9 |
Nadal broke his opponents 16 times with a 40% conversion rate. Rafael lost his serve 13 times and he saved 66% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 15 times with a 30% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | |||||||
| R2 Korda |
R3 Evans |
R4 Opelka |
1/4 Kyrgios |
1/2 Alcaraz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 1-6 7-63 | 7-5 6-3 | 7-63 7-65 | 7-60 5-7 6-4 | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 21 | 26 | 35 | 29 | 139 | |
| pts | 95-90 | 68-53 | 93-78 | 106-103 | 106-102 | 468-426 | |
| Total points | 185 | 121 | 171 | 209 | 208 | 894 | |
| Winners | 37 | 30 | 43 | 52 | 45 | 207 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 44% | 46% | 49% | 42% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 27 | |
| 1st in | 61/98 | 40/66 | 51/73 | 67/102 | 72/108 | 291/447 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 61% | 70% | 66% | 67% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 37/61 | 30/40 | 43/51 | 52/67 | 45/72 | 207/291 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 75% | 84% | 78% | 63% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/37 | 17/26 | 16/22 | 17/35 | 16/36 | 85/156 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 65% | 73% | 49% | 44% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/6 | 3/4 | 1/5 | 2/4 | 6/21 | 16/40 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 75% | 20% | 50% | 29% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 38 | |
| Saved | 7/11 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 9/14 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 64% | 75% | 75% | 60% | 64% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | |
| Fritz | |||||||
| R2 Majchrzak |
R3 Munar Clar |
R4 De Minaur |
1/4 Kecmanovic |
1/2 Rublev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-1 | 6-4 2-6 7-62 | 3-6 6-4 7-65 | 7-65 3-6 6-1 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 22 | 128 | |
| pts | 55-33 | 106-106 | 107-105 | 96-82 | 87-78 | 451-404 | |
| Total points | 88 | 212 | 212 | 178 | 165 | 855 | |
| Winners | 14 | 54 | 53 | 44 | 29 | 194 | |
| %Winners | 25% | 51% | 50% | 46% | 33% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 8 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 52 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 18 | |
| 1st in | 18/43 | 77/113 | 74/111 | 49/72 | 38/64 | 256/403 | |
| % 1st in | 42% | 68% | 67% | 68% | 59% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 14/18 | 54/77 | 53/74 | 44/49 | 29/38 | 194/256 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 70% | 72% | 90% | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/25 | 17/36 | 17/37 | 12/23 | 16/26 | 78/147 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 47% | 46% | 52% | 62% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 2/9 | 3/9 | 2/10 | 3/11 | 15/50 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 22% | 33% | 20% | 27% | 30% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 9/12 | 4/8 | 2/3 | 3/4 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (1-0) – H2H and prediction
