Rafael Nadal and Tommy Paul will square off in the quarter of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 8:00 pm on ESTADIO. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rafael Nadal who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Rafael Nadal is the pick to win this match.
Rafael Nadal -> 1.21
Tommy Paul -> 4.9
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Rafael Nadal vs. Tommy Paul
There is no head to head record between Rafael Nadal and Tommy Paul since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11-6 | 2-1 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Nadal reached the quarter after defeating Denis Kudla 6-3 6-2 and Stefan Kozlov 6-0 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Nadal had a good straight sets win against Kozlov (6-0 6-3). During the match, Nadal scored 52 points vs Kozlov’s 29. Rafael was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nadal scored 2 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Overall, Rafael Nadal was pretty efficient on serve to win 77% (24/31) of his 1st serve and 67% (6/9) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Kozlov 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to conquer 64% of the points he played.
Nadal has a terrific win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 84% of his matches (457-87). 12-0 on hard in 2022. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nadal has a composed 188-43 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title in in Melbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he beat Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5.
Nadal has a compiled 12-0 win-loss record in 2022, 12-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31-11 | 10-6 | 7-3 | 4-0 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 21-14 | 12-6 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 39 (career-high), Tommy reached the quarter after beating Matteo Berrettini 4-6 5-1 ret. and Dusan Lajovic 7-66 2-6 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Tommy defeated Lajovic (7-66 2-6 7-5).During the match Paul scored less points (13) than Lajovic. In fact, the world no. 5 won 103 points vs Lajovic’s. That means that Paul was more focused during the important points. Paul was extremely aggressive to blast 46 winners.
About the serving games, Paul recorded 3 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 3 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 57% of his first serves in, winning 71% (46/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (22/49) on the 2nd serve. Paul broke Lajovic twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
The American’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.
Paul has a compiled 9-4 win-loss record in 2022, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nadal | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 32 | 49 |
| Pts | 113-64 | 152-160 |
| Total Points | 177 | 312 |
| Winners | 50 | 65 |
| %Winners | 44% | 43% |
Both Nadal and Paul played 2 matches. At the moment, Tommy Paul surrendered 2 sets while Rafael Nadal hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Nadal has played 2 set(s) less than Paul (4 vs 6). Therefore, Nadal played 17 games less than Paul. The Spaniard scored 50 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Paul fired 65 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nadal | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 3 |
| 1st in | 58/80 | 89/158 |
| %1st in | 73% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 50/58 | 65/89 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 16/22 | 35/69 |
| %2nd pts | 73% | 51% |
Nadal managed to score 10 aces (5 per match). Paul struck 6 aces (3 per match). Nadal won 86% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 73% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nadal | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 4 |
| Converted | 8/11 | 4/14 |
| % Converted | 73% | 29% |
| Conceded | 1 | 14 |
| Saved | 0 | 10 |
| % Saved | 0% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Rafael broke his opponents 8 times with a 73% conversion rate. Rafael surrendered his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 4 times with a 29% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nadal | ||||
| R1 Kudla |
R2 Kozlov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 15 | 32 | |
| pts | 61-35 | 52-29 | 113-64 | |
| Total points | 96 | 81 | 177 | |
| Winners | 26 | 24 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 46% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 8 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 27/40 | 31/40 | 58/80 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 78% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 26/27 | 24/31 | 50/58 | |
| % 1st pts | 96% | 77% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/13 | 6/9 | 16/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 67% | 73% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 5/6 | 8/11 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 83% | 73% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Paul | ||||
| R1 Berrettini |
R2 Lajovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 5-1 ret. | 7-66 2-6 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 33 | 49 | |
| pts | 49-44 | 103-116 | 152-160 | |
| Total points | 93 | 219 | 312 | |
| Winners | 19 | 46 | 65 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 45% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 24/44 | 65/114 | 89/158 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 57% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 19/24 | 46/65 | 65/89 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 71% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/20 | 22/49 | 35/69 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 45% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Converted | 2/8 | 2/6 | 4/14 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 33% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 10 | 14 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 7/10 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 70% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLLWLW
LWWWWWWWWW
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Rafael NadalNadal – Tommy PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Peter GojowczykGojowczyk (3-0) – H2H and prediction
